- 10 minutes ago
The Opposition slammed the government over the India-US trade deal, alleging Prime Minister Narendra Modi "completely surrendered" to appease US President Donald Trump at the cost of our farmers.
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00:00Okay, let's first raise the unanswered questions.
00:04Which farm products from the U.S. will be allowed?
00:07That's not clear.
00:08Will India stop buying Russian oil?
00:11The Russians say they have received no communication
00:13that India will stop buying Russian oil
00:15as Donald Trump has claimed.
00:17India has also made no clarifications.
00:19Will India buy costlier U.S. and Venezuela oil and energy?
00:24No clarity on that as yet.
00:26Will the U.S. withdraw the 5% tariff
00:28that it had imposed in 2019 on countries like India?
00:34Probably, but we need complete certainty on that.
00:38Over how many years will India buy the 500 billion U.S. goods?
00:43Government sources are saying it will be over the next five years.
00:46But again, we await a formal clarification.
00:500% Indian tariff on certain U.S. goods?
00:54Possibly.
00:56But which are those goods?
00:57Still unclear.
00:58So there are still big questions to be raised
01:00and I want to raise now the big questions before our debate.
01:03Here on this program,
01:05you get the questions that other channels don't raise.
01:10Trump versus Modi.
01:11Who blinked?
01:13Win-win or one-sided deal?
01:16Can mercurial Trump be trusted?
01:19Indo-U.S. deal.
01:20Has Modi shown that it's the art of the possible
01:23and of patience?
01:25Joining me now, our special guest.
01:27Ambassador Atul Keshav is President,
01:29U.S.-India Business Council
01:31at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in Washington, D.C.
01:34Sayyad Akbaruddin,
01:35former permanent representative of India to the UN,
01:38one of our more distinguished diplomats.
01:39Lisa Curtis is Senior Fellow and Director of the Indo-Pacific Security Program
01:43at the Center for New American Security.
01:46We also hope to be joined by Nisha Biswal,
01:49partner of the Asia Group
01:50and a former Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia.
01:53I also have two guests who I recorded with earlier.
01:59Mr. Grossman is joining me.
02:02Derek Grossman, National Security and Indo-Pacific Analysis Professor
02:06at the University of Southern California.
02:08He joins me from Los Angeles and Dr. Mukesh Aagi,
02:13President and CEO of the U.S.-India Strategic Partnership Forum.
02:18Both of them are recorded earlier.
02:19Do keep that in mind.
02:20But I want to go to my live guests first.
02:22And I want to come to you, Sayyad Akbaruddin,
02:25because you've tracked India-U.S. relations, diplomacy.
02:29Should we see this, as the government says,
02:30as a win-win deal
02:32or await the details before we can celebrate?
02:36So, Rajdeep, first of all,
02:38let's acknowledge that this is not a classical trade deal
02:42or a classical trade agreement.
02:44It's a Trump-era tariff declaration.
02:48So, what happens in these sort of deals are
02:52the announcements come first.
02:54Public sentiment and markets move.
02:57The legal text comes later.
02:58And it's not new only with India.
03:01It's with other countries, too.
03:02So, if you want to have a comparison,
03:05maybe you could look at,
03:06in terms of a peace settlement,
03:09first there is a truce or a ceasefire,
03:11and then a settlement is worked out with the details.
03:14And that's where we are.
03:16We've moved into a truce.
03:18And now the settlement is being worked on.
03:20And as the Indian minister,
03:22Mr. Piyush Goyal mentioned,
03:24that the final details are being worked out.
03:27So, let's understand that
03:28this is where we are in the phase.
03:30No, but then how do we celebrate?
03:33With due regard, Mr. Akbaruddin,
03:34then how do we call it the daddy of all deals,
03:37celebrate, if you're saying that?
03:38Because in such deals,
03:40then the devil can lie in the details.
03:41We've seen what Donald Trump has done in the past
03:43with countries like South Korea.
03:46Sure.
03:46But let's look at what is not contested.
03:51That the tariff stack that we had,
03:54which was 50%,
03:55which was punitive in nature,
03:59that nobody is disputing,
04:00that is coming down to 18%.
04:02So, that's not an issue of debate.
04:0618% is a substantial reduction,
04:10not because it was lesser before,
04:13but because the world has changed.
