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In an exclusive interview with India Today, World Economic Forum President Borge Brende hailed India as the fastest growing of the large economies in the world, contributing to 20% of the overall global growth.
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00:00Hello and welcome to this India Today and Business Today special coming to you from the World Economic Forum in an icy cold Davos in Switzerland.
00:13And it could be coming at a more appropriate time because the world is facing arguably its most complex geopolitical and geo-economic challenges since the Second World War.
00:25Over the next few days, my colleague Siddharth Zarabi, the group editor of Business Today and I, Rajdeep Sardesai, will take you through all that's happening as world leaders converge here in Davos, including the man of the moment, the U.S. President Donald Trump.
00:43We'll have thought leaders and newsmakers join us here on India Today, Business Today at this Davos brainstorm.
00:51And who better to kick off this special coverage than Borje Brende, the president of the World Economic Forum, the former foreign minister of Norway.
01:02Thank you very much, Mr. Brende, for joining us here at the World Economic Forum.
01:07You couldn't have chosen, one would argue, a more appropriate time to bring world leaders together and you've called it the spirit of dialogue.
01:14But out there in the real world, we're seeing very little dialogue and more confrontation.
01:19In fact, even as we speak, a potential confrontation now politically and economically between Europe and the United States over Greenland.
01:28How are you seeing dialogue in this conflicting world?
01:33You know, dialogue is a prerequisite for making any kind of progress.
01:37And you're right. Currently, the dialogue going on is really challenged, that's for sure.
01:45And as you said, we are faced with the most complicated geopolitical backdrop since 1945.
01:53But still, in Davos here, we have 65 heads of states and governments, thousands of the leading CEOs of the world.
02:01So hopefully, by having him here, inside and not outside, because it's pretty cold, that outside is reflecting the geopolitical situation, I think, we might make progress on a few issues.
02:14You know, you're repeating what you've also said earlier and what I introduced, that this is the most complex geopolitical environment since 1945.
02:24I mentioned specifically the possibility now of an escalating trade and political war between Europe and the United States over Greenland.
02:34President Trump seems to suggest that he is determined to go ahead and get Greenland either by buying it or through coercion.
02:44How are you seeing all of that playing out? I come back to it.
02:47How do you see dialogue when there is so much of confrontation and unilateralism?
02:52So we have seen that some impulses have also been able to be dealt with.
03:00So they have been kind of breaking impulses.
03:03Look at the situation between the U.S. and China.
03:06A little bit less than a year ago, there were tariffs of 150 percent.
03:12They came together.
03:13And now Mr. Trump is going on a state visit to China in April.
03:18And there are in concrete dialogues because they found out, both of them, that this decoupling wasn't a good idea because it wasn't possible because they're so intertwined, these economies.
03:29U.S. depend on Chinese rare earth and water manufacturing.
03:34And then China also depends on some of the most advanced microchips and semiconductors from the U.S.
03:41So it will be very interesting when it comes to Europe and the U.S. this week.
03:46All the European leaders are basically here.
03:48Trump is coming with almost his full cabinet.
03:51Maybe they also break some impulses this week.
03:54Who knows?
03:55Do you see a solution to this impulse between Europe and the United States?
03:59Because Europe is threatening now to use its potential coercive instruments, including the bazooka, and having countervailing tariffs on the United States if the U.S. puts tariffs on Europe.
04:10And Greenland is stuck in the middle.
04:12It's a country you know well in terms of the fact that because Denmark, a neighbor of Norway, governs Greenland.
04:20Is there a solution you see through dialogue at all?
04:24Or are we entering a world where might is right and coercion will take over?
04:28The United States says, might is right.
04:30We're going to take it over.
04:31You know, when a situation is escalating, it's harder to see how you're going to maneuver out of it.
04:38And now there is definitely hard words out there.
04:43But, you know, the U.S. and Europe also really, really, you know, are very dependent on each other.
04:51It's large trading partners.
04:53It's cultural connections for centuries.
04:58So let's see now when Mr. Trump arrives on Wednesday.
05:03We will have also the key European leaders here.
05:07We also will have Zelensky here.
05:09So we know there is going to be discussions on Ukraine.
05:12It's going to be discussions also on the second phase of Gaza.
05:16But it's hard to predict.
05:18But maybe the mountain air here, the clear, crisp mountain air will clear everyone's head.
05:25Let me turn the focus to India.
05:27But continuing from what you've been telling us,
05:30the European Union and India are at very advanced stages of a trade deal.
05:35And the fact that we've been working on it with the European Union for quite some time,
05:41and we might see a culmination of that process,
05:45how significant would you think this would be,
05:48given that the overall trade framework globally is completely disrupted?
