Europe concerned about a potential Trump victory

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00:00Many European leaders are considering the prospect of another Trump presidency with a sense of, well, trepidation.

00:10They fear what it could mean for U.S. support for Ukraine, for NATO, among other worries.

00:15On the other hand, Kamala Harris would mean a very different approach.

00:19Here at Fast 24, Monty Francis with this.

00:23When Donald Trump announced J.D. Vance as his running mate,

00:28it reignited fears about what a second Trump term could mean for Europe.

00:32Vance has made his isolationist views clear from the start.

00:36Just after Russia launched its full-scale invasion in Ukraine, he said on a podcast,

00:42quote, I got to be honest with you, I don't really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another.

00:49Trump himself has put ongoing funding for Kiev in doubt

00:52and has vowed he would end the war in 24 hours if he wins without explaining how.

00:58He's also said he would not come to the defense of a NATO ally that was under attack by Russia

01:03if that member wasn't paying a sufficient amount on its own defense.

01:07No, I would not protect you.

01:09In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want.

01:12You got to pay.

01:14The U.S. Congress has since passed legislation to limit a president's ability to pull out of NATO.

01:20But with the exception of Hungary's Trump-friendly Viktor Orban,

01:23EU leaders have spent months increasingly concerned about what a Trump-Vance administration

01:29could mean for Europe's overall security.

01:32If 2024 brings us America first again, it will be more than ever Europe on its own.

01:43When it became clear that Trump would be the Republican candidate in 2024,

01:47French President Emmanuel Macron argued that Europe should be more assertive on the world stage

01:52and not depend on the U.S. for its own long-term security.

01:56Will the U.S. administration remain the same?

02:00No one knows, and we cannot delegate our collective security and our stability

02:05to the choice of American voters in the years to come.

02:10When NATO members gathered in Washington in July,

02:13they made attempts to make the alliance Trump-proof,

02:16agreeing to support Ukraine on an irreversible path to NATO membership,

02:21along with a long-term pledge of funding to key from NATO allies.

02:25Even with a new Secretary General in Mark Rutte,

02:28the pragmatic Prime Minister of the Netherlands,

02:31who some have referred to as the Trump Whisperer,

02:34there are fears that if Trump ends up in the White House a second time,

02:38he could still undermine the alliance.

02:42Let's bring in Fraser Jackson, our Washington correspondent,

02:44casting his critical eye, as always, on how both U.S. presidential candidates are shaping up,

02:49and now zooming in on the U.S.-Europe relationship.

02:53Fraser, great to see you, looking nice and sunny where you are,

02:56raining here in Paris, we can't have everything.

02:58Trump is for Brussels, an ill wind perhaps that could blow cold across the continent,

03:03protectionist in business, against support for Ukraine,

03:06Trump even a fan of Vladimir Putin, who's wanted for war crimes in Ukraine.

03:10What would a Trump presidency have in store for Europe, do you think?

03:13Give us a sense of that.

03:17I think the worry of that Trump presidency is looming over the United Nations General Assembly,

03:22several foreign diplomats worrying about this, preparing for the future.

03:27That is also what I'm hearing in my discussions with these diplomats here in Washington, D.C.

03:32They are preparing for, as one person called it, the worst-case scenario,

03:36and they are concerned that if Trump gets in, those comments that he's made in the past

03:41about NATO membership and Ukraine will hold true.

03:44He's been speaking about this as recently as Tuesday night,

03:48where he said that Vladimir Zelensky is the world's greatest salesman.

03:54He said every time he comes to Washington, he walks away with $100 billion.

03:59It must be said that the State Department so far says it has given Ukraine $56 billion in total since 2022,

04:07and there's no evidence that any more than that has gone out of the U.S. coffers.

04:11But I hear this clearly, something that Donald Trump is running on

04:15and something that his base are listening to as well.

04:18I'm going to read you just a quick takeaway from a poll that came out just a couple of weeks ago,

04:23talking about the U.S. support for Ukraine.

04:27They polled Republicans and Democrats as to whether they think that the U.S. should stay in the war as long as it takes,

04:34or they should leave within an increment of one or two years, five to ten years.

04:38The majority of Republican voters, 53% of them, said that they wanted Ukraine to be funded for up to one or two years.

04:4537% said that they should stay as long as it takes.

04:49That number jumps significantly to 63% when you look at Democrats,

04:54who say that the U.S. should stay with Ukraine as long as it takes for them to win this war.

04:58The other interesting thing, the level of funding.

05:00This has been something that the Republicans have touted many times,

05:03that Ukraine was getting too much money, and it appears that that is also resonating with their voter base.

05:09There was a bit of a split here.

05:1152% of Republicans said that Ukraine is getting too much money from the American government,

05:17whereas most Democrats, 39% of those polled, said that it's about the right level.

05:22So significant split there between not only the candidates at the top of the ticket,

05:26but also the bases that they represent.

05:28Kamala Harris, of course, has rebooted the Democrat challenge since taking over from Joe Biden.

05:34I understand leading in the polls, but you, of course, will correct me on that if I'm wrong,

05:38because your knowledge is far greater than mine, and I bow to it.

05:42What would it mean if she wins?

05:44Would it be basically a continuation of the Biden situation?

05:50It's pretty much business as usual if Kamala Harris does take over the presidency from Joe Biden.

05:56That's something that Kamala Harris will be discussing with Volodymyr Zelensky

06:00when he comes here to the White House on Thursday.

06:02He'll also be meeting with Joe Biden.

06:04Notably, there is no meeting with Trump on the cards,

06:06although apparently Volodymyr Zelensky did ask for one, but the Trump campaign not giving him one.

06:10So something to read into there.

06:12But yeah, that definitely will be what the Ukrainians will be hoping for,

06:15is that there will be a continuation of a Democratic White House,

06:18because that funding that they so desperately need, that victory plan that they want to put to the Democrats

06:23so key to their victory will continue under Kamala Harris,

06:27pretty much, like I said, with business as usual.

06:30So it's going to be something that everybody will be watching closely,

06:34and the Ukrainians will be watching closely as they try to get this victory plan in effect

06:39before the November election and then ultimately the January inauguration as well.

06:47So something to look out for there.

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