04:15That world of 3% to 4% of tariff is gone.
04:18The new world,
04:19where Indian products are competitive at about 20%,
04:23we got 18%.
04:24So, that's the big achievement there,
04:27that today,
04:28what was six months earlier not possible,
04:31is now possible.
04:32And that's an achievement.
04:34But we also need to see it in broader terms, Rajdeep.
04:38Tariff amounts are one aspect.
04:41But the India-US relationship is not only about tariffs.
04:44It's about investment.
04:45It's about innovation.
04:46It opens up all these other factors.
04:50Finally, let's not forget the geopolitical significance of this deal.
04:55India's long-term central challenge lies with our northern neighbor.
05:01And we can't take on two big powers simultaneously.
05:06So, we have made peace with one,
05:09so that we can address the challenges of the other neighbor.
05:12So, geopolitically, economically, and politically,
05:17this is a big deal.
05:18It's only that we have to find out the details.
05:21But the broader trajectory is pretty well clear to all of us.
05:24I think that's very well put, Syed Akbaruddin.
05:28Ambassador Keshav, after a summer of turbulence,
05:30of an unsettled environment,
05:33where Donald Trump unilaterally decides
05:35that India will have 50% tariffs,
05:37including 25% penalty for buying Russian oil,
05:40do you believe that the announcements in itself
05:43signal the importance of this relationship?
05:46And therefore, it should be seen in that context,
05:48before we go into the nitty-gritty of the deal,
05:50that the fact that these two democracies
05:53have finally got their relationship
05:55at least on the right track,
05:57that what was haunting this relationship
05:59over the last six months
06:01was this tariff barriers that the U.S. had put up.
06:05At least those are slowly but surely being withdrawn.
06:08We now go back to 18%.
06:09And that's much better than many of our neighbors.
06:13Absolutely, Rajdeep.
06:15You know, I take a very long view of U.S.-India relations.
06:18And this deal agreement sends
06:20a very powerful psychological message.
06:23If you think about it,
06:24when negotiations happen between governments,
06:26virtually everything across the landscape
06:28of the bilateral relationship gets paused
06:31while those negotiations are taking place.
06:34Now, that's not to say that the important work
06:36of counterterrorism and law enforcement
06:37and national security didn't happen,
06:40but they do get subordinated to a negotiation process.
06:44When the two leaders announce
06:45that a deal has been struck,
06:46then it's almost like ending the pause button
06:50and hitting the play button
06:51on a wide variety of initiatives.
06:53So Minister Jai Shankar is in Washington today
06:55for a critical mineral summit tomorrow.
06:58That's very important.
06:59Our countries need to talk about the nuclear renaissance.
07:02We need to talk about the future
07:03of the energy economy of the world,
07:06semiconductors, quantum computing,
07:07AI, defense production.
07:10The list is endless,
07:11but this announcement sends
07:13a very powerful psychological message,
07:15not just across the two government landscapes,
07:18but across the business communities
07:19who are investing and trading in both directions
07:22and crave predictability.
07:24So I'm very happy about the psychological impact.
07:27I think you will see the delight in the details,
07:29not the devil in the details.
07:31At the end of the day,
07:32it is clear that both bureaucracies
07:34put in a lot of work.
07:36Ambassadors Gore and Quatra deserve a lot of credit
07:38for being the catalysts.
07:39Piyush Goyal, Jameson Greer.
07:41So many folks worked so hard
07:43to bring this to where it is.
07:45And I think what you've seen
07:46is a great deal of willingness
07:47by both bureaucracies to be flexible,
07:49to try new things,
07:51to advance the meta objective
07:52of $500 billion in trade
07:54and goods and services
07:55between the US and India.
07:57We're still woefully underpowered.
07:59And then to move on
08:00all of the other elements of our agenda.
08:03You know, there's a word
08:04that was just used,
08:05predictability, Lisa Curtis.
08:06How do you have predictability
08:08in a Trumpian world order?
08:10I mentioned South Korea.
08:11We've seen with other countries,
08:13Donald Trump arbitrarily
08:14can suddenly decide one day
08:16that he's going to impose
08:17fresh sanctions or tariffs.
08:19We're seeing it now with Iran.
08:20And that has put,
08:21you know, he wants countries
08:23that deal with Iran
08:24will have sanctions imposed on that.