05:52So we have seen the European Union also taking a very proactive approach here.
05:59Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the Commission,
06:01was just in Latin America, still in Sao Paulo yesterday,
06:05signing this Mercosur deal.
06:08Many of the big Latin American countries having a trade deal with Europe.
06:12That was not foreseen,
06:13because there are many difficult issues related to also agriculture.
06:17Now, I think it's time for India and the EU.
06:23There have been also traditionally many challenges there.
06:26But I think both of EU and India,
06:29and EU is the largest market in the world,
06:31still see that there are benefits,
06:33and also sending a strong signal if that deal is going to be made.
06:39I would say, though, to the trade outlook,
06:42we still expect 3% growth in trade this year.
06:45So it's not contracting.
06:47It's just growing slower than in the past.
06:50Trade is like water.
06:51It finds its way.
06:53You've been to India in the recent past.
06:56We already have a pretty unique agreement with the EFTA nations.
07:01From your point of view,
07:03where do you think India's global trade re-engagement stands today?
07:07Do you think it's the right thing in this kind of global trade order?
07:12And this is after a time when we walked away from some trade deals around 5, 10 years ago.
07:18So it is incredible how much economic reforms that have happened in India just the last months.
07:26I was expecting, but I thought it was going to happen in the coming decade.
07:31I think the situation between the U.S. and India has accelerated some of the political initiatives from the government.
07:38I think also, though, down the line, down the road, there will be an agreement between the U.S. and India.
07:45But I think India's perspective now is maybe more one of big self-confidence.
07:52It's the fastest growing of the large economies in the world,
07:55contributing to 20% of the overall global growth.
07:58It's incredible.
07:59I think in that situation, India can make deals on trade that's in India's interest.
08:05I think that is the thing.
08:06India will do it when it is in the interest of the long-term development of India.
08:11We'll come to India back again, but I want to come back to the elephant in the room.
08:16You mentioned that Donald Trump will be here on Wednesday.
08:19There will be European leaders.
08:20There will be leaders from across the world.
08:22There's Zelensky there.
08:23The fear that many have is that the world trade order has been upended and increasingly the old alignments are also under stress.
08:33NATO, for example, what happens tomorrow if Donald Trump goes ahead and takes Greenland?
08:39Where does that leave NATO?
08:41Where does that leave these old alliances?
08:42When you said that this is the most difficult or complex period since 1945,
08:48is that in a way that the old order is completely getting disrupted?
08:52And where does that leave organizations like NATO?
08:56I don't think the old order is totally disrupted.
09:00We just discussed trade, for example.
09:02Still 75% of the global trade happens under the World Trade Organization, WTO's, rules and regulations.
09:11But new deals are maybe not multilateral.
09:14I think on NATO and the relationship between Europe and the U.S., this is particularly delicate this week.
09:23I think that this alliance will continue.
09:26I think they will find a way.
09:28But it's hard to see what the path is just now.
09:32But I think we need to see, like, that the tension goes down.
09:38And then, you know, sometimes the negotiation tactic is also to go very far out there.
09:43And then there will be something in the middle later on.
09:47But, you know, now this is having a lot of the focus.
09:51Last week it was Venezuela.
09:52The week before it was Iran.
09:54And then it was Gaza.
09:56Then it was Ukraine.
09:57And then it was also East Asia Sea.
10:02So we just have to deal with all these complexities at the same time.
10:07And hopefully we will see no real escalation into a big war.
10:11Because that is not likely.
10:13But that is the most dramatic scenario that will also kill growth.
10:16Because growth is back now in the global economy.
10:19More than 3% is not bad, you know.
10:21No, it is.
10:21But the world's...
10:23From a distance, at least from an Indian perspective, seems to be in perpetual conflict.
10:28And therefore, as I said, it seems that the world order is appended.
10:31Even as we are at the World Economic Forum, on my way I got a flash that the Iranian foreign minister
10:36is supposed to come to address the World Economic Forum.
10:39U.S. senators are saying, why is the Iranian foreign minister being invited to the World Economic Forum?
10:46So tensions seem to be rising.
10:48And at the same time, India has been invited to be part of a board of peace on Gaza.
10:53So on Gaza, we are seeing a ray of hope.
10:56On Iran, the world seems to be in conflict.
10:58It seems a very, very complicated place and time to be in.
11:03Do you really see the potential for a dialogue?
11:06Do you see this uncertainty settling down?
11:09Or as long as Donald Trump is in the White House or at WEF, we don't know what tomorrow will bring.
11:15So I'm much more of a glass half full than half empty guy.
