00:00That's the big question we've been raising today.
00:02What really is Donald Trump's endgame, if there is any anymore?
00:05Regime change?
00:06Or is one order going to be replaced by another
00:10within the Islamic Republic of Iran?
00:13Has Trump really thought this through?
00:16Will Iran descend into chaos?
00:18Gulf safe havens exposed to war?
00:20And what should India's role really be at all?
00:23Ambassador Nafted Sarna is former Indian ambassador to the US and to Israel.
00:29Daniel Frey, former diplomat, is also joining us.
00:33I appreciate both of you joining us.
00:35I want to come to you and update Sarna first
00:37because you've been seeing what's happening in the last 72 hours.
00:42You've served in Israel.
00:43You've served in the US.
00:45Is this an operation, as many now believe,
00:47directed and driven by the Israelis
00:51with America playing a supporting role
00:53and now struggling to actually come to terms
00:56with the Iranian retaliation?
01:00Thank you, Rashid.
01:01I think that sort of sums it up,
01:04except I don't think the US is playing a supporting role.
01:07The US is doing a lot of major heavy lifting
01:10and is also suffering in terms of US assets right across West Asia.
01:15But yes, it is a war which has been undertaken by the US
01:23with the very active instigation of Prime Minister Netanyahu.
01:31And I don't think there's been any confusion on the part of Israel
01:37as to its objectives.
01:39They've been wanting to do this for a long time.
01:41And they have told Donald Trump that given the weakness of the Iranian regime,
01:48given the economic problems,
01:50given the weakening of the capacity in the June war,
01:55and given the protests recently,
01:57this is probably a great opportunity to remove the regime.
02:01And President Trump's, again, there was no confusion.
02:05He made it very clear he wants a regime change.
02:09Now he may have realized that it was always a complex possibility.
02:17Iran has prepared for this moment.
02:20And whether anybody likes a regime or not is a separate matter.
02:25The fact is that this is not a regime.
02:28This is a regime which will fight to the end.
02:31And I think that is what we are seeing happening today.
02:35Daniel Fry, do you believe, therefore,
02:37the US has underestimated Iran's capacity to retaliate?
02:42Do you believe, perhaps, Donald Trump believing that
02:48Tehran could be like Caracas and has got it badly wrong?
02:52Or is that premature to say,
02:53do you believe that the sheer military might of the US and Israel
02:57will eventually see regime change?
03:02Or is regime change at all on the table anymore?
03:09You're on mute.
03:10You're on mute, Mr. Freight.
03:11Sorry, you're on mute.
03:13Please excuse me.
03:15No longer on mute.
03:19It is difficult to overthrow a regime using air power alone.
03:26That seems pretty clear from wars over the last 85 years.
03:36It is also clear.
03:38Well, it seems clear that the Iranian regime is going to fight hard
03:47and create as much destruction as possible in the region.
03:51It has done so in a way that has alienated the Gulf states
03:57and even caused the French, British, and Germans
04:02to issue a statement offering cooperation with the US
04:07in defending against Iranian attacks.
04:12This is a remarkable statement.
04:16Whether or not Trump succeeds in regime change, I can't say.
04:21But I have noticed, I think you've noticed also,
04:25that President Trump has expressed US objectives in a variety of ways.
04:31Regime change is one, negotiations is another,
04:35and some kind of practical arrangement with a new leadership without regime change
04:43is yet a third.
04:44That would be something along the Venezuelan model.
04:48Trump has not defined his war aims clearly,
04:52partly because he doesn't know how successful the war will be,
04:56how much damage, how many casualties the US will suffer,
05:01and whether or not he can succeed in his maximum objectives.
05:05So he's holding out a variety of objectives,
05:08and he loves to keep his options open,
05:12as they think he's doing in this case.
05:16Natneth Sarna, given what we're hearing from several of our guests in the United States,
05:20that Trump hasn't spelt out the clear objectives,
05:23what should India be doing?
05:25We've just heard Prime Minister Modi spoken to the King of Jordan,
05:29he spoke yesterday to the UAE leadership,
05:32expressed his support and solidarity.