08:25That compromises potentially.
08:27And I'll come later
08:28to Husayyad Akbaruddin on this.
08:29The Chabahar Port Project.
08:31Should we, though, treat,
08:33should we trust Donald Trump?
08:34When Donald Trump tweets
08:35in the manner that he does,
08:37unilaterally announces,
08:39for example,
08:39that India will stop
08:40buying Russian oil.
08:42Should we see Donald Trump
08:44as someone who's trustworthy,
08:46a trustworthy ally
08:47and a predictable ally?
08:51Well, certainly,
08:52President Trump
08:53is less than predictable.
08:56We've seen that on many fronts.
08:58But I think when it comes
08:59to the US-India trade negotiations,
09:02he was pretty consistent
09:05about wanting to see
09:06India stop importing Russian oil.
09:10This was a constant
09:11in what he talked about
09:13when he talked about
09:14the US-India trade negotiations.
09:17And the fact that he said,
09:19you know,
09:19he got agreement
09:20from Prime Minister Modi
09:21to halt Russian oil imports.
09:24I think that was a major part
09:28of why this deal was concluded.
09:30There was probably
09:30so many other factors
09:32that went into it.
09:33Perhaps it was
09:34seeing the conclusion
09:36of the India-EU
09:38free trade agreement
09:39last week
09:40that also put some pressure
09:42on the Trump administration
09:43to get this US-India trade deal
09:47across the line.
09:48But I think it is a win-win
09:51for both sides.
09:53It's a win for India
09:54because now we see
09:56the tariffs reduced.
09:58You know,
09:59these were some
10:00of the highest tariffs
10:01in the world
10:02that India faced,
10:0350% tariffs.
10:05You know,
10:06quite remarkable.
10:07And so now,
10:09seeing those come down
10:10to 18%,
10:11that will be a huge relief
10:13to Indian traders
10:14and exporters.
10:15And it's a win
10:16for the United States
10:18because,
10:18as I've said many times
10:20on this station,
10:23as well as many other outlets,
10:25that the US-India relationship
10:28is important
10:30for strategic reasons
10:32for the United States.
10:33And I think it was important
10:35for this deal to be closed
10:38so that the US
10:40could get back
10:41to the job
10:42of building Indian trust,
10:45trying to get that relationship
10:46back on track.
10:47It's not going to be easy,
10:49even though this is
10:50a significant step forward.
10:52And as Ambassador Keshap
10:54said in his remarks,
10:55it's an opportunity
10:56to start moving forward
10:58on all those areas
10:59that the US and India
11:01were cooperating,
11:02whether it's critical minerals,
11:04AI,
11:06pharmaceuticals,
11:07you name it.
11:08There are so many areas
11:09that there are opportunities
11:11for our two countries
11:12to move together.
11:13That work can,
11:14it's been continuing,
11:16but now it can
11:17start up in earnest.
11:19But I think that,
11:23you know,
11:24the point is
11:25this is not going to be easy.
11:26And also,
11:27let's not forget,
11:28it's not only the trade issue
11:29that caused the tensions
11:30in the relationship
11:31over the last 10 months.
11:33It's also about
11:34how the Trump administration
11:35handled the aftermath
11:36of the India-Pakistan conflict
11:39and the differences
11:40between the two sides
11:41on how that ceasefire came about.
11:45So I think,
11:46you know,
11:47we have taken
11:48a major step forward.
11:49But we're not out of the woods.
11:51There has been
11:52a stumble
11:54in the relationship.
11:56There's been
11:56some damage done
11:59to the trust levels.
12:00And that's not going
12:01to come back overnight.
12:03Okay,
12:04I'm going to,
12:05and I've heard
12:05all three of you,
12:06and I think
12:06all three of you believe
12:07this is a positive step forward
12:09in an uncertain,
12:11unpredictable world.
12:12It at least brings
12:13the relationship
12:14back on track.
12:15I think that would be
12:16a fair way to put it.
12:17Now,
12:18one of the few guests
12:20that I've spoken to today
12:21who actually has
12:22a different view
12:23is Derek Grossman.
12:24I spoke to the professor
12:25from the University
12:26of Southern California
12:27earlier,
12:28and I began
12:29by asking him,
12:30going through your tweets today,
12:32you're putting a few
12:33red flags
12:34on this Indo-U.S. trade deal.
