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00:00And right now we are two minutes away from the end of the trading day.
00:03Romain Bostic here with Bailey Lipschultz.
00:05Katie Greifeld has the day off.
00:07We're taking you through to the closing bell with the Global Simulcast.
00:10Carol Massa and Tim Senevic join us now.
00:12Welcome to our audiences across all of our Bloomberg platforms, television, radio and YouTube.
00:17We started off this week, Carol Massa, with a lot of investors sort of brushing off some of the broader
00:22concerns about what was going on over in Iran.
00:24But here on this Friday, apparently the bad news, just a little bit too bad to ignore.
00:29Yeah, I mean, we're looking, you know, going into the weekend.
00:32You know, it's not like we saw investors coming in and buying the dip on this Friday.
00:36And we're looking at what, maybe 2% lower on the S&P for the week overall, about 1%
00:41or a little bit more than 1% down on the NASDAQ 100 for the week overall.
00:45A lot of worries.
00:45And we keep having guests on, I think, concerned that certainly the higher energy prices are going to stick around
00:51and that this trying to wrap up this war is going to take longer than shorter.
00:57Yeah, you know, I just I can't believe that that here's where we are with with oil, Bailey, moving so
01:03much higher in such a short period of time with WTI, another 12% higher today.
01:09I couldn't believe this reaching its highest going back to the fall of 2023.
01:14So we're seeing $90 a barrel for WTI and 92 a barrel for Brent crude right now.
01:20And certainly the knock-on effect, what that means for the U.S. consumer, as you mentioned, a 35%
01:25jump in one week for crude.
01:27What does that mean for people when they go to the pump?
01:29And what does that ultimately mean is the knock-on effects happen with the actual goods that people are purchasing?
01:33It's already starting to show up at the pump.
01:35And, of course, it's not just oil and gasoline.
01:38You're also seeing natural gas prices, particularly over there in Europe now, up the most on a weekly basis since
01:432022.
01:44Aluminum prices having their biggest weekly increase since January of 2023.
01:49All of these things, of course, feed into the economy.
01:52Don't forget, we're going to get a CPI report here in the U.S. next week, a CPI report that
01:56is not going to actually reflect what happened over this past week.
01:59As we walk you through the closing bells here, the Dow down about 450 points on the day, a loss
02:05on the day of about nine-tenths of 1%.
02:07It's lower on the week by about three.
02:09The S&P 500 down 1.3% on the day and about 2% on the week.
02:14The NASDAQ Composite and the NASDAQ 100, each losing about 1.5%.
02:18And the Russell 2000 giving back 2% on the day and about 4% on a weekly basis.
02:24All right, guys, let's go to the S&P 500.
02:26No surprise to see most names in that average lower today.
02:29We've got barely 357 to the downside, 145 actually moving up on this Friday, one unchanged.
02:36Yeah, looking at the sectors, a lot of rent.
02:39Consumer staples and energy outperforming, probably unsurprising to most people watching the program.
02:43But certainly a lot of weakness, consumer discretionary, materials, tech, financials all rounding out the worst performers.
02:49Definitely a market where investors want to dial back some of their equity exposure going into the weekend.
02:55All right, guys, let's go do some individual gainers.
02:57If we may, Marvell, that is your number one gainer in the NASDAQ 100, a gain of about 18%
03:04for the Friday trade.
03:05Chipmaker saying its year-over-year revenue growth rate will accelerate each quarter throughout fiscal 2027.
03:12So definitely seen as a bullish sign, but also a bullish target that shows soaring demand from data center-related
03:18applications.
03:19So some enthusiasm on that and what has been some nervousness, certainly, with the AI spend trade.
03:24Hey, let's go on over to Costco.
03:27This was a top performer a little bit earlier in the NASDAQ 100, but still finishing the day with a
03:32gain of about 1.6%.
03:33Quarterly profit rose more than expected.
