00:06Bangladesh votes. The verdict slams down. Bangladesh Nationalist Party did not just win,
00:12it dominated. Two-thirds majority, 200-plus seats as counting closes, a landslide in the
00:192026 general election. Tariq Rahman stands at the gates of power after 17 years in exile.
00:26He promises unity. He promises safety. He promises a new Bangladesh. But beneath the national sweep,
00:34Jamaat-e-Islami digs deep along India's border belts. Sadkhira flips. Rangpur tightens. Sherpur
00:41shifts. Jamaat concedes defeat nationally, yet questions result integrity. Minorities hold
00:48their breath. Delhi recalculates. South Asia tilts. BNP commands parliament. Jamaat commands
00:55pockets of geography that matter. We at India Today Global argue, does this mandate stabilize
01:01Bangladesh or redraw the security map for India? And what does this election mean for minorities
01:08in Bangladesh? Hello and welcome. You're watching Statecraft with me, Geeta Mohan.
01:20The 13th general election closes a cycle that began with the 2024 uprising that toppled Sheikh
01:27Hasina. Political wounds remain raw. Over 1,400 killed during the July Revolution. Institutions
01:34fractured. The Awami League banned from contesting. Into that vacuum steps the BNP under Tariq Rahman.
01:42The numbers tell the first story. BNP and allies cross the two-thirds mark with over 200 seats.
01:48Jamaat collects roughly 70-plus seats. Jamaat publicly concedes defeat but posts sharp objections,
01:55alleging inconsistencies, suspicious losses, reluctance by authorities to publish turnout figures and
02:03administrative leanings toward a major party. It urges patience. It signals struggle. It keeps its base
02:10alert. Prime Minister Narendra Modi calls Prime Minister-elect Tariq Rahman after the landslide.
02:17Diplomatic lines open fast. The United States Embassy congratulates BNP on a historic victory.
02:24Momentum belongs to the BNP. But momentum does not erase geography. Look at the map. Jamaat does not
02:32merely win seats. It consolidates in India-facing districts. Satkhira hugging West Bengal.
02:38Sherpur near Meghalaya's frontier. Naugau bordering West Bengal. Joypur Hutt.
02:43Rangpur constituencies in the Northern Belt. Gaibandha tied into the wider India-facing security
02:50grid. Bangladesh and India share a 4,096-kilometer border. Riverine, porous, fenced in paths,
02:58unfenced in others. Rivers shift course. Villages straddle invisible lines. Kinship networks stretch
03:05across. Border politics matter because district-level enforcement shapes frontier reality.
03:11Now break this down. Nationally, BNP rules. Locally, Jamaat influences sensitive belts.
03:19That duality defines the next chapter. What does Tariq Rahman say? He invokes Martin Luther King
03:26Jr. He mirrors I have a dream with I have a plan. He outlines three pillars in interviews. Rule of
03:34law,
03:34financial discipline, unity. He promises a safe Bangladesh for Muslims, Hindus, Buddhists and Christians
03:42alike. He declares that every woman, man, child must leave home safely and return safely. He distances
03:51himself from radical forces. He references 1971 and warns against those who sided against independence.
03:58He stops short of directly condemning specific anti-Hindu arson incidents.
04:06Delhi hears two notes, reassurance and bargaining. Reassurance because Tariq signals inclusivity and
04:13rejects overt Islamist capture. Bargaining because he questions past treaty imbalances with India and
04:20seeks a moral, equal, respectful footing. What about Jamaat? Jamaat rebrands. It speaks of
04:28justice, anti-corruption, discrimination-free governance. It feels its first Hindu candidate.
04:34It moderates Sharia rhetoric in campaign speeches, yet history shadows the party. In 1971,
04:42it opposed Bangladesh's independence and aligned with West Pakistan. Post-independence bans,
04:48tribunal prosecutions under Hasina, executions of senior leaders, registration cancelled in 2013,
04:55ban lifted in 2025. Supreme Court reinstatement. Political isolation ended after the July uprising.
05:04Jamaat re-enters formal politics. It demands a referendum on the July national charter,
05:09a reform framework born from the revolution.