05:35India has stayed silent on Ali Khamenei's death.
05:38There's no reports of India reaching out in that sense,
05:41although there was a conversation between our Foreign Minister Jai Shankar
05:45and his Iranian counterpart,
05:47but nothing in the public domain in that sense,
05:50in terms of any kind of sympathy or solidarity.
05:52Have we clearly picked a side?
05:54And our side at the moment is US-Israel.
05:57The Prime Minister was in Israel only last week.
06:00Does it give us less leverage in any way
06:03to even mention de-escalation?
06:06Will we be taken seriously by the Iranians in particular anymore?
06:11I think, Rajdeep, things are moving at so fast a pace
06:16that, yes, I think India should not be worried or be hesitant
06:21about where we were or who our friends are
06:24or who are not so friendly to us.
06:25This is the moment to get active, to talk to every partner.
06:31After all, our entire approach to West Asia
06:34has been to build up bilateral relations
06:37rather than going for an overall regional approach.
06:41So we have equities with each of them,
06:43and we must exercise them now,
06:46because this is in our interest.
06:48We have about 9 million people spread across the region.
06:51Our energy intake comes from that area to a very large extent.
06:57And whatever happens there,
06:59whatever instability comes there,
07:02is going to be impacting upon us.
07:04So I think this is the time for India
07:07to step up the game of talking to as many people
07:10to try and play as much role as we can
07:14and ask for de-escalation without hesitation.
07:17If we are close to Israel,
07:19then we should put pressure on Israel.
07:20If we are close to any of the Gulf countries,
07:23which we are,
07:25then I think we need to work with them,
07:27because that's in the interest of our people.
07:29A lot of our people are going to get in harm's way
07:33if this continues.
07:35So I think these conversations that have now begun
07:38with the King of Jordan and others,
07:40I think these are steps in the right direction
07:42and should continue.
07:44What happens to any reach out at all to Iran?
07:47Are you saying that at the moment,
07:49given the turbulence and the fluctuating situation,
07:52India does not reach out in any manner to Iran
07:56and waits to see what happens?
07:58Because India seems to be playing.
07:59The fact that we went to Israel only last week,
08:03just while,
08:04just 48 hours before the attacks took place,
08:06clearly seems to suggest
08:08that we are in a multi-aligned world,
08:10aligned at the moment with Israeli interests.
08:13You don't agree?
08:14Why have we chosen not to say a word on Ali Khamenei?
08:17Why did we choose not to say even one word
08:20on the death of the Iranian Supreme Leader?
08:22I think that is something which is being debated about
08:25in our domestic politics extensively.
08:28And I think there are several aspects to it.
08:30Yes, at one stage,
08:32he is a sitting head of state.
08:34And for any other country to come in and take out,
08:37no matter what kind of a person he is,
08:39is, I think, a transition of international law
08:43into an area of complete, complete confusion.
08:47On the other hand,
08:48I think if you analyze statements
08:50of a lot of other countries,
08:52India has also gone on what is being called
08:54the national interest paradigm.
08:55A lot of the Europeans,
08:58a lot of the Gulf countries
08:59have not condemned the killing of Ali Khamenei.
09:04So we have been silent on that aspect.
09:06I'm not saying this is right or wrong.
09:08I'm just trying to explain the policy behind it.
09:11At the same time,
09:12I think we have reached out to Iran.
09:14I think we have spoken
09:15to the Iranian foreign minister.
09:17And we are probably playing with the information
09:21that even within Iran,
09:23the society is today polarized.
09:26There are people who are mourning
09:30the death of their leader.
09:31There are people who are not so unhappy
09:35with the death of the leader.
09:36And that is within Iran.
09:38But I think we are a state outside.
09:40And at some stage,
09:41we will have to take a line
09:43on what our stand is going to be
09:46in terms of international law.
09:48The fact remains today
09:50that no country is talking of international law.
09:54So India will have to choose its moment
09:56as to when do we start taking that line.