03:36Membership fees, something that was being watched closely, totaling $1.36 billion during the quarter, beating expectations.
03:42And the company says its gain market share as its bulk sizes and unique selection of goods draw in shoppers
03:49looking for value.
03:49I also heard something about selling cakes or something that apparently that is something of interest.
03:54So anyway.
03:55Cakes?
03:56People love their Costco cakes.
03:57I guess it's a strategy going forward.
03:59I don't know.
04:00I mean, who doesn't love a cake?
04:01Let's go on over to Boeing.
04:03Up about 4%.
04:04Number two gainer.
04:05I know.
04:05No segue there.
04:07Number two gainer in the S&P 500.
04:09Boeing closing in on a 500.
04:11Cake delivery, Carol.
04:12That's the segue.
04:13Cake delivery.
04:15On a plane.
04:16On a Boeing.
04:16Wow.
04:18No moss grown over there.
04:19Well done.
04:20I'm here for you.
04:20Well done.
04:21He's always here for me.
04:22Boeing closing in on a 500 aircraft order for 737 Max Jets to be unveiled when President Trump travels to
04:30Beijing for his first state visit to China since 2017.
04:33Two sides are said to be in talks for a wide body sale that includes about 100 Boeing 787 Dreamliners
04:39and 777 X jets, which would likely be announced at a later date if this materializes.
04:45Keep in mind, this is not a confirmation.
04:47It would cap years of negotiations between Boeing and China's airlines and end a lengthy order drought from the world's
04:55second biggest aviation market.
04:56This is big news if this ultimately happens.
04:59It's a huge order.
05:00And it's a huge market for Boeing.
05:02And as we know, China is also working on developing its own jet market.
05:06Yeah, the Comac.
05:07Yeah.
05:07Okay.
05:08This guy loves planes.
05:08To compete with the 737.
05:10Let's talk about some alternative asset managers, including BlackRock, that took a hit today, down 7.7 percent.
05:17This after a series of negative private credit events stirred fresh concerns over the health of the industry.
05:22For BlackRock specifically, it was about the company, the asset manager, curbing withdrawals from its $26 billion HPS corporate lending
05:30fund after client requests for redemption spiked at cap repurchases at 5 percent.
05:34It just adds to the worries that have been plaguing the private credit industry, and we saw other alternative asset
05:40managers fall today as well.
05:42Taking a look at airlines, because they have been under serious pressure in recent days over the war in Iran.
05:49We saw travel stocks take a hit.
05:52Online travel agencies are sliding, too.
05:54Oil pricing prices higher.
05:58That's a bad thing for all of these companies.
06:00Also, add on that jobs report that we got earlier today, and that could mean a consumer that is less
06:05willing to spend on stuff like this.
06:07The airlines industry, and actually airline stocks, down a little more than 20 percent from the highs just about a
06:14month ago.
06:14This is the S&P 500, S&P 1500 Airlines Index.
06:17That's down 22 percent from February 6th.
06:21So that's officially in a bear market.
06:24We also did get a note from an analyst over at Deutsche Bank that said that the price of jet
06:30fuel and oil, the spread between those, during the war poses an existential threat to U.S. airlines.
06:37So keep an eye on airlines as we do enter a bear market for that industry.
06:43And finally, shares of Gap taking a hit today.
06:46Falling more than 14 percent, this after the company reported fourth quarter sales and profit that came in slightly below
06:52expectations.
06:53Old Navy and Athleta missed.
06:55Comp sales estimates, Gap and Banana Republic did beat.
06:58The company, though, forecasting a better profit than expected for the current year.
07:01And sales within estimates.
07:03Yeah.
07:03And just an honorable mention, too.
07:04I just want to just point out the chip stocks here.
07:06We did see the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index close down about 4 percent.
07:09And, of course, a big drag lower here because of a lot of those issues with apparently whether that A
07:14.I. spend is continuing a great scoop earlier today that Oracle and OpenAI apparently dialing back their plans for that
07:20Stargate, that big Stargate data center down there in Texas.