12:36You seem to suggest
12:36that this is actually
12:38a win only
12:38for the United States
12:39based purely on
12:41what Donald Trump
12:41has said.
12:42Why don't you believe
12:43this is a win-win deal
12:44for both countries?
12:45Why go only by
12:46what Donald Trump
12:47has said?
12:49Thanks for having me,
12:50and I don't.
12:50I think that
12:51when you consider
12:53how before Trump,
12:56the tariffs
12:57on most Indian goods
13:01into the United States
13:02were at approximately
13:032% to 3%,
13:05and now,
13:06post the deal
13:08with Trump,
13:09you have
13:09an 18% tariff,
13:12reciprocal tariff,
13:14whereas most,
13:15you know,
13:15American goods
13:16are going to be getting in
13:17at a much lower rate
13:18to India.
13:19I can't really see
13:21how this is a good deal
13:22for India,
13:23and that,
13:25I think,
13:25is very unfortunate
13:26because what we've seen
13:28over the last
13:29two-plus decades
13:30is a coming around
13:32on both sides,
13:33right,
13:34to making
13:34the relationship
13:36better,
13:37and that,
13:38I think,
13:39is now kind of
13:40just muddling along.
13:43You know,
13:44when Modi visited
13:45the White House
13:46early last year
13:47and met with Trump,
13:50it seemed like
13:51the relationship
13:51was going to pick up
13:52right where it left off,
13:54and it did
13:55for maybe a couple of months,
13:56but as we all know,
13:58the summer of 2025
13:59was very bad
14:00for the U.S.-India
14:02strategic partnership.
14:03But that's precisely it.
14:05But that's precisely it.
14:06The summer of 2025
14:07suggested a lot
14:08of instability,
14:09discord,
14:09tariffs being raised
14:10unilaterally,
14:11including the penalties.
14:13Given the fact,
14:14surely the,
14:15given that fact,
14:16surely the,
14:17now the new reality
14:18that the countries
14:19have come to an agreement
14:20of 18% reciprocal tariffs
14:22should be a sign
14:23that they are moving
14:24in the right direction,
14:25Professor Grossman.
14:26Yeah, I think,
14:29I think in general,
14:31a deal is better
14:32than no deal, right?
14:33That means the two countries
14:34are getting along.
14:36I mean,
14:37the free trade agreement
14:38was in draft form
14:39for at least a year,
14:40probably longer
14:41than that,
14:43and there was,
14:43there was a lot of
14:44leadership politics
14:45at play,
14:46you know,
14:46will Modi
14:47call Trump
14:49in order to sign
14:50the deal?
14:50Will the,
14:52you know,
14:52some of the finer details
14:53of it be worked out
14:54on the Indian side
14:55rather than the American side,
14:58right?
14:58And so,
15:00yeah,
15:00it's nice to have a deal,
15:02no doubt.
15:03But I guess what I'm arguing
15:04is that the deal
15:06is unfair to India.
15:08And I think that India
15:10should have tried to get
15:12much better than 18%
15:14as a reciprocal tariff.
15:16I mean,
15:17when you look by comparison
15:18at some of the other countries
15:21in your own region,
15:23right,
15:23they are getting
15:24maybe a little higher
15:26than 18%,
15:27but not much higher,
15:29right?
15:29I think Pakistan
15:30in particular
15:30is at 19%,
15:32right?
15:33So to kind of put India
15:34in that same boat,
15:37I think the United States
15:38is doing India a disservice.
15:40You want to,
15:41you want to respond
15:42to that,
15:43Syed Akbaruddin?
15:44Is the US
15:45the sense that one gets
15:46America is calling
15:47the short Syed Akbaruddin
15:49is what Professor Grossman
15:51suggested there
15:52to me at the moment.
15:53How do you look at it?
15:55Do you believe that,
15:56look at the US
15:57Agriculture Secretary
15:58unilaterally putting out
16:00a tweet saying,
16:01we're now going to,
16:02this deal is a win-win
16:03for US farmers.
16:05Our trade deficit
16:06on agriculture
16:07with India is very high.
16:08It's going to come down lower.
16:10This has, of course,
16:11led to uncertainty.
