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DFA predicts #MiddleEast conflict may last 4–8 weeks; situation remains uncertain

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Transcript
00:00A month or two period is the DFA's timeline for the raging war in the Middle East,
00:05which it surmised in today's Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing.
00:09But with more Gulf states joining the war against Iran,
00:12and the unceasing, unforgiving airstrikes by Israel and the United States,
00:17the beaten-up Islamic Republic may even throw in the towel earlier,
00:22as our Luisa Erisbe reports.
00:26During the hearing of the Committee on Foreign Relations,
00:30the Department of Foreign Affairs, or DFA, says it foresees the ongoing war in the Middle East,
00:35lasting between four to eight weeks.
00:37As explained by the DFA, this is due to the continuous U.S. airstrikes in Iran,
00:43and the recent statement from U.S. President Donald Trump expressing readiness for war.
00:47The projection from the reports that we receive, it will take four weeks to eight weeks.
00:54It's not like the previous Israel-Iran war, which only took 12 days.
01:02Because of this, we receive reports that Iran would like to negotiate,
01:08but it was discounted by the Iranian government.
01:13And Trump has said yesterday that he's more ready for war.
01:19Beyond this, the death of Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khomeini is reportedly having a major impact.
01:26Hence, it remains uncertain if the situation will escalate further.
01:30We all know that the Ayatollah has been martyred at the first day of the attack.
01:35And unlike the June 2025, Iran was operating under the Ayatollah, Ayatollah's guidance.
01:45But now, we don't know who's running the game in Iran.
01:50Who in particular, we do not know.
01:52So we cannot really tell how his or her mind would go.
01:57Consequently, the government's repatriation efforts are now in full swing.
02:02In fact, the evacuation of Filipinos from five heavily affected countries in the Middle East is set to begin.
02:08Exit and meeting points have already been identified for the repatriation of Filipinos
02:14in these five Middle Eastern nations, one of which is via Egypt.
02:19We have rapid response teams.
02:22Ang strategy po natin to supplement the embassies on the western flank.
02:27Meron tayong rapid response team na nasa Egypt.
02:31At meron tayo sa kabila naman sa eastern side sa Oman.
02:34So ang strategy natin, paliligiran natin yung pertinent five countries na binabanggit ko po.
02:41And along the Saudi line, meron na rin po tayo doon nakahanda.
02:45So all it takes is to execute the same.
02:47According to the DFA, more air spaces are starting to open, including Etihad Airways and an additional flight from Emirates.
02:56Etihad Airlines also going to fly and they just, I guess they were supposed to leave earlier.
03:03And Emirates is also adding a new flight, the second flight usually, that's EK334.
03:11Despite increase in conflict, either way, what we are trying to do together with the other agencies is
03:19kung ano yung mga ruta na safe para matupad yung ating evacuation sa mga Pilipino.
03:27So we are optimistic that more and more are opening up.
03:30Meanwhile, 12 Filipinos from Iran are scheduled to be moved to Turkey with the assistance of the embassy.
03:37We plan over the weekend to move 12 Filipinos from Iran and evacuate them through the border to Turkey.
03:46Over the weekend, they will be assisted by our embassy in Iran and on the other side, our embassy in
03:52Ankara and Istanbul.
03:55However, Sen. Erwin Tulfo has reportedly received complaints regarding certain requirements being asked of Filipinos
04:03before they can cross borders, such as visa issues and inquiries regarding pending cases or travel ban.
04:10But according to the DMW, they will ensure this is merely procedural
04:15and guaranteed that Filipinos wishing to return to the Philippines will be able to leave the host country.
04:27The first step is to determine who is immediately ready. Repatriation ready po ang ibig sabihin diyan.
04:38So minsan, may case pending yung tao. So that will be, that will take some time to resolve.
04:49Minsan, walang passport or expired passport. So that too will take a bit of time as compared to others.
04:56But dinidistinguish lang po yung kung sino ba yung immediately pwede na.
05:02The DMW and OWA are planning to request additional funds for repatriation
05:07as they estimate a funding gap of 3.67 billion pesos should the conflict be prolonged.
05:14Umaabot around 135 to 140,000 Mr. Chair.
05:21Pero dahil po sa krisis na ito, ina-expect po natin na umaakyat itong presyo na ito.
05:27So kung ipipeg po ito natin sa 150,000 po ang magiging gastos per repatriation,
05:35yung pong current na pera po natin for ERF ay pwede lang po sumalo ng around 15,000.
05:4415,000. Or even less po, no?
05:48So sabihin po natin at 1% ang mag-request. That would be around 24,000 Mr. Chair.
05:56Ang aming pong funding gap ay nasa 2.2 billion na po.
06:02So because the total estimated cost will be around 3.67 billion at 150,000 po.
06:10Meanwhile, the hearing also addressed the possible spike in oil prices.
06:15According to the Department of Energy or DOE, if a one-time price hike is implemented next week,
06:21oil prices could reach 90 pesos per liter.
06:24However, if increase is staggered, it might not reach 80 pesos.
06:28Thus, Senator Irwin Tulfo is urging oil companies to implement the price hikes gradually.
06:58The committee is expected to hold a follow-up hearing to discuss proposals.
07:03regarding the suspension of excise tax or the reduction of value-added tax on fuel.
07:09Luisa Erispe from the National TV Network for a New and Better Philippines.
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