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00:00I think obviously the operation was more than just a decapitation operation. It included taking down their air defenses, their
00:08ballistic missile launching capabilities, further degradation of their nuclear program.
00:13And the coup de grace of this, I guess, is the decapitation part of it. And yes, look, I think
00:19that's always an option. If you could take out the senior leadership of a foreign country, that can really knock
00:25out their ability to command, to communicate, to inspire their forces.
00:29And so I think it was a risk worth taking. The fact that not only taken out was Khamenei, but
00:35also the defense minister, the head of the IRGC, and Israel saying several dozen other senior commanders really could leave
00:44the state of Iran, again, very destabilized, no clear chain of command and chaotic actions.
00:52And we may be seeing some of that right now, that they don't yet know how to respond, which is
00:55why they are lashing out at several Arab countries through the use of drones, through the use of ballistic missiles.
01:01Secretary Esper, let me ask you for your perspective on the timeline for what happens next here.
01:06And I imagine when you were in the Pentagon, there were scenario planning meetings in which you would have thought
01:11through what might happen if this were to come to pass, if the Supreme Leader were to die or be
01:15killed, and the nation were to be thrust in this kind of uncertainty.
01:18How do you see all of this playing out? How long do you think it's likely to take?
01:22And as you look to other capitals, other places in the Middle East being brought into this war, what does
01:27it tell you about the timeline?
01:30Well, I think, first of all, at the operational level, we know that President Trump has said this could go
01:34on for several days.
01:35They've talked about a period of bombing and strikes with a pause to do BDA, which is battle damage assessment.
01:41That's where you look at what happened. And did you hit the targets?
01:44Did you destroy them or do you need to go back and double tap them?
01:47So I think that continues for a few days.
01:49But we will likely reach a point here fairly soon where the Iranians will have had so many ballistic missile
01:54launchers destroyed, missiles rendered incapacitated, that Israel and the United States will have free, unverted ability to fly over Iran
02:04and strike any targets as they want.
02:06And I think that will come sooner rather than later.
02:08It appears some of that's happening now because the air defenses just don't seem to be capable.
02:12So I think we'll reach out in a period of days, which will render Iran relatively defenseless.
02:18Then the question will be, what else does Iran try and do, for example, use, activate their terror network around
02:23the world to include here in the United States?
02:25I think the bigger question, though, is politically, is who is going to assume charge in the coming days?
02:30We know that Iran is appointed a and it's constitutional, a three person, three persons to run the country in
02:37the interim.
02:37It's the head of the judiciary, the president and a member of the Guardian Council.
02:42But the important thing is who will succeed ultimately?
02:46Khamenei will be a senior cleric that will preserve the theocracy will be a senior military commander from the IRGC
02:52that will try and establish the military as the foremost power.
02:55Or will be somewhere a civilian who's not a cleric who is in the Iranian system more pragmatic?
03:01I think we need to see all that play out in the coming days.
03:04Right now, it seems like the clerics have the have the edge because, you know, the constitutional process is being
03:11followed.
03:11Then I think economically, we're all watching to see what they try and do with the Strait of Hormuz.
03:17Will they try and close it as a way to rattle oil markets, threaten their Arab neighbors and whatnot?
03:23And then lastly, diplomatically, it's interesting to see so many people sitting on the sidelines are not doing much.
03:29I mean, obviously, Russia and China have have protested American actions.
03:33Some Europeans have been supportive.
03:35Others have remained quiet.
03:36But so when I look at these next few days, I look at those four pillars of of of of
03:44how this may go.
03:45So, Secretary, I'm wondering what you know about this kind of caretaker appointee that they've named this morning, Ali Reza
03:52Arafi.
03:53It's not a name I'm familiar with.
03:55Do we know anything about his position?
03:57You mentioned possible successors.
03:59The Ayatollah had a son that is not traditionally how that is done in Shia Islamic tradition, but it's unprecedented
04:05times.
04:06Could that be a possibility as well?
04:08And is there I mean, you mentioned they're following the Constitution.
04:12Is that really a succession plan that you think is durable, given all the other factors?
04:16Or are you afraid that we could end up with a power vacuum in Tehran?
04:20Yeah, very good question.
04:22So let's a little bit of history first.
04:23Of course, we know that Khamenei had identified a successor a couple of years ago, and it was President Raisi
04:30who was killed in early 2024 in a helicopter crash.
04:34Obviously, unexpectedly.
04:36And he never publicly named a successor after that, although he supposedly privately listed three people that would be considered
04:43successors.
04:44People had often spoken within the country about his son.
04:47But Khamenei did not want any type of hereditary leadership to resume.
04:52It would sound too much like the previous monarchy to the Iranian people.
04:54And, of course, there's the grandson of the original, the first Ayatollah Khamenei, who is in the running as well.
05:02But we really don't know who these players are.
05:04And, again, it would depend on who is exercising more power.
05:07The clerics have charge under the constitutional system.
05:10This will eventually go to the 88-member Assembly of Experts, all of whom are clerics, and all of whom
05:16must follow or should follow the Constitution,
05:18which says that it must be a cleric who succeeds Khamenei.
05:23But, again, I think it depends on how these different power centers play out and interact over the coming days.
05:28We've also heard the name of former President Rouhani, who is the leader who negotiated the JCPOA with the Obama
05:35administration.