16:12Will agriculture
16:12be opened up?
16:13If so,
16:14to what extent?
16:15Piyush Goel says,
16:16no, it's protected.
16:17These are the concerns.
16:19Do you believe
16:19that the Americans
16:20are trying to call the shots,
16:22put some kind of pressure
16:23on India
16:23as is being suggested
16:24particularly by
16:25opposition parties?
16:28So, Rajdeep,
16:29we need to understand
16:30that what this deal
16:32does is
16:33it buys India space.
16:35It buys India space
16:37to sell
16:38more
16:38than what it was doing
16:40recently,
16:41to invest more,
16:42get more investments
16:43and to negotiate
16:45from a steadier footing.
16:47Now,
16:47relief
16:48that it was
16:49previously
16:50less at
16:52two to three percent,
16:53that world is gone,
16:54Rajdeep.
16:54To be fair,
16:56it's now only
16:56comparative relief.
16:58So,
16:58if you look at it,
17:00between India
17:00and Pakistan,
17:01the
17:02tariffs
17:04were equal
17:05prior to
17:06the reciprocal
17:07tariffs.
17:08So,
17:08it's not
17:09worse than
17:10what it was before.
17:11And finally,
17:12I think we need
17:13to understand
17:14relief will never
17:15be permanent.
17:16Reversals will arrive.
17:17But,
17:18we need to be
17:19able to engage
17:21and this deal
17:21buys us the space
17:22to re-engage
17:23across the board
17:24and to try
17:25and steady
17:26the relationship
17:26in a manner
17:27that we can
17:28address challenges
17:29in the past.
17:30Now,
17:30you said that
17:31there could be
17:32a risk
17:33of
17:34President Trump
17:35changing his position.
17:37Yes,
17:37of course,
17:38there could be
17:39a risk.
17:39and that's
17:41how,
17:41but the risk
17:42is now lesser
17:43compared to
17:44what it was
17:45in the past.
17:46And all we can do
17:46is to look at
17:47the comparative
17:48equivalence,
17:49not some
17:50generic thing
17:52which was there
17:53in the past
17:54which doesn't
17:54exist.
17:55The US
17:55doesn't believe
17:56in the most
17:57favoured nation
17:58treatment to
17:58anybody now.
17:59So,
18:00we can't expect
18:01them to say,
18:02well,
18:02I want to go
18:03back to 2%
18:04or 3%.
18:04That's out.
18:05Having said
18:06that,
18:06I also want
18:07to address
18:07one other issue
18:08which was on
18:09the Russian
18:10oil that you
18:11raised
18:12in a generic
18:13manner.
18:14We need to
18:15understand
18:15that India
18:17was buying
18:18Russian oil
18:19not because
18:19of some
18:20ideological
18:21interest
18:22or some
18:23affinity
18:23with Russia.
18:25India was
18:26buying Russian
18:26oil because
18:27that was the
18:29best deal
18:29in a world
18:30where oil
18:31prices were
18:32fluctuating
18:33and the
18:34Russians
18:34were willing
18:35to give
18:35us at
18:35a lower
18:36price.
18:37Right.
18:37But now
18:39with these
18:40other tariffs,
18:41if you do
18:42a calculation
18:43of do we
18:44gain from
18:44Russian oil
18:45or do we
18:47lose in
18:47terms of
18:48tariffs,
18:48you will
18:49realise that
18:50we are
18:50perhaps losing
18:51more than
18:51we are
18:52gaining.
18:52So,
18:53it's a
18:53spreadsheet
18:54and arithmetic
18:55is the
18:56decisive factor
18:57here,
18:58not any
18:59political
18:59arm-twisting
19:00because arithmetic
19:02the cost
19:03to the
19:04economy of
19:05all this
19:06is what
19:06matters and
19:07I think
19:07we will
19:08be
19:09pragmatic
19:10enough to
19:11see if
19:12the economy
19:14is being
19:15effective
19:15adversely
19:16across the
19:17board,
19:17we need
19:18to shift
19:18like we
19:19shifted
19:19before.
19:20Okay.
19:21You used
19:22an important
19:23word that
19:23this deal
19:24gives us
19:24space.