11:19When we met last year in Davos, we were very concerned that the geopolitical confrontations would kill global growth.
11:29And now we're back in Davos and the global growth is higher than we expected.
11:33We also see that the new technologies, artificial intelligence, the frontier technologies, are driving growth and investments that we haven't seen in decades.
11:43So trade is growing slower.
11:45But it's going slowly.
11:47The trade piece is growing slower.
11:49But we do think that the frontier technologies can replace trade as a global growth engine.
11:55So who would have thought that we were sitting here in Davos a year later, we have higher trade growth, we have huge investments in the new technologies, and the overall growth perspective is not bad.
12:07So it seems like even this catches a lot of headlines in media, that countries also find a way to adapt.
12:17I think this is also on the trade piece.
12:20They have adapted to a new reality.
12:22That's why they do bilateral trade agreements, mega trade agreements, and we will see also in global cooperation that now the Security Council in the UN is not the place where the most important negotiations are happening.
12:38They're more bilateral and different.
12:40And, of course, you do see interest spheres established.
12:44And this is contrary to what we predicted with multipolar world.
12:48Multipolar world would mean a lot of countries.
12:50No, it seems like there are some big movers and shakers that are in control.
12:56So how do we describe it?
12:57If it's not multipolar, how do we describe a world where there's global cooperation, bilateral cooperation taking place, and conflicts also?
13:05It almost seems as if conflict and cooperation coexist at the moment across the world.
13:09Exactly.
13:10I think we are seeing, like, cooperation in a very competitive world.
13:20Cooperation in a very competitive world.
13:23Interesting.
13:24Yeah, but that would also raise the question that what happens to smaller economies?
13:29Where might is right cannot be their operating principle.
13:32Do you think smaller economies, smaller nations are at a risk in this kind of trade order and bilateral one-on-one engagements that are evolving?
13:42Yes, I do.
13:43So, but they will also form a coalition of willings.
13:48So you mentioned EFTA earlier where there was a trade deal between EFTA and India.
13:54EFTA is, like, the only international organization where Switzerland and Norway are superpowers.
13:59It's Norway, Switzerland, Liechtenstein, and Iceland.
14:02But they're, like, 12th largest economy in the world.
14:04They came together, and they're forming trade relations under cost.
14:09Yeah, under the radar screen.
14:10Yeah.
14:11And I think the smaller nations will come together.
14:13For India, though, it's now a big economy.
14:15You know, I think it's going to be a 10 trillion U.S. economy pretty soon.
14:20So India will have now to balance also in this very fragmented, competitive world.
14:29How should India balance China?
14:31It is, I think, India better to answer than for me.
14:37I think India so far has dealt with a very delicate situation wisely, not rushing it.
14:45But as I said, I do think there will be an agreement between India and the U.S. down the road.
14:52Because I think also U.S. wants a good relationship with India.
15:01And U.S. also wants checks and balances in Asia.
15:05And they probably don't find anyone else than India that has the size to represent a balance.
15:11I guess that is the thinking in D.C.
15:14But then there are some short-term obstacles there that have to be mitigated.
15:20No, I'm being a diplomat again.
15:22Yeah, you're being very diplomatic.
15:23So I'm going to push you on that.
15:24If I were to ask you, Mr. Brende, the top three risks, and some of them are part of the discussions that you're having at the World Economic Forum,
15:32what would those top three risks be to ensuring a more stable world order at the moment,
15:38which allows growth, which allows trade across the world, smaller and larger economies?
15:43What would be the top three risks the world is facing at the moment?
15:47If we were to say one, two, three.
15:48No, I think I already touched on the biggest risk that is not very likely, but with huge potential impact.
15:55It's like if the Iranian situation had escalated and got out of control, it could have affected the whole Gulf region.
16:04That is also extremely important for oil and gas.
16:07So war is escalating, and with the big powers on different sides, that is the biggest risk, but hopefully not happening.
16:18I would say second, probably bubbles in the economy.
16:24The AI bubble?
16:24There can be like an AI bubble, it can be a crypto bubble.
16:29There can also be a debt bubble, because we are more indebted than any other time since 1945.
16:35So many countries have as the biggest expenditure on their state budget that is paying on the interest.
16:40I would say, though, bubbles, AI bubble and crypto bubble, it's easier to handle, because we haven't had bubbles before.
16:47We had the railway bubble, we had the electricity bubble, we had the dot-com bubble, but the technologies are still there.
16:52But the debt thing is more affecting the financial system.
16:57So that's why we really need a lot of growth moving forward to grow out of it.
17:02I would say the third one are like the black swans, like future pandemics, it is like cyber crime, warfare, those things that are the black swans.