05:35That was very surprising to me.
05:37David, did you remember?
05:38Yeah, I think I put him more in that third category of not necessarily strongly associated with the IRGC or
05:45the clerics,
05:45but somebody who is a politician who is maybe more pragmatic.
05:50Maybe he's a cleric but not a senior cleric.
05:52So, again, that's one of the nodes that we've got to watch in terms of the power struggle internally.
05:56We talk about Iranians following their Constitution.
05:59I think there's a roiling debate here in the U.S. about did the president follow the Constitution
06:04or follow his obligations to tell Congress what he was doing and did go to Congress for permission before doing
06:08this.
06:09And I'm curious how you think about that.
06:11We've seen that the Gang of Eight was briefed, I believe, by the Secretary of State,
06:15not the Secretary of Defense, on the night of the State of the Union.
06:17There were reports now there's going to be a wider briefing for lawmakers today on Capitol Hill.
06:21Did the president make a mistake?
06:23Did the administration make a mistake by not going to Congress in advance of these significant strikes?
06:27No, I don't think so in this case.
06:29I mean, look, we all know the Iranian profile case very well.
06:33You know, I've been since going being in D.C. in the mid 90s, I've been following the Iranians
06:38and all the ups and downs and the pursuit of nuclear enrichment and and their proxy terror network throughout the
06:44region.
06:45Lawmakers on Capitol Hill understand this regime very well.
06:48No surprises here.
06:49We do know that Marco Rubio was up testifying before Congress last week or the week before.
06:54Most likely he was asked about the regime.
06:56He did go to the Gang of Eight, which was a smart thing to do during my time when we
07:01killed Soleimani.
07:02We did the same thing. I did the same thing, speaking to the Gang of Eight, but also the Armed
07:07Services Committee.
07:08So they're going through the right motions.
07:09I would want to obviously see more from the president and his cabinet coming out and speaking directly to the
07:14American people.
07:15I think that would help explain where this is going, the whys, the what's and how's and when's.
07:22And then obviously there will be congressional hearings.
07:24I went through the same thing after the Soleimani strikes where the the cabinet can get into more detailed,
07:31classified discussions with the Congress concerning what they saw, what they what they believe to be the emerging threats,
07:38maybe the Iranian pursuit of their nuclear program.
07:41All these things will play out over time. But I think right now they're they're in good stead.
07:46The president certainly has the the authority under Article two of the Constitution.
07:50And the question will be is, how long does this drag on?
07:52And I think as if it drags on, that's where more questions will be asked about coming to Congress,
07:57requesting authorization, implementation of the War Powers Act, which, of course, is contested by the executive.
08:04But all these things will play out. It depends on how long it lasts.
08:08Mr. Secretary, when when you were in the administration and you took action against Soleimani,
08:12there there was some controversy about whether it was an extraditional killing.
08:16And one of the arguments the administration made at the time was an imminent threat argument.
08:20That's something we're hearing now from the president.
08:22I've got some sound from his speech last night or very early yesterday morning, depending how you want to look
08:26at.
08:26I want you to listen to this.
08:28A short time ago, the United States military began major combat operations in Iran.
08:37Our objective is to defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime, a vicious group of
08:48very hard, terrible people.
08:52There is certainly, I think, a fairly easy imminent threat argument to be made about Iran's risk to U.S.
08:57installations in the region.
08:59But is there a legitimate argument that the imminent threat from Iran to the U.S. homeland was heightened in
09:05the last days or weeks?
09:08Well, look, I think this is something that the cabinet, again, is going to have to go up to Congress
09:12in the coming weeks in a classified setting and explain what they saw and answer these questions.
09:18I know during my tenure, we did see imminent threats.
09:21We knew that Soleimani was moving throughout their region and organizing his proxy forces to attack Americans, American facilities, multiple
09:30embassies.
09:31And we took the action, taking out what we saw as a uniformed military officer on an active battlefield.
09:37So that was eventually explained.
09:39And for the most members of Congress understood that the intelligence was shared.
09:44So I think we'll go through that same process.
09:46But look, I think we need to look broader than that.
09:47In my mind, this is a preventive action in the midst of a strategic opportunity.
09:53Over the last couple of years since the murder by Hamas of 1,200 Israelis in October 2023 has kicked
10:02off a series of things that has eventually resulted in the destruction of Hamas, the destruction of Hezbollah in southern
10:07Lebanon.
10:09It's the reduction in power of Shia militia groups, attacks on the Houthis, and a little bit unexpectedly, of course,
10:15the overthrow of the Assad regime in Syria.
10:18All the entire network of Iranian terror proxies has largely been dismantled.
10:23And then on top of that, with the 12-day war, we saw Iranian air defenses and missile capabilities and
10:29their nuclear programs set back as well.
10:30So here we are at a moment in time after 47 years of this terrorist state conducting these operations and
10:37causing instability and death throughout the Middle East.
10:40We find them on their knees and at the same time trying to rebuild their air defenses, trying to rebuild
10:45missile launch capabilities, trying to buy cruise missiles from China, advanced fighter jets from Russia, and restart the nuclear program.
10:53Why wouldn't we take this opportunity once and for all to take down this regime and to free the Iranian
10:58people from this oppression?
11:00To me, it's a strategic opportunity. It would have been a mistake not to take it.
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