19:25Presumably
19:25it gives
19:26us space,
19:26it gives
19:27us time
19:27to perhaps
19:28at least
19:29for now
19:30get this
19:31relationship
19:31back on
19:32track but
19:33there is
19:33one critical
19:34issue which
19:35is agriculture
19:35and that
19:36has been a
19:37red flag
19:37that India
19:38has drawn.
19:38I just
19:38want to play
19:39what Prime
19:39Minister Modi
19:40has said
19:40because the
19:40opposition
19:41has gone
19:41ahead and
19:42said the
19:42interests of
19:43India's
19:43farmers
19:44could be
19:46compromised.
19:47Listen to
19:47what the
19:47Prime
19:47Minister
19:48had said
19:48earlier and
19:48then I'll
19:49come to
19:49my guests
19:49again.
19:52For us,
19:54our
19:55farmers
19:56have
19:57come to
19:58come to
19:59come to
20:00come to
20:00come to
20:00the
20:02world.
20:02I'll
20:02know
20:03how to
20:04come to
20:04come to
20:05॥ारत अपने किसानों के पशुपालकों के और मच्वारे भाई बेहनों के हितों के साथ कभी भी समझोता नहीं करेगा
20:21और मैं जानता हूं व्यक्तिक अधरुप से मुझे बहुत बढ़ी कीमत चुकानी पड़ेगी लेकिन मैं इसके लिए तयार हूँ
20:36मेरे देश के किसानों के लिए मेरे देश के मच्वारों के लिए मेरे देश के पशुपालों के लिए आज भारत तयार है
20:48so the prime minister making it clear in an earlier speech that the interests of farmers
20:54will not be compromised but what the u.s agriculture secretary said has led to some
20:59confusion nisha biswal partner the asia group former assistant secretary of state for south
21:04and central asia with us also nisha your first comments on that do you believe that this is a
21:09win-win deal for both or as critics in this country are suggesting that particularly on
21:14agriculture there's still some element of uncertainty that america wants to use this deal
21:19to get greater access to india's markets well first of all i think the two are not mutually
21:26exclusive yes this is a win-win deal i think india needed to get those 25 energy tariffs off
21:33its back it needed to be in a more competitive space with vis-a-vis its peers and so moving to
21:40an 18 percent uh uh rate is i think uh critically important and you've seen the market sentiment in
21:47india reflect that um and and that's a and that's a good news story nonetheless uh there's a lot that
21:53we don't know we don't know what uh particular um um you know areas the tariff lines have been
22:00negotiated down to zero we don't know what that means in terms of market access for agriculture we
22:06know that this is an area of sensitivity for india it's also an area of great political priority for
22:13uh the united states and for uh the president so i imagine that if not in the current agreement
22:20that this will be a topic of further conversation um in subsequent negotiations because you know what
22:28we have between the u.s and india right now is not a comprehensive trade agreement um of the nature of
22:34what india and the eu uh concluded it is a phase one agreement that means that there are additional
22:40chapters yet to be negotiated and i imagine we'll see more negotiation on agriculture in the future to
22:46find some space some strategic space that might create opportunity for the u.s and still also um
22:53address some of the sensitivities for the indians dr uh uh atul kesha we want to respond to that
23:00as someone who heads a u.s india business council when i look at some of the statements coming from
23:05the u.s on agriculture the trade representative has said he has been quoted officially yes there are
23:10some agriculture areas that are protected now how does one define that does that mean that uh
23:16that's where you know as you said you believe that the devil doesn't lie in the details many fear
23:22that's where the devil could lie is that a misapprehension no i don't think so rajdeep i think
23:29that in fact the notion that this is one-sided is laughable you know nisha and lisa and i collectively
23:36spent decades negotiating with india on behalf of our government when we were in government service
23:42indian negotiators are tough they're smart they're prepared they bring coherent arguments and in the
23:48recent past we had begun begun to negotiate with india in a kind of a joint and collective approach
23:54toward things to solve problems that we both face and it is that sense of collective destiny that is
24:00really important and i think that the u.s and india have signaled through this agreement that not only
24:06are we going to make this an area of convergence but that this is the beginning of as nisha said many
24:12chapters to come of work that are strong domestic but there are strong domestic constituencies in both
24:18countries the americans who want to put uh their farmers first in india which needs to protect their
24:24farmers well look rajdeep negotiating in a democracy is always a challenging thing you can't negotiate in
24:32public you have to negotiate in private so the two governments have put in a serious amount of work
24:37there's been a year of talks i think the business communities of both countries are feeling very
24:42positive about what this deal could mean in terms of investments and trade to come and i think this
24:48is the beginning of a project of work that could take our countries to greater heights for both of
