00:00Let's go straight to our guest, Alexandre Vultkov-Air, Scientific Director at the Center for Military History and Perspective in Geneva.
00:07Alexandre is a former battalion commander experienced in peace support operations, which Alexandre, at some point, one might perhaps expect to see at some resolution of this conflict, peacekeepers perhaps deployed on Ukrainian soil.
00:23But I also suspect that is something that Vladimir Putin would be dead set against.
00:30Yes, this has already been stated. It is the official Russian position that no European troops, peacekeepers, should be deployed in Ukraine.
00:41And as you have mentioned, this has happened before in 2014, 2015.
00:47At the time of the Crimea incidents, there were, if eventually, international peacekeepers, OSCE peacekeepers that were present.
00:57In terms of what is happening right now, we're two weeks down the line from that peace summit, if you call it, between Trump and Putin.
01:05Of course, famously, no Ukrainian presence in the room, which some people just don't understand.
01:10But those two men, of course, you've got to just basically let them get on with it to a certain degree, I suppose, thinking that there may be some kind of development.
01:17The only development that seems to have been, Alexandre, is more bombing and more death in Ukraine.
01:22So clearly, what is Putin playing at right now?
01:25What do you think his game plan is?
01:28Presumably gaining time, because at the moment these negotiations were taking place in Alaska,
01:35there was a very strong, a very potent Russian ground assault that was taking place,
01:43which eventually resulted in territorial gains.
01:47So I think we have this very idealized vision of politics on one side, diplomacy on one side, words on one side, and military on the other.
01:59We should simply know that in the Russian military doctrine, politics, diplomacy, words, information is part of warfare.
02:09It is one of the lines of operation of this special military operations.
02:14There is going to be a get-together between the Chinese leaders, North Korean leaders, Putin will be going there as well.
02:22No Western leaders will be present.
02:24Of course, on the other side of the equation, Trump, Wyckoff, thinking there's going to be some kind of development.
02:28Alexandre, do you think that Trump and Wyckoff are genuinely looking to resolve this war,
02:33or do you think they're looking beyond that for what they can get out of it financially, their business, their investments, those kind of things?
02:39I hear a lot of criticism about Trump decisions and policies, but at the same time, what he is, what he has managed to produce is some movement in the lines,
02:53because all of these countries that you have mentioned, which are directly or indirectly supporting Russia's war effort in Ukraine,
03:03for example, by making weapons available to Russia or specific components that cannot be produced in Russia,
03:11or even buying its petroleum, its oil production, all of this is producing, is creating a situation of tremendous economic tensions and tariffs.
03:25And so, yes, the lines will probably need to move on this respect.
03:30So, the game plan from Putin's perspective, if I understand it, is to basically keep pressing forward,
03:37and then at some point, he may have captured the land that he feels should be his at some point.
03:45Of course, going back to February 24, 2022, his plan was to take Ukraine in three days and assassinate Vladimir Zelensky, wasn't it?
03:52So, he's clearly failed on that score.
03:54Failed, if we look at the original objectives of this special military operation, and these objectives have changed in time,
04:04and also the tactics, the Russian main efforts have changed.
04:09So, we are now in a situation of attritional warfare.
04:14The pictures that you are showing right now clearly demonstrates this.
04:19We are talking about between 400 and 500 flying bombs, missiles of various types that are being fired on Ukraine,
04:29and this fire is being concentrated on densely populated areas.
04:34To give you just a scale, because this number 500 doesn't tell us very much,
04:40this is twice as many weapons as has been fired on the very first day, the surprise attack on the 22nd of February, 2022.
04:52This is twice as much as the aim of Ukraine to hit back, to strike back,
04:59with about 200 such weapons, drones, or missiles being fired into Russia every day.
05:07And 500 weapons, this is all of the weapons that have been fired by the Islamic Republic of Iran on Israel
05:17during the 12 days of military campaign that we have witnessed a few weeks ago.
05:23Indeed, these are remarkable figures you're coming up with, and it really does give us an interesting perspective.
05:28Alexandre, we're going to have, or we have right now, sorry, Emmanuel Macron and Friedrich Merz,
05:32this French president, German chancellor meeting in Bréguençon in the south of France,
05:39the French president's summer residence.
05:42What will they be thinking of, do you think?
05:44Clearly, what they decide, how they approach what happens next for Ukraine will be vital.
05:50Europe needs a plan.
05:52It needs more than a plan.
05:54It also needs a structure, a governance structure that allows to make very deliberate politically strategic decisions
06:06with regards to war and peace and security.
06:10And this architecture doesn't really exist in the European right now.
06:14So definitely all of this general discussion, political discussion is on the table.
06:19And at the same time, I think Emmanuel Macron has mentioned many, many times
06:24the issue of reassurance measures, in what shape or what form could these reassurance measures take?
06:33And here, definitely, we are seeing a lot of progress, a lot of developments taking place in Europe.
06:39Alexandre, as ever, thank you very much for joining us here in France 24.
06:41We always appreciate your time and your insight.
06:43Alexandre Vautravert, scientific director at the Centre for Military History and Perspective.
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