17:17You're being very diplomatic in the sense that you're not including the man who you're hosting in a couple of days, Donald Trump.
17:24He's going to be in power for another three years.
17:26We don't know what comes next with Donald Trump.
17:28Last week it was Venezuela.
17:29You take over a country, effectively remove the leader of that country, take over that oil economy, not speaking about human rights or democracy, but speaking about oil.
17:40Do you feel that Donald Trump is one of the global risks that the world runs, this Trumpian world order, where we don't know what tomorrow will bring?
17:47You'll be very Trump-focused.
17:50You, you, you.
17:51Well, I can see all eyes.
17:53Davos, the very fact that Donald Trump has created such a buzz that he's coming here.
17:57I mentioned the fact that you've also got, interestingly, Mr. Borger, you've got the Iranian foreign minister coming here.
18:05So you've been careful to balance, in a sense, spheres of influence.
18:08The U.S. president is a fact, and he will be there in the years to come.
18:15But in Davos, you know, we also have a lot of other key players.
18:19We have, for the first time, the Syrian president, we have President Sisi from Egypt.
18:23We have practically six out of seven G7 leaders.
18:27But it's true that Donald Trump also attracts a lot of media attention.
18:31I think one has to deal with the U.S. administration case by case, and then I think it's totally possible to have a dialogue.
18:43I mentioned India-U.S. I think it's going to be sold.
18:47I think they're going to find ways also on the tariffs and Greenland.
18:52I think we're going to make progress even on, hopefully, on Ukraine and Gaza during this week.
18:57So I think we just have to be used to a lot of noise, and then we have to look at it in a systemic way.
19:06What can we still do in, like, a totally different context than we used to operate in?
19:13I make a very interesting point.
19:15You're saying the media should perhaps focus less on the noise that comes out, emanates, let's say, from White House,
19:20and look at perhaps the other relationships that are being struck quietly under the radar in some instances
19:26that actually make the world, you hope, a better place or a more stable order,
19:32that don't focus all your attention on what happens in and out of the White House.
19:39Am I correct?
19:39I couldn't have said it better myself.
19:42Interesting.
19:43You know, we've just got a couple of moments to go, a couple of minutes.
19:47Overall, as you sit here today from your vantage point in DeVos,
19:53do you believe the world is in a better place in 2026, January, than it was a year ago?
19:58Or do you believe 2026 will be a decisive year, given the fact, as we said at the outset,
20:05we are facing a very complex geopolitical environment?
20:08Is 2026 going to be the critical year in a way for the world?
20:11The economy looks strong and stronger, been very resilient.
20:16But if you ask me about the geopolitics, I think we're worse than last year and better than next year.
20:24And is there any particular geopolitical issue that troubles you the most in all these conflicts taking place?
20:31Where is – we haven't resolved Ukraine.
20:33We don't know what will happen next with Iran.
20:37There are these fears of influence that the world is being divided.
20:40Is there any particular conflict that you hope in 2026 will be resolved or at DeVos we'll see an actual breakthrough?
20:47Because Greenland is another new frontier that's been opened.
20:50I think after almost four years, I think the Ukraine war possibly could end this year.
20:59I'm not saying it will, but I think if there's willingness, one can find a solution.
21:04I think the second steps on Gaza hopefully will be implemented.
21:09And we can see also that there will be then investments and start to rebuild the Gaza piece.
21:17I'm worried about Sudan.
21:19I'm worried about also the situation in a lot of developing countries that don't get that kind of attention
21:28because, you know, all the air is sucked out by some more media-friendly topics.
21:37Okay.
21:38Let's leave it there, Borgia, Brendan.
21:41I think you've given us a sense of a broad overview.
21:44And I'm glad that the World Economic Forum is tackling all these issues head-on,
21:49whether it's trade, artificial intelligence, or indeed the conflicts that are now dominating the world order,
21:55which is why this couldn't be a more important time for the World Economic Forum.
22:00And good to have a Norwegian as the head in a way because you, in a sense, hopefully,
22:06will bring the necessary balance to this very friction and faction-ridden world.
22:13Thank you for the trust.
22:14You know, I'm as Indian as I am European.
22:17Really?
22:18What does that mean?
22:18I don't know that.
22:19I think the strength of the World Economic Forum, of course I am biased,
22:23but it is that we are a truly impartial, independent platform.
22:27So we do have the Chinese and the Americans in the same room.
22:32We also have the Indians here with a very strong delegation.
22:39At the same time, we even have the Pakistani prime minister.
22:42So it's a unique platform where people meet, not necessarily agreeing,
22:49but at least we have the right people in the same room.
22:54Thank you very much for joining us.
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