00:00What are you expecting from the Bank of England right now?
00:02I can't be too excited, can I?
00:04I mean, it's quite exciting. I think so.
00:06It is.
00:06I guess they're not going to do anything.
00:09But to me, it's more around, firstly, the vote to split.
00:12You know, how many dissenters do we get?
00:14Obviously, December was a very close call.
00:16We had Governor Bailey effectively making that kind of final decision.
00:19So do we get any excitement there?
00:21And then really, it's going to be about around the forward guidelines, guidance.
00:25What do they kind of, if anything, let that they think they're going to happen?
00:28I mean, our base case is that actually what the market's pricing is probably undershoots what could happen
00:34if we do get the inflation coming down as expected in the second quarter.
00:38We're starting to, as you mentioned, we're starting to see weakness in the,
00:41or weakness continues in the labour market, at least from sort of job growth.
00:45I think this is an environment where the Bank of England could do a little bit more,
00:48but they do need to see inflation come down.
00:50I know one thing that they don't want to talk about will be the political.
00:53But actually, you know, the chances of Keir Starmer leaving is now starting to be priced in at the margins in the market.
00:59So how does the Bank of England deal with that?
01:00I think the Bank of England should continue to do what it always does, which is focus on the economy.
01:05Obviously, there will be concerns around more the long end of the gilt market.
01:09We're seeing the curve steepen up to levels that we haven't seen for a number of years.
01:13At the moment, the front end should still focus on what they're planning and what they're thinking about.
01:17And that's actually where I've got more conviction in, because I do think you're playing economics in the front end,
01:22and maybe politics might have more of an impact towards the longer end.
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