00:00North Korea's leader Kim Jong-un will draw a dangerous conclusion from the Iran war
00:04that nuclear weapons are the ultimate insurance policy.
00:08Now that's a belief reinforced by the fate of leaders like Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi.
00:14Both were overthrown after failing to build or giving up their own nuclear weapons program.
00:19North Korea has always argued that a nuclear deterrent is essential to avoiding the same destiny.
00:24The regime's program is also far more advanced than Iran's.
00:28The country is widely assessed to have developed dozens of warheads
00:32and it continues to build intercontinental ballistic missiles that it says are capable of reaching the US mainland.
00:39Now that nuclear arsenal isn't just a bargaining chip, it's Kim's insurance policy.
00:44It protects the regime, the dynasty and his succession narrative that he's begun to craft around his daughter.
00:50For years the US and South Korea have tried to persuade North Korea to give up its weapons program
00:56through a combination of sanctions and international pressure.
01:00But they failed. Kim is now in his strongest position in years and he can legitimately argue that the
01:07Middle East crisis proves that his nuclear development was actually rational and not reckless.
01:14All of this leads to an uncomfortable conclusion.
01:17It may finally be time to accept the prospect of a permanently nuclear armed North Korea.
01:24That's not to say that diplomacy is out of the question.
01:27It's still possible, but it's going to have to be on Kim's terms.
01:31The sensible course then may no longer be to stop persuading him to expand his arsenal.
01:37Instead, he needs to be convinced that using it would bring devastating consequences.
01:43First of all, one is to give away some water resources.
01:43Let's look at the witnesses.
01:43Let's get started.
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