Iran's Popular Uprising and What Comes Next

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00:00What we're seeing in Iran right now is probably the biggest popular uprising

00:05against the Islamic Republic since the 1979 revolution.

00:10The protests this time are much more intense.

00:13These protests have huge significance both for the Islamic Republic as a regime,

00:19as a system of governance, but also in the region and in the wider world.

00:30Hundreds of people have been killed by security forces and riot police and plain-clothed

00:36paramilitaries who are armed. We've seen reports of security forces using rubber bullets and live

00:44rounds. These protests erupted on the 28th of December and the initial trigger was a sudden

00:52collapse in the country's currency, the real. Spending power has been decimated because of

00:59inflation, because of sanctions, because of chronic mismanagement of the economy.

01:05A lot of it is also because of corruption.

01:08When traders in the Grand Bazaar in Tehran openly show dissent, it's important because historically

01:16they've been associated heavily with the success of the Islamic revolution in 1979.

01:23There are a lot of people working in that part of the city whose livelihoods depend on imports.

01:30And if the currency is declining so dramatically in value, the cost to them of running their businesses

01:37just evaporates. Much of it, again, is tied to the government's ability to withstand the impact

01:45of sanctions. Sanctions means that Iran has a much harder time of selling its biggest single source

01:54of foreign exchange, which is oil. Iran produces about three million barrels a day of oil. That

01:59makes it the fourth biggest oil producer in OPEC, behind Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq.

02:05On top of that, it sits at the Strait of Hormuz, a vital choke point, not just for global oil supply,

02:10but in fact for global trade. That's the second threat to global oil production in just over two

02:15weeks of this year.

02:19The country's been dealing with double-digit inflation for a long time.

02:24Even bread is extremely expensive now in Iran. If you think about the fact that 10 years ago,

02:30a taxi ride from the main airport on the outskirts of Tehran to downtown Tehran was maybe the equivalent

02:36of 10 dollars. That's now the price of a single loaf of bread today.

02:43Since the revolution, there's been tension between younger parts of the population

02:48and the fact that the country's laws and constitution are based on a Shia Islamic interpretation

02:55of Sharia law. Reports show that young people are constantly pushing the boundaries of what they can do

03:03and what they can get away with. They want to engage with the world rather than to conform to what

03:09they see as deeply anachronistic and old-fashioned religious values that frankly alienate them.

03:20The key moves from here are going to be how the diplomatic path forward goes. We've already heard

03:24from President Trump that he may consider striking Iran again. And if that happens, we're likely to see

03:29another bout of geopolitical risk premium added to oil prices. The one thing to look out for next

03:35is any kind of news on talks between the US and Iran. We have to remember that the US and Iran haven't

03:44had formal diplomatic ties since 1979. So they always talk to each other through mediators and Oman has

03:52been that mediator on many occasions. The last time that there were talks between Iran and the US,

03:59through Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff, Israel attacked the Islamic Republic and triggered the 12-day war.

04:07And that's something that has so far meant that Iran has been reluctant to engage with the Americans.