24:53us and so it is absolutely win-win because the negotiators are serious people and i think that we
24:59can find mutual accommodation in ways that are good for both of us i just don't think this is something
25:04you negotiate in public because in an open uh participatory democracy that becomes a very
25:10awkward way of doing things i also spoke earlier to dr mukesh aghi as i said we've got a variety of
25:16voices today he is of course with the u.s india strategic partnership its head uh and i asked him
25:21this these concerns over agriculture while the government of india dr aghi says they will not allow the
25:27interests of farmers to be compromised is that a niggling area or given the warmth that has been shown in
25:32their tweets at least by the two leaders do you believe all contentious issues are now overcome
25:39well uh one thing i can say is that the deal does not infringes on the red lines
25:47india had put on agriculture and also on dairy but there is some kind of understanding that for the
25:55ethanol we may be able to bring in some corn into the country or bring in some kind of cheeses which
26:03india does not produces but overall it protects the red line which india had painted to the u.s
26:09in negotiation right but but do you believe uh dr aghi that india can trust donald trump
26:15someone who's all warmth one moment then imposes 50 percent uh uh tariffs the trump the trust factor
26:23is that something that you believe that he's someone once he's signed on a deal will stick to it
26:31well you have to basically take what you have and run with it uh without doubting as to it will
26:41change we have seen some time changes happening but i think it's a time to celebrate we have a
26:47a tariff which is 18 percent as compared to china which is 34 percent or other asian nation so i think
26:55from that perspective i would say let's let's focus on see what else we need to do after the straight
27:01deal to bring in more u.s companies investment to bring in more job creation effort by uh exporters
27:08from india into the us you know lisa curtis there is one other key area why did trump agree at this
27:15moment do you believe you mentioned earlier pressure from the india eu deal the mother of
27:20all deals men was that the reason for the pressure the opposition here suggesting that donald trump has
27:26some leverage over prime minister uh modi even linking it to the adani case uh raul gandhi is linked it to
27:33that in the united states what do you believe has eventually led donald trump since he made the
27:38announcement first to finally say look i'm bringing india back to 18 what do you believe was the real
27:46turning point the trigger well i think we're going to have to wait and see what what comes out you know
27:52in the next 24 48 hours um to really understand that but i will note that a week or so ago um the
28:00treasury secretary scott besant mentioned that india had reduced its imports of russian oil they had
28:08the numbers in from uh the last month and and it did show that india had uh drastically reduced
28:16its imports of russian oil so that could have certainly had something to do with it um i come
28:21back to that point that this was a consistent point that president trump raised in relation to the trade
28:28negotiations and also modi he was very consistent about protecting indian farmers so it's not surprising
28:37that he has held the line on that issue and we don't have the details but i think by jameson
28:43greer coming out and saying well actually there are still going to be some tariffs on um in the
28:49agriculture sector tells us that uh primster modi probably did hold the line on those issues that are
28:57most important to indian farmers uh so i think what we have here is a true compromise both sides had to
29:03compromise something that is you know the art of the negotiation and how we you know have finally
29:10gotten to this trade deal but what you know finally convinced president trump i i think it's very
29:16difficult to say uh but i do think it probably had something to do with the numbers that came in
29:22last month about india's reduction of russian oil imports nisha biswal do you agree that india's
29:29reduction of russian oil uh dependence was the turning point trump president trump has also said
29:35india has agreed to buy oil from the us and venezuela i mean it almost seems as if donald trump
29:41appears to we have managed to dictate terms in that sense well i i do think that the reduction in russian
29:49imports played a significant role but i think it was probably a number of different things
29:53um one uh certainly the um the india eu deal did get attention in the united states we saw comments
30:02from secretary besant we saw comments from ambassador greer uh um on the india eu deal and and you know the
30:10fact that we had a very consequential uh deal that had been almost 98 percent you know uh concluded between the
30:20u.s and india but that was uh sitting on his desk so to speak uh perhaps did create a little bit of
30:27pressure and incentive for the u.s to get its own deal done um uh just to uh uh ensure that um u.s
30:37india trade was not disadvantaged as a u.s as a india eu trade um starts to pick up so i think that
