00:00U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to use Tuesday's State of the Union address to champion
00:05his immigration crackdowns, slashing of the federal government, and his push to preserve
00:10widespread right-spread tariffs. The traditional address to Congress comes at a fraught moment for
00:15Trump's presidency, with his approval ratings slumping, anxieties rising over Iran, and
00:20Americans struggling with the cost of living as the November midterm election nears. But it offers
00:26Trump a chance to persuade voters to keep Republicans in power. Will, for more on this
00:32story, we can say hello to our international affairs editor, Angela Diffley. Angela, let's
00:38first take a look at Trump's domestic record, what's happened in the past year, and what
00:42might he say? Yeah, you mentioned there how he is sinking in the polls. Very important.
00:48Of course, midterms coming up, as you mentioned, this year in November. If the House is lost
00:54to the Democrats, as it seems likely, looking at polls at the moment, then there is a possibility
00:59that Trump could be impeached again. He will want to avoid that. So he will try today to
01:06persuade people of the successes of this first year. You know, we all know how gifted he is
01:11at exaggerating. He will boast of his successes. And there are some clear wins in terms of pleasing
01:19his MAGA base, at least. The border with Mexico is pretty much sealed now. There is no longer a major
01:26problem of chaotic illegal immigration, as there was for much of the Biden term there. That has been
01:33more or less fixed. Another issue, the issue of transgender rights. That will please his MAGA base.
01:40They have rolled back a lot of that. And that will certainly please his MAGA base. Beyond that,
01:47it is a lot more messy. First of all, tariffs, which we saw that has created significant problems
01:55for American businesses who now are wondering whether they will get their money back after the
01:59Supreme Court last week ruled that Trump's use of those tariffs in that way was not legal.
02:08The use of ICE, the enforcement force to enforce illegal immigration laws, was a disaster leading to
02:20the death of two what looked like entirely innocent Americans. That has not gone down well with the
02:27American public, including Republicans, and including Republicans who favoured this policy. It was simply
02:33badly executed, clumsy and cruel in too many people's eyes. Another area where he is not in a very
02:43comfortable situation is the Epstein affair. Again, he continued more so in his first term, his first
02:50campaign, the idea of drain the swamp. But that remained a theme. You know, I'm for the little guy.
02:56I'm not with all this Washington elite. A lot of voters voted for him because of that. And there will
03:02be
03:02continued fallout from the Epstein files. Epstein files, notably, of course, at the moment, any legal, any
03:09prosecutions are only happening in Europe, and notably Britain. There have been no prosecutions apart from
03:16Ghislaine Maxwell in the United States. But this thing will continue to create problems for him. And
03:22until now, he has had very little pushback from, for example, Congress. Once the primaries are out of
03:31the way and congressmen and women are less fearful of not getting an endorsement from Donald Trump, they
03:39are likely to flex a little more, be less supine, push back a little more. And we've already seen that
03:45he executed, you know, virtual U-turns on those three big things. The tariffs he has been forced to
03:51completely reconsider after the Supreme Court stood up to him on ice after what was pretty much a civilian
04:01resistance to it. He has had to reconsider and pull out the ice officers. And on Epstein,
04:07he was forced to release files, even though initially he didn't want to. So he's in a much
04:13less comfortable position than he would like to be giving this State of Union speech.
04:16Well, Trump came to power, of course, on a pledge not to engage in forever wars to put American
04:23interests first. Do people in the US like his foreign policy moves so far?
04:28Sixty percent of Americans apparently disapprove of the way he's conducting foreign policy. There will be,
04:35he will no doubt flag up what he considers to be significant wins. He can claim significant credit for
04:45getting a ceasefire in Gaza. That is something he will definitely talk about.
04:51Equally, he sees capturing Nicolas Maduro as a clear win. It could lead to oil investments for the
04:59United States. It could be a positive thing on the whole for the United States and has certainly
05:05contributed to stemming the major drug trafficking problem in all of that region. He can claim credit
05:11as well for forcing European NATO members to up their spending on NATO. After that,
05:18again, it looks very messy. Mexico, the Caribbean, you know, that's a mixed situation. He has alienated
05:25many Europeans. But again, that's not necessarily something that Americans in their day to day life
05:31would worry about. What they will be worrying about is Iran, because it does look as if this could lead
05:39to
05:40a full scale war. It's possible. Thursday, there will either be a deal or Trump will be forced to do
05:46something.
05:47Having amassed this huge armada in the area, he will have to act if the Iranians do not blink,
05:55and they do not seem to be blinking. And then he has never really made clear to the United States
06:00public
06:02what this war in Iran is about. Is it about disabling their nuclear program? You know,
06:08last June, he told them it had already been obliterated. Is it about disabling their ballistic
06:15missiles? They can't reach the United States. So again, that's something Americans might shrug their
06:20shoulders about. Or is it about toppling the Iranian regime while it's at its weakest? You know,
06:25if this ends up with body bags and American soldiers as casualties, that will not go down with his
06:33MAGA base. He pledged above all to put America first and to have no forever wars. If he's lucky
06:40and either a deal is made, then all credit to him. His idea of maximum threat will have worked. But
06:49if
06:49he's not lucky and this thing goes wrong, not just the MAGA base, but many Americans will feel
06:57that that was not what they voted for. All right, Angela Diffley, thank you very much for that analysis.
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