00:00Our top story today, less than 24 hours remain before President Trump's latest deadline on Iran
00:05expires. Oil and Asian stocks are trading in narrow ranges as the president escalates threats
00:12to destroy key Iranian infrastructure if his terms are not met. Tehran, for its part, has rejected a
00:19U.S. ceasefire proposal sent via Pakistan while demanding a permanent end to the war. For more
00:26on this, let's bring in Horizons Middle East and Africa anchor Jemana Vasechi in Dubai. Also with us,
00:31Stephen Stepchinsky, who leads our Asia Energy Coverage. Jemana, let's start with you. Any chance
00:36for a breakthrough in talks before the deadline lapses? Well, I'll tell you, there perhaps is hope
00:44from the region that there may be a truce or a ceasefire agreed in the next 24 hours. Of course,
00:49the clock is ticking and that deadline translates to roughly 4 or 5 in the morning over here regionally
00:54in about 20 hours time. So, Hazlinda, at this point, there seems to be slim hope of a diplomatic
01:01resolution. And the reason that I say that is the two sides still appear to be very far apart. What
01:06is clear is there have been several mediator attempts over the course of the weekend that has been led by
01:12the likes of Pakistan, by Egypt, by Turkey. We know that messages have been passed from one side to the
01:18other. The U.S. and, of course, President Trump being very vocal over the course of the weekend with that
01:23sweary post on Sunday, reiterating his threats to Tehran and saying that they need to come to the
01:30negotiating table, agree to a deal, or else they would not hold back on destroying power plants and
01:36complete, quote-unquote, obliteration. So, very strong threats coming through. Now, in return, Iran,
01:42the Iranian side, some key officials also have been quite active on social media, posting taunts and the
01:47like. But essentially, New York Times are reporting overnight that they have also released their
01:52counter-10 points proposal that include not just a ceasefire, but a permanent end to the war,
01:59assurances that it won't happen again, assurances that Israel will stop its strikes on Lebanon,
02:04going after Hezbollah there. And then another term, which is that they want to continue to maintain
02:10this control, the effective control over the Strait of Hormuz. Even though they would open it up,
02:15they would only allow for vessels to pass with a fee. And a fee that's being reported by New York
02:20Times is up to $2 million a vessel. So, still, I mean, they're very far apart on the terms. And
02:26these are terms that both the U.S. and Israel would be unlikely to subscribe to. And at the same
02:32time,
02:32we know that that deadline is ticking. So, the question is, does the U.S. follow through on those
02:37threats, or do we get the deadline pushed back once again?
02:42And Stephen, what's top of mind for oil traders at the moment? For the longest time,
02:46it's been about duration. Is it still about duration of this war?
02:50I mean, I think right now, the immediate focus is precisely what we were talking about just a
02:55moment ago, which is what is going to be the outcome in 24 hours. If this is going to be
03:00Trump
03:00kicking the can down the road and giving more time to Iran, then oil prices could maybe fall from
03:05where we are at around $110 plus to the lower $100 level into the 90s, according to some analysts,
03:12if it actually accelerates and turns into a situation where Trump starts attacks and hitting
03:19some of these sites in Iran, which could be power plants, bridges, is what he's threatened.
03:24If he does follow through with that, then we start to see oil prices rise much more.
03:28So, that's a very big gap of where things could go. Boy, oh boy, I'm happy I'm not an oil
03:33trader at the moment because there are just a plethora of outcomes that could happen here,
03:38and it's very unclear, especially when you look at what the Trump, what the, what the president
03:42says. He, he is giving a lot of different signals between talks are going well to, again,
03:47having a pretty provocative posts on social media, also on the same time, on the same end
03:53from, from Iran as well. So, it will be a difficult thing to parse for traders. I think another
03:59key thing will be, how does the Strait of Hormuz play into this? Because at the moment,
04:04there are some ships going through. Traffic over the weekend increased the highest level
04:08to, to where we were since the war began. Still very small, and the flows are, are tiny compared
04:15to where we were before the war began. But exactly how much Iran controls of the strait will be key
04:20to how the oil market trades.
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