07:23Meanwhile, we take a look at the yield space.
07:25And it was quite an interesting week.
07:27In fact, the biggest weekly sell-off that we've seen in benchmark Treasury yields since at least last April amid
07:33all of the Liberation Day eruptions.
07:36Those are the numbers on a daily basis.
07:38And the reason why they're basically flat is because there was really the push-pull between the concerns about what's
07:43going on in the Middle East and concerns about, of course, what's going on with that job support.
07:47Of course, a job support that would actually suggest the potential for a cut in rates.
07:51But, of course, the inflationary pressures and what's going on in Iran actually may be potentially making the case to
07:56actually hike rates.
07:58Overall, we're higher on a weekly basis on your two-year by about 18 points, on your 10-year by
08:02about 20 points from where we were just last Friday.
08:05Yeah.
08:05I think we're at this interesting moment in time.
08:07And I think everybody says – I was reading a Bloomberg column.
08:10You know, we have to get an idea of how long this war is going to last because that's going
08:14to certainly determine the impact.
08:17I mean, we're looking at what?
08:18WTI crewed up almost 40 percent this week alone.
08:21So, you know, you think about the jobs report this morning that was weaker than forecast.
08:25You've got inflationary pressures that are still out there.
08:28You know, dare we say stagflation.
08:30And you just think about the predicament this presents not only for the U.S. economy but the global economy
08:34and for central bankers around the world.
08:36You know, we spoke to Ellen Wald of Transversal earlier.
08:38She wrote the book on Saudi Arabia and Aramco-Bailey.
08:42And she said if this crisis, at least from an oil perspective, from an energy perspective, doesn't get solved next
08:48week, we're already on the cusp of a crisis and we could see a full-blown crisis.
08:52She said we could see $120 a barrel oil in a very short period of time if this doesn't get
08:57figured out.
08:58And I have to imagine the knock-on effect.
09:00Like, we've been talking, what does that ultimately mean for inflation?
09:03What does that mean for consumers?
09:04And certainly when you see a VIX that's getting back towards 30 and you see investors selling down companies exposed
09:11to the AI bubble, what does that mean?
09:13But also on that energy front, too, I mean, we talk about that $90 a barrel.
09:1791, Carol Master, we were at 81 yesterday.
09:21I know.
09:21And we were, like, what, at, like, 60 just a little while ago.
09:24But it's already fed through.
09:25I mean, if you look at on your Bloomberg terminal, AAA gas prices on a weekly basis, they're up by
09:30about 10 to 11 percent here.
09:32That's the price that you see at the pump, the average price we should point out.
09:35But it's actually now up six straight sessions.
09:37It had already been rising prior to that.
09:39In fact, it had actually been up for about four straight weeks prior to this week here.
09:43And that starts to become the real impact, you know, the potential economic drag that I think a lot of
09:48us were hoping we would avoid.
09:50That's why you had folks like Mohamed El-Erian talking about stagflationary winds blowing.
09:54And I don't know if you saw all the Fed speakers that Mike McKee had on today.
09:57I mean, look, it's front and center.
09:59And when's that meeting?
10:00That's, like, in a week and a half where they've got to meet and start talking about this stuff?
10:02Yeah, exactly, right?
10:04And so what do they do?
10:05So, you know, with inflationary pressures still above the Fed's target, it continues to be that way.
10:10You've got to kind of assume that the Fed is going to be very careful and certainly not do anything.
10:15Certainly not a cut.
10:16No.
10:16But certainly, you know, have to be on their inflation watch, right?
10:19I'm calling it, yeah.
10:20Yeah.
10:20What does Calci say?
10:21Are they going to pay out if I win?
10:23That's a good question.
10:24Are you on Calci?
10:26Too soon?
10:26Are you on Calci?
10:27No, that'd be illegal.
10:28Okay.
10:29Just checking.
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