05:13The Jamaat-e-Islami was a real power behind the throne for the last 18 months. They're the ones
05:19who've been exerting power. Mohammed Units has just been their spokesperson. And Jamaat-e-Islami had
05:26really worked hard to consolidate their own vote bank. They all knew that they never got a vote of more
05:32than 12 percent or so in any election. Normally, it's been less than 10 percent. In one election,
05:38they got 12.2 percent. And so that is why they had put together this coalition. They decided not to
05:44have a coalition with BNP this time, only the Islamist party. That itself was a very strange factor
05:51right in the very beginning. And also, we saw that the Islamist parties were the only ones represented in
05:56the government. You know, and the chief advisors and ministers who are called advisors, they were
06:03there. You know, the Islami Andolan, Bangladesh was there, Hizbut Harir was there, and so many others
06:08were there. So, it was really a matter of concern to the people, I think, because the Kertika government
06:16is supposed to be, you know, non-political. It's supposed to have only experts and advisors who will
06:22not, who are not members of political parties. So this was, I think, the first thing that aroused
06:26a real bit of concern. And then over the months, the Islamist parties like Islami Andolan, Bangladesh,
06:33is very much in favor of Sharia law. And Sharia law was part of the original manifesto
06:37of the Jamaat-e-Islami. But later on, Jamaat-e-Islami withdrew that, I think, under pressure from America.
06:45And then later on, we also know that the Washington Post carried an article which clearly indicated
06:49that America is supporting Jamaat-e-Islami. So they thought that, you know, the youngsters,
06:54the younger generation will perhaps be attracted to vote for them. But I think the Islamism of what
07:01Jamaat has been doing, that has really put off the people of Bangladesh. And, you know,
07:06Jamaat-e-Islami recently made a very strong statement against women. The Amir himself made
07:09that statement, you know, and saying that no woman will ever be head of Jamaat-e-Islami.
07:13This is some whatever he said. Very derogatory, very, very derogatory indeed. So I think this has
07:19really turned away many people.
07:23It rallies. It threatens Jamunagherau. It clashes with BNP workers in places like Pabna.
07:30Pre-poll violence injures dozens. Power-sharing disputes fracture the old alliance. The referendum
07:36ultimately rides alongside Election Day, symbolically approved, politically overshadowed by BNP's sweep.
07:43Now the sensitive layer. Minority rights. Within one week, amid anti-India protests,
07:51two Hindus, Deepu Chandra Das and Amrit Mondal, killed. Human rights groups flag intimidation,
07:57land disputes, silent displacement risks in border districts. Past cycles warn of minority
08:04vulnerability after regime changes. In 2001, post-election violence targeted Awami League supporters
08:11and minorities. Tariq Rahman now preaches unity. He forswears vengeance. He calls for control,
08:19not retribution. Words matter. Enforcement matters more. For India, minority safety in
08:26Bangladesh is not abstract. It shapes domestic political debate. Refugee flows, border tensions,
08:33and bilateral trust. Now consider the border risk profile. Indian intelligence assessments cited in
08:39media describe concern not about mass infiltration, but selective infiltration. Ideologues, fund couriers,
08:47digital handlers. Fewer in number, harder to detect, higher impact. District-level political
08:54control alters incentives. National leaders sign cooperation agreements, but local police,
09:01administrators, and political patrons decide how strictly to enforce. If Jamaat MPs dominate border
09:08constituencies, their ideological ecosystem influences local tone, even without executive power. That
09:15does not automatically mean security trouble. It does mean vigilance recalibrates.
09:22Shift to economics. Bangladesh's GDP rose from $71 billion in the year 2006 to $460 billion in the year
09:312022. Yet inflation bites. Youth unemployment stands at 13.5%. Two million young Bangladeshis enter the
09:40workforce annually. Over 40 million live in extreme poverty. BNP campaigns on a family card policy. Monthly cash
09:49for women and unemployed. Funding questions linger. Foreign reserves strain. Import restrictions hamper
09:56manufacturing. The tucker weakens. Economic frustration fuels radical narratives if governance falters.
10:04I think for them, from what I see as an observer and somebody who watches what's happening in Bangladesh,
10:14I think for the new government, law and order, which, you know, really deteriorated under
10:31the police. And the army was out in the field, but was not that active. So together, I think law
10:39and order
10:39will be a paramount, should be a paramount concern. And then I think the government will have to fix
10:45the economy. Because the economy is in a very bad state and, you know, their growth projections are
10:51very low. No investments have taken place in Bangladesh. And a lot of, you know, factories
10:59and business establishments have been vandalized, burned, due to the overall, you know, culture of political
11:08political revenge. And so I think these two will be a lot of repair work basically will have to be
11:18done
11:19so that, you know, Bangladesh can at some point at least come out of this vicious cycle of politics
11:26that they have of revenge and retribution. So I think there is a lot of responsibility on this government.