10:02You know, I'll push you once more,
10:07Mr. Sarna.
10:09Do we have a role to play
10:10given that there are vast number of Indians
10:13in the Gulf, presumably?
10:15Do we really have that kind of leverage,
10:18you believe?
10:18Or given the volatile situation,
10:20it's best to stay out at the moment?
10:23No, I don't think we have very great leverage
10:26in terms of the fact that,
10:28you know, we can't go and tell somebody
10:30that, no, you stop shooting.
10:31We certainly don't have that kind of leverage.
10:34What we have is our own interest.
10:36And for our own interest,
10:38given the kind of people
10:39that who are, you know,
10:41who are at risk there,
10:42we can use our friendships,
10:45we can choose our partnerships
10:46and keep speaking to people.
10:48But I agree with you entirely.
10:49This is a game which has gone beyond
10:53simply picking up the phone
10:54and talking to people.
10:56This is a major war.
10:58It's a major conflagration
10:59in the Middle East.
11:00And it is only up to the United States
11:03and to Israel
11:05to make it come to a halt.
11:09And they will do it at the time
11:10of their choosing
11:11or when Iran has pushed them
11:13into a position
11:15in which they begin to feel the price.
11:18And this is what the Iranian regime,
11:20which is going to fight to the end,
11:22is trying to do
11:23by embroiling as many countries as possible.
11:27Donald Trump is not a man
11:28who would have said,
11:29I want four weeks of war.
11:31He's losing his MAGA base even.
11:34So I think the real players there
11:36are U.S.,
11:37the Iranian regime
11:39and Israel.
11:40And ultimately,
11:41I think we
11:42and many other countries,
11:45including Europe,
11:46have a very limited leverage
11:47on those decisions.
11:49Okay.
11:50Nafthet Sarna,
11:51Daniel Fried,
11:52for joining me.
11:52I appreciate both of you
11:54joining me on the show tonight.
11:56Thank you very much.
11:57There's lots to talk about.
11:59The war in West Asia
12:00is becoming more reckless
12:02and dangerous by the day.
12:05The Trump-Netanyahu duo
12:07have abandoned diplomacy,
12:10destabilized
12:11an already volatile region,
12:13risked a broader conflagration,
12:15causing global economic disruption.
12:18Unilateral strikes
12:19violate international norms.
12:22Yes, Iran's regime's track record,
12:24especially on human and gender rights,
12:26is deeply troubling.
12:28And as is its support
12:29for armed groups
12:30like Hamas and Hezbollah.
12:32But while regime change
12:33may be seductive in theory,
12:35it only throws up more chaos
12:37and is extremely dangerous
12:40as a precedent
12:41in international law.
12:43Iran is not Venezuela,
12:45as the U.S. has realized
12:47in the last 48 hours.
12:49The killing of Ali Khamenei
12:50may be seen by the U.S. president
12:52as a prize trophy.
12:54But does Trump really have a plan
12:56for what follows in his wake?
12:59Or is he being strung along
13:00by Netanyahu
13:02into a battle
13:03few Americans
13:04really want to engage
13:05in as every poll shows?
13:08An embattled Iran, too,
13:11is now attempting
13:12to spread the conflict
13:13across West Asia
13:15in an attempt
13:16to widen
13:17the theater of war
13:19and put increasing pressure
13:21on the United States.
13:23Truth is,
13:24this is not a time
13:26for muscle flexing,
13:27but for quiet diplomacy
13:29to bring the warring sides
13:31back to the negotiating table
13:33before it is too late.
13:34Ordinary citizens
13:36across West Asia
13:38are paying a heavy price
13:39for the geopolitical hubris
13:42of a few individuals.
13:45The question is,
13:46is there anyone
13:47with the moral authority left
13:49to call out the warmongers?
13:51Don't forget
13:52the same Donald Trump
13:54when campaigning
13:55for president in 2024
13:57promised that he would
13:58never take America
13:59to war again.
14:01Who will now call out
14:02the leader of the United States
14:04who simply won't follow
14:06a rules-based world order?
14:10Think about it.
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