00:00I think it would be smart to just start with the numbers that we have now.
00:04It's a four-and-a-half-point number.
00:06It started three-and-a-half and quickly zoomed up to five.
00:11We have seen a shopper, too, go back to that five,
00:14but we've pretty much been sitting four-and-a-half for a week on this number.
00:20You're under the impression that this is likelier to get underneath this four
00:25than perhaps up to a five-and-a-half, six number maybe.
00:29Yes, I do.
00:30And, again, I think the more that you break it down from the odds perspective
00:34and from just the football aspect, and we talk about, yeah, all right,
00:40New England's not doing it explosively, offensively.
00:43It's been their defense.
00:45They've been more methodical, more ball control.
00:47They've been winning the turnover battle, and somehow, some way,
00:51they've been grinding out victories, right?
00:53The one game that was the outlier was the five-interception performance
00:57or five-turnover performance by Houston where they put them into short fields
01:02and obviously had an opportunity to score.
01:04But the 9-0 on a neutral field or on the road this year I think can't go unnoticed.
01:09I just think that when you break it down and the more that we inch closer to kickoff,
01:14people and gamblers that are sharp are going to be taking the points
01:18and maybe banging the under a little bit.
01:20If you like New England, I think the perception is you take the points
01:25and you hope for under the 45-and-a-half.
01:27I think if you're taking the points with New England,
01:30I actually think they have to push a little bit of tempo
01:33and be the team to dictate how this game is played
01:36because if they fall from behind, I think that'll be a huge benefit
01:41to Seattle's secondary and, more importantly, front seven.
01:43So what is so interesting with this side is, and we'll talk trends this week.
01:52I want to be very careful with how we bring them up
01:56because you can usually shape any trend to get where you want to go, right?
02:01But in recent years, right, underdogs have been profitable in the Super Bowl.
02:07They win outright.
02:09But what we have also not seen much are big numbers.
02:15And, look, it's all in the eye of the beholder,
02:18but you have to adjust for the stage, okay?
02:20In the NFL, seven is a big number, right, in a regular season.
02:25In college, that's going to be a great football game, right?
02:28The National Championship, Miami, India.
02:30In college, a big number is like 35.
02:32My point is this.
02:34I think this is a big number for a Super Bowl.
02:38This is what we have in – people tell me all the time,
02:42hey, you should be grateful for how the Super Bowl are.
02:45You can – back in the 90s.
02:46Right.
02:47These things were awful.
02:48Yeah.
02:48We always knew the NFC was going to win.
02:50They always did.
02:50Dallas or San Fran just traded off.
02:52Went like – this is different.
02:53But this is where we are now.
02:55And in recent Super Bowl history,
02:58we're used to just getting pick one-and-a-half point numbers, right?
03:02We – you know, I've tried to go back through the numbers,
03:05and it's kind of like hit or miss on –
03:08they say the Rams-Bengals game in some spots were four-and-a-half.
03:11I swear, as someone who covered that Super Bowl, you –
03:13I know – I think that line was three-and-a-half, three,
03:15more so than four-and-a-half.
03:17But never the – like, I would argue – and I'm wondering if you disagree,
03:21which is fine.
03:22I think four-and-a-half is a big number for a Super Bowl in 2026.
03:25It's obviously more than a field goal, but it's still a key number, the four.
03:29Whenever you get that 24-20, we're talking about a push or a win,
03:32depending upon if it gets down to three-and-a-half or not.
03:35So, obviously, I think if you're taking the dog, now is the opportunity.
03:38I don't personally believe we're going to creep back up.
03:42I think we're only going to go down.
03:43Now, maybe I'm wrong, and I'll admit that,
03:46but I just think based off of perception and based off of just what we've seen,
03:51the reason why we saw it open at three-and-a-half, right,
03:55is that's where the books established it.
03:57Yep.
03:57But we jumped up to five because of how explosive Sam Donald in Seattle was
04:04and how inept New England was and going up against a backup quarterback.
04:09And so, I think when you just take that into account,
04:13the perception is, well, Seattle has a much better quarterback
04:16heading into this matchup because of how Sam Donald has looked,
04:20as opposed to Drake May, which has been maybe turnover-prone.
04:24He's been making more plays on the ground than with his arm.
04:29And I think if you just play that out cookie-cutter,
04:31that's why you see four-and-a-half.
04:33But I think the more that you dive in deeper
04:36and knowing that McDaniels has been here
04:38and Vrabel has won three Super Bowls,
04:41the game plan has to be to really expose Seattle from a defensive weakness,
04:46and I hope that's the way it plays out.
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