11:31Trade diplomacy shifts simultaneously. The United States initially imposes 37 percent tariffs,
11:38then reduces to 20 percent, then 19 percent after negotiations and market openings. Certain
11:45textile goods produced with American cotton enter tariff free. Tariq Rahman signals openness to purchasing
11:52Boeing aircraft and U.S. energy infrastructure to reduce trade deficits. Bangladesh seeks improved
11:59relations with both India and the U.S. India remains a critical neighbour and transit partner.
12:06Tista water sharing remains unresolved. Transit rights, border management, connectivity corridors
12:13all remain on the table. Now the big strategic question, what does this mean for India? Under Hasina,
12:20India enjoyed close security cooperation. Dhaka acted against anti-India insurgent networks operating
12:26from Bangladeshi soil. Political intimacy defined the relationship. Hasina's ouster and relocation to
12:33India complicate optics. Well, you know, my expectation is that it should certainly be better than what it
12:42was during this interim period. And, you know, but we should also not expect that suddenly, you know,
12:51everything will fall in place. And, you know, it will take time. Both sides will have to make a lot
12:57of effort to,
12:59you know, to build trust again. I think what happened in the last,
13:06you know, one, one, one and a half years and more is that the trust between the people of our
13:13two
13:13countries has got a little eroded. We saw the kind of statements which were coming out of Bangladesh did
13:20not help it at all and leadership level at that. So there is much that can be done. India has
13:27always
13:28said has had a policy of neighborhood first and in the neighborhood Bangladesh first. So within this
13:34parameter, I think there is much, a lot of diplomacy to take place between the two countries. And let's
13:43see how it moves forward. But definitely it's a positive development. BNP seeks functional ties,
13:50but rejects the perception of subordination. Tariq insists on Bangladesh first framing. For Delhi,
13:56a two thirds BNP majority offers clarity, a single strong counterpart. That is advantage.
14:03But Jamaat's entrenched presence in border belts injects complexity. That is risk. Will Jamaat create
14:11trouble? Trouble need not equal insurgency. It can mean agitation, parliamentary obstructions,
14:17street mobilization, pressure on anti-corruption probes. I think there are three or four, as I see it,
14:24but I'm sure that future Prime Minister Tariq Raman will decide his own priorities. But I think,
14:29first of all, if you talk directly in the context of India, then I think that security red lines are
14:35very important. And they were important when I was there as High Commissioner, when Begum Haldazi,
14:39I was Prime Minister. But at that time, we didn't get much satisfaction on that. Under Prime Minister
14:45Sheikh Hasina, she respected her security red line, 15 years, no problem, North East,
14:49full peace and development. But in the last 18 months, again, the situation has deteriorated.
14:54And you do, people talk that Parish Varoa is back in Dhaka and so on. So I think that this
15:00security
15:00aspect is very important. You know, you're just going to China and talking about North East India,
15:05then showing that map of Bangladesh, all these things are related to security aspects, perception
15:11about security aspects. This is the first group of issues for India, that's the most important.
15:16And I think the second group of issues, which is, I think, important for both Bangladesh and India,
15:21is the economic issues, you know, to restore the very good economic cooperation, trade and investment
15:27between Bangladesh and India. India has offered $8 billion in credit lines, some of it has not been used
15:33yet, so they can easily, there's a leeway to make new projects and new programs. And, you know,
15:39the way in which the, in 18 months, the Muhammad Yunus government put it across, you know,
15:45breaking up the framework of the cooperation and putting so many things, you know, so many decisions,
15:53they took executive decisions, which affected the trade. And the factories in Bangladesh couldn't get
15:59the things from India, the factories had to close down, they were not competitive anymore,
16:02hundreds of thousands of women lost their jobs because of that. So I think this would be a very
16:06important factor.
16:08Campaigns on Islamic identity, revival of referendum rhetoric, Jamaat already raises questions about
16:14election integrity. It signals readiness for continued political struggle. Its best ever opposition
16:21tallies strengthens its voice. However, BNP's outright majority restricts Jamaat's executive
16:28leverage. Without cabinet seats, Jamaat influences through pressure, not policy.
16:33Internal BNP factionalism also matters. Zia loyalists versus reformists. Managing unity becomes Tariq's
16:43first domestic test. A divided ruling party creates openings for opposition escalation.
16:50Now zoom out to South Asia. Bangladesh stands at the intersection of India's northeast connectivity,
16:57Bay of Bengal maritime routes and regional supply chains. Stability in Dhaka stabilizes corridors.
17:04Instability ripples outward. China's shadow lingers in infrastructure financing. Pakistan's historical ties
17:11with Islamist networks remain sensitive. The United States pushes trade recalibration under tariff
17:17pressure. In this chessboard, Bangladesh does not align fully with any one capital. It negotiates.