30:44there's something to that but i also think that there is uh important areas of strategic convergence
30:51between the u.s and india that also had stalled to some effect uh because of some of these uh tensions in
31:01the trade uh relationship and and having a trade agreement in place and getting rid of some of those
31:08irritants also allows for greater cooperation and you see that with minister jaishankar in washington
31:15this week uh for the critical mineral summit there is a common challenge that the u.s and india face
31:22with chinese dominance in critical mineral supply chains and in some of these other strategic sectors
31:29and in order for the u.s and india to be able to work together to address some of those challenges
31:34perhaps we needed to get this uh irritant out of the way um on trade you know i i raised this
31:40question of russian oil also with uh derek grossman who i spoke to earlier that donald trump saying in
31:45that tweet uh derek that india will stop buying uh russian oil india has not said that officially
31:51the russians have said they've received no communication to that effect is this classic
31:55donald trump unilateralism at work to try and set the agenda so that he can claim some kind of a domestic
32:01political victory yeah no i i think that's right but i guess what i'm also arguing i agree with you
32:10right but i'm also arguing that at this particular moment right agreeing to 18 percent dropping it from
32:1950 to 18 percent is important but why was it at 50 to begin with shouldn't have been right and so india
32:27i think um you know kind of like what china did early on with the reciprocal tariffs china did not
32:35budge one inch right and i think china actually came out in better shape thereafter right i guess
32:42my point is standing up to someone like this who's bullying other countries granted he's the president
32:49of united states the president of my country uh it doesn't mean that you that you you know have to
32:55make a deal with a bully because frankly a lot of the deals that we've seen trump make
33:00they're handshake deals they're verbal agreements very little is usually written out and even if it
33:05is written out very very little seems to be adhered to um i'll give you an example just last week the
33:12south koreans woke up to trump saying i'm going to reimpose 25 percent reciprocal tariffs he had brought
33:18it down to 20 but now it's back to 25 overnight because he was angry at south korea so he's a
33:25mercurial president he's unpredictable he's transactional we all know that but giving in in
33:32any way to demands on reciprocal tariffs i think is ultimately going to cause more problems in the long
33:38run it may cause short-term benefits for any country not just india for any country involved may
33:44you may experience a short-term bump i mean i saw the indian stock market is is doing very well now
33:51as a result of the news of the deal but i can almost guarantee you that in the end trump will somehow
33:59change the nature of the deal somehow you want to get a final word on that say that in the short run
34:06yes win-win we've got the relationship on track in the long run where does this relationship go has this
34:13been a turning point will donald trump now realize that india is a important strategic partner donald trump
34:21has this strange habit of alienating allies and friends and actually cozying up to those who stand
34:27up to him whether it's a putin or china so rajdeep in the long run we are all dead that said uh as you yourself
34:38mentioned this deal buys us time it buys us space uh it doesn't buy us fully trust but that doesn't
34:46mean to say that trust is the only factor between uh relations uh between two nations there are other
34:54factors and turning that space into a convergence of interest is what we have to work on now so there is
35:04as much work now left uh to uh ensure that this deal turns into a win-win situation as it was to get
35:12to this deal so there's a long way ahead and i think um we will have to work towards it because
35:20we've had strategic convergence for 20 years uh one year of dissonance should not derail that and i think
35:28we need to keep that in mind that there are areas of strategic convergence between our two countries
35:34and they will prove to be resilient despite the difficulties that we've faced in the past and
35:40may continue to face in the future too i think that's a good positive note on which to end this
35:46conversation i really appreciate lisa curtis ambassador keshav nisha biswal and my guests who we recorded
35:53with earlier for joining me because we've got some very fine voices i value the fact that you've come
35:58and shared your experience we can only hope that when donald trump gets up tomorrow morning he remembers
36:05that he's brought india's tariffs down to 18 percent and doesn't do a somersault but for now after a
36:11turbulent summer in particular there is hope as 2026 takes us forward india and the us surely we have
36:20a shared partnership to benefit from in the future thank you all very much for joining us here uh on the
36:27the show today
36:37you
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