00:00What do you think this means for U.S.-Taiwan economic ties?
00:03Well, in theory, it shouldn't actually mean very much.
00:06The number of items that were under the Emergency Powers Act that have been ruled unconstitutional are relatively few.
00:14All the major electronics, the headline chips, these kinds of things are generally not going to be affected by this.
00:22It's more traditional industries.
00:24But really, I think what people here on the ground are going to be looking for, particularly in places like
00:30here in Taichung and in Kaohsiung,
00:32is how is it going to impact a lot of the industries that employ a lot of people here in
00:38the industrial parks and the trade export zones and these kinds of things.
00:44The government, the president, the DPP, they all spent a lot of effort to get this trade deal with the
00:48United States done, and now it looks like it might be changing.
00:50What do you think this could mean for the domestic political situation here in Taiwan?
00:53I just saw a headline now that some of the KMT are already calling for the deal to be renegotiated.
00:59However, there are strong and influential forces within the KMT.
01:04For example, Taichung Mayor Lucio Yen, who's considered a potential frontrunner to represent the party in the presidential election in
01:112028,
01:12has come out for the agreement.
01:14So this, I think there's going to be different elements within the KMT and the TPP.
01:20To renegotiate it could take as much as months, and that would leave a long period of time where a
01:29certain segment of Taiwan exporters could be seriously impacted,
01:34and it could cause job losses or profit losses that could impact the local economy.
01:40There's going to be a lot of pressure, definitely, obviously, from the ruling party,
01:45but also from people like Lucio Yen in the KMT who run local governments and see the impact on their
01:54constituents of continued high tariffs.
01:58And they're going to be pushing for the deal to pass.
02:01Zooming out a little bit, how do you think this could impact U.S. ties in East Asia or regional
02:07dynamics more broadly?
02:08I think the Chinese especially are going to be watching this very closely
02:13because it will probably impact a wider range of products coming out of China.
02:19And, of course, regional partners who've signed on to the 15% but have product categories that compete with low
02:26-end manufacturing coming out of China
02:28may be quite upset because the gap on those industries could potentially now, you know, widen.
02:37I think at the professional level, I think the trade negotiators, they know what's coming.
02:42They have a pretty good idea, and they're going to want to work with this.
02:46Opposition parties in Taiwan and in other countries may use this as an excuse to embarrass the ruling party.
02:53We're going to need to watch whether or not there's going to be a power struggle within the KMT
02:57between those who want to embarrass the administration and those who want to get on economically
03:02and make sure that their constituents and the businesses that employ them
03:07are working on a relatively level playing field with regional competitors and peers.
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