00:00It is still, though, a live decision for the BOE, Lizzie.
00:02Very much so, and we've been speaking to analysts this week, haven't we, who actually see a cut.
00:06Barclays, for example, Goldman and Nomura too, and even if they do hold Tom, it could be a really tight vote split.
00:126-3 is the expectation, but some are saying it could hinge on the governor this.
00:16Why? Because we're inching towards neutral.
00:18Yes, we don't know where neutral is, but most economists we speak to say it's about 3%,
00:23and the closer they get to it, the more slowly and carefully they're going to want to move.
00:27There's also the elephant in the room, which is the budget, of course, on November the 26th.
00:32And, you know, we heard from the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, earlier this week, promising it's going to be disinflationary,
00:36but I doubt that the Monetary Policy Committee is going to want to vote as if it's disinflationary
00:41without having seen the policies themselves.
00:44And we should say that the forecasts today, the updated forecasts, are somewhat moot because of that budget,
00:49even if the expectation is they're going to downgrade the inflation outlook compared to August for next year and this year,
00:56but keep the growth and unemployment forecasts the same.
00:59I'm really interested to hear what the governor has to say about the budget,
01:03because you'll remember Rachel Reeves said that the Bank of England keeping rates at 4% is holding back business borrowing.
01:09So let's see if Andrew Bailey's got a shot to pop the other way.
01:13Yeah, a veiled or maybe less veiled criticism, interestingly, from the Chancellor in that speech, as you say.
01:19And so Andrew Bailey's comments will be in focus at the press conference, 12.30, but also in an interview with him as well.
01:25What are you expecting to be the focus when it comes to the press conference?
01:29Well, the question is, if they hold today, how long is that pause going to last?
01:32Are we actually going to get a cut in December?
01:35And to kind of answer that question, I'm really going to be listening to how the governor characterises that 3.8% inflation read that we had the last time.
01:43Because, yes, that's lower than the Bank of England's forecast and the consensus forecast, but it's still nearly twice the BOE's target.
01:49How do they talk about the labour market?
01:51Because last time, there were lots of hawkish hints.
01:54They were emphasising the worries about food inflation, inflation expectations as well.
02:00If they're much more dovish in the communications and if they cut rates today,
02:05you could see this continued outperformance of gilts that we saw through October,
02:09and $1.30 is the key level on cable that you need to watch.
02:12$1.30, as we look at cable right now, at $1.30.67, just up a tenth of a cent so far in the session.
02:19Lizzie Burden with a fantastic set-up for a big day for the BOE.
02:23This meeting is live, of course.
02:25We'll bring you all our special coverage, of course, of that rate decision from Bank of England,
02:30beginning at 12.15pm with Governor Bailey's press conference later in the hour.
02:35Do not miss our interview, of course, with Andrew Bailey.
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