00:00Well, to unpack that address, Dr. Andrew Smith joins us now. He's the director of the University of New Hampshire
00:06Survey Center. Dr. Smith, great to have you with us on the program today. I think what was notable in
00:13that speech was, you know, something his second term has largely lacked, which is restraint. It actually remained, you know,
00:19rather on brand with Donald Trump's messaging since taking office. Your first impressions?
00:26I thought the first part of the speech was actually kind of slow and boring and surprising for a Donald
00:31Trump speech. But he seemed to gather steam as he went along. And certainly by the time he started attacking
00:38Democrats for their positions on illegal immigration, he was back to the Donald Trump of the campaign trail. So he
00:45it wasn't a typical speech in that there wasn't the long laundry list of things to do. It was more
00:50a list of accomplishments.
00:52Now, he painted a rather rosy picture of the American economy, but opinion polls do not reflect the sentiment, does
00:59it? I mean, his is a speech likely to have struck a chord with U.S. voters struggling to to
01:05pay their bills and make ends meet, especially as, you know, he provided no new ideas on housing or health
01:10care, which were the two defining issues of his midterm campaign.
01:15I don't think that it's going to sway many people one way or the other. His supporters are locked into
01:20him. They're going to go and support whatever he supports. Republicans in Congress are still doing that same thing. We'll
01:26see what happens after the midterm elections.
01:28And Democrats aren't going to be swayed by anything that Trump says either. So I think this is not doing
01:34anything to try to build bridges between the parties or look for bipartisan solutions to some of the problems that
01:39America has.
01:40But this is more of a matter of you're standing with me or standing against me and lining up the
01:45troops for battle in November.
01:48So around, you know, half of Democrats skipped the State of the Union address. They held counter events while that
01:55was being held.
01:56We also saw, you know, some moments of clashes between Trump and the Democrats during a speech, as we saw
02:01with who just saw in that report earlier.
02:04What have the Democrats reactions been to the speech?
02:09Well, I think that they were they were muted in the room.
02:13The one sign that was held up by Representative Green was the most obvious thing.
02:21A few shouts from the audience, which seems to be kind of the thing to do now after going back
02:26to the Obama admin of one of Obama's State of the Union speeches, that that's getting to be de rigueur.
02:34But I don't think there was the kind of anger.
02:38And I think that's probably Trump was trying to goad the Democrats really into making a lot of statements, really
02:45trying to to get their goat there, so to speak.
02:48And I don't think he really succeeded.
02:51You mentioned just earlier that Trump's State of the Union speech did no favors to, you know, kind of bridge
02:58the casem between Republicans and Democrats.
03:00What does that say about, you know, the deep divisions that exist within the U.S. population, especially at that
03:06bridge between Republicans and Democrats?
03:10Well, those divisions aren't going away anytime soon.
03:13I think that's the short answer.
03:16And remember, when most people don't watch the State of the Union address, but they hear about it.
03:21They hear about it through the media sources that they choose to listen to.
03:24And I bet today we're going to hear very, very different representations of what Trump said by more left leaning
03:32news sources and by more conservative news sources.
03:35So I think that what happens after the speech is more important.
03:41And that will just go on to reinforce these differences between the two parties.
03:45The antagonism there is real.
03:48There's really not a lot of common ground, even on issues where there ought to be.
03:54But this is the politics we're in today.
03:56And I think that Trump thinks this works for him.
03:58So he suffered a major fallback after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled last week that large portions of the
04:06tariffs he announced last year were illegal.
04:09But in his address, he said tariff revenues could one day replace U.S. income tax.
04:14This is Trump essentially doubling down on his defeat.
04:19Well, I think that he's still pushing tariffs.
04:22He's got some historical evidence to say that throughout the 18th and 19th century, tariffs funded most of the United
04:29States.
04:30But we live in a different economy now, obviously.
04:33And tariffs have costs as well.
04:35So he's pushing tariffs again.
04:38He likes the idea.
04:40The Congress doesn't seem willing under a Republican under Republican leadership in the Congress to push back and emphasize that
04:49it is the the Congress that has the power to set tariffs.
04:53It's in the Constitution.
04:56But, you know, until until Congress wants to do something to push back against tariffs, I think we're going to
05:00be in this situation.
05:02Trump still has a couple of other legal angles that he can use to implement tariffs.
05:08He's got a 150-day tariff going on right now.
05:13But I don't think that anytime soon we'll be able to replace the income tax.
05:18I think politically that would just be way, way, way too hard of a lift to do.
05:21Right.
05:22And he, you know, he largely stuck to domestic policies, although he did address some foreign policy issues about an
05:29hour into his speech as well.
05:30But what was notable was that he didn't clarify his policy towards Iran.
05:37I was surprised.
05:38I thought there might be something and even I thought there might be an announcement that the troops were going
05:43into Iran during the speech as a way to distract from any negative things that people might say about him
05:49during it.
05:49But the Iranian issue is the one I think that it's still way up in the air.
05:54It's something that he can't take care of quickly, like his invasion of Venezuela.
06:01If Iran was that easy to take care of, somebody would have done it over the last several decades.
06:07But I think the Iranian issue is the one to pay attention to now.
06:10It's the one that involves the most of our allies and enemies.
06:14And it's the one that I think will be central to what happens between now and November.
06:22I think it's also worth noting that, you know, there was no mention of the killing of Americans in Minneapolis
06:27at the hand of ICE agents or the Epstein files at all.
06:30On the foreign policy front, he made no mention of Ukraine or Greenland.
06:35Was this intentional, in your opinion, the fact that he alluded to these major topics ahead of the midterms in
06:41November?
06:44Not surprising at all that he didn't say anything about the Epstein files.
06:47I think he'd be more than happy if he never hears the word Epstein again.
06:52The Greenland thing, I think that that's probably going nowhere and it's not a time to do it here in
06:58the State of the Union.
07:00You know, he's stuck with the things that he thinks got him to the position that he's in now.
07:06And he's just reemphasizing those talking points.
07:08So it's not surprising that he hasn't tried to speak to what Americans or what journalists think are the important
07:15open questions out there.
07:18So just looking ahead then at the midterms, would you say that this was a speech that's likely to influence
07:25the political trajectory of Trump's second term?
07:27I mean, do you think it's made a difference with his MAGA base and even shore up support with independence?
07:34I don't think so.
07:35I mean, historically, speeches like this are short-term things.
07:39There's going to be something that comes along in the next week or two that's going to change people's focus
07:43from this speech to something else.
07:45You mentioned foreign policy issues.
07:47Boy, there's a lot of them out in the world today.
07:50So I don't think this is really going to change things.
07:53If he does one thing, it lays out what the Republican agenda is and what their strategies are going to
07:59be for the midterm election.
08:00But November is a long time away and there'll be many, many other things that happen between now and November
08:05that are going to have a greater influence on the vote.
08:08And the vote in November isn't going to be about attracting independents or Democrats to come over and vote for
08:15Trump.
08:15The big thing is, how do you motivate Republicans to get out and show up?
08:19Historically, in midterm elections, the president party loses, loses seats in the Congress, loses seats in the states because they've
08:28done their job in the presidential election year and they kind of go home in the midterm.
08:32So what Trump has to do and what Republicans have to do if they want to win is really motivate
08:38Republican voters to get out and vote in November.
08:41And that, I think, is what his aim was today, is to build that motivation.
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