17:26Tariq's not Dhilli, not Pindi line encapsulates that balancing act. For India, the path forward rests on
17:34five pillars. One, maintain robust border security cooperation at district levels regardless of local
17:40political color. Focus on professional enforcement, not partisan assumptions. Two, accelerate economic
17:48interdependence. Trade binds where ideology divides. Connectivity projects reduce friction. Three, resolve
17:57water disputes with urgency. Tista remains symbolic and substantive. Four, support minority rights through
18:05principled diplomacy, not megaphone politics that fuels nationalist backlash. Five, avoid framing
18:13Bangladesh's domestic shifts as zero-sum geopolitical losses. Overreaction empowers radicals.
18:21Now return to minority rights. Tariq promises safety. He invokes inclusivity repeatedly. Yet, he avoids
18:29explicit condemnation of specific anti-Hindu arson incidents during speeches. That gap fuels skepticism.
18:37Minority communities will judge by arrests made, cases prosecuted, compensation delivered, and police
18:44protection ensured, not by rhetoric. Jamaat's moderated campaign tone does not erase 1971 memory, nor does it
18:54automatically predict 2026 outcomes. The test lies in behavior under opposition pressure. If Jamaat amplifies street
19:02mobilization in border districts, minorities may feel immediate impact. If BNP asserts rule of law firmly,
19:10minority confidence strengthens. The July National Charter hovers above all this. It promises electoral reform,
19:18anti-corruption tribunals, caretaker mechanisms, rights commissions, devolution. Non-binding but morally
19:25potent. Implementation requires two-thirds constitutional action. BNP holds numbers. Will it act or will
19:33it delay? Many call this unconstitutional. Jamaat can claim betrayal if reform stall. Students who drove
19:40their uprising watch carefully. Disillusionment among youth risks fueling another wave of unrest if
19:46expectations collapse. Bangladesh stands at a crossroads. A strong mandate offers opportunity for
19:53decisive governance. A fractured political ecosystem offers risk of agitation. Border belts amplify stakes
20:00for India. Economic stress amplifies stakes for stability. So where does this land? Short term, stability.
20:08BNP commands parliament. International recognition flows. Diplomatic outreach begins. Medium term, tension.
20:16Jamaat tests opposition muscle. Border districts become narrative battlegrounds. Minority incidents spark
20:22scrutiny. Referendum promises resurface. Long term, outcome depends on delivery. If Tariq Rahman enforces
20:30rule of law consistently, protects minorities visibly, advances charter reforms and manages foreign policy
20:37pragmatically, Bangladesh consolidates democracy. If factionalism, economic stagnation or security lapses
20:45creep in. Radical narratives gain oxygen. India cannot dictate Dhaka's politics. It can shape incentives.
20:53Engage early. Engage consistently. Strengthen institutional ties beyond personalities. BNP's landslide closes one
21:02chapter but opens another. Jamaat's concession ends the vote but not the contest. Minorities await proof of
21:09protection. Delhi recalculates the frontier. South Asia adjusts to a new balance where a dominant BNP
21:17government coexists with a strategically positioned Islamist opposition. The ballot delivered clarity
21:24numbers. It did not eliminate complexity in geography. The mandate stands firm. The map remains sensitive.
21:31The next moves decide whether 2026 marks the consolidation of a safe, inclusive Bangladesh,
21:38or the quiet redrawing of fault lines along one of the world's most delicate borders.
21:45History offers caution. Bangladesh has experienced cycles of hope followed by disillusionment.
21:51Yet it has also demonstrated remarkable economic dynamism and social resilience.
21:57The region stands at a hinge moment. A decisive mandate can either stabilize the nation still healing
22:03from uprising or concentrate power in ways that ignite new tensions. India recalibrates.
22:10Minorities wait. Youth demand delivery. Opposition strategizes. The world watches.
22:17Bangladesh's future now rests less on election arithmetic and more on governance arithmetic.
22:23Justice plus growth plus inclusion plus restraint. If those variables align,
22:29the landslide becomes foundation. If they fracture, the map redraws itself once more.
22:36The story is not finished. It has only entered its governing phase. So where does this leave Bangladesh?
22:42And where does it leave the region? Will Tariq Rahman choose reconciliation over retribution?
22:47After 17 years in exile, does he see history as something to avenge or something to transcend?
22:54What about the opposition? Can Jamaat-e-Islami reinvent itself as a parliamentary force rather than a street
23:00mobilizer? Bangladesh stands at a hinge. Power has changed hands decisively.
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