00:00The news itself, this report, isn't so much of a surprise because it's not the first time, obviously, that we've heard this intention or ambition from Israel,
00:12particularly from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has voiced his concerns very vocally, we know, for at least 20 years now about Iran's nuclear program.
00:27So that's not new at all. I think in this case, we have to look at the details of this story.
00:33And one of the key things is that it's coming from U.S. intelligence.
00:39This is U.S. intelligence sources that aren't named telling CNN that we think there are suggestions that Israel may be planning an air strike on Iranian nuclear facilities.
00:49This in itself suggests that the U.S. may want to make a concerted effort to an extent to separate itself from what Israel wants to do.
01:03That's one way of looking at it.
01:05The other thing that we have to consider is the context that we have, which is crucial to this kind of story.
01:12And that's obviously the fact that Iran and the U.S. have for the first time in a few years started to engage in quite serious diplomatic talks over Iran's nuclear program.
01:25Those talks aren't obviously direct. They're being mediated at the moment by Oman.
01:30But when that started in April, that was seen as a huge step forward in those efforts between the two countries to kind of reduce this ongoing tension over Iran's nuclear program.
01:42So that context is key. So you have to look at whether this story is going to affect those talks and in what way if it's negatively seen to affect those talks.
01:56And we had comments from Ayatollah Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran, really throwing cold water on the idea that talks can succeed.
02:05Though, you know, immediately oil reacted and Brent turned up higher because obviously there's an expectation that if there isn't a deal, sanctions won't be lifted on Iran.
02:15And Iran's oil exports will continue to be targeted by the U.S. Treasury.
02:19So there's a lot going on in the background and all of it is crucial to how we interpret and look at this report.
02:25Is there a conclusion of maybe how the U.S. would respond to this specifically?
02:30Like, how would they maybe change their own discussions with Israel at the moment?
02:34I think that's a really important question because Israel is very isolated internationally because of the extent to which its bombardment of Gaza has obviously turned public opinion against Netanyahu to an extent,
02:54at least to an extent that we haven't seen before in the past, that does seem to have affected Israel's relationship with the U.S. so far.
03:02We saw the country pretty much sidelined from Trump's trip to the Middle East last week, which was a huge deal in terms of America's relationship with Gulf Arab countries.
03:13And so I think that's going to be crucial.
03:19And again, I think the fact that this is coming purportedly from U.S. intelligence, maybe maybe that is a sign that the U.S. wants to distance itself even further from any ambitions that Netanyahu has.
03:35Because we've seen that, you know, there is this debate going on in Israel politically, domestically over the relationship between Netanyahu's strategy in Gaza and his ambitions to stay in politics and to stay in power.
03:54And there's an angle that's related to that here as well with Iran.
04:00You know, is this maybe if it's true, if the Israelis, if Netanyahu is indeed planning this seriously with his military colleagues,
04:11is that an effort to shift the focus of conflict and war to a new theatre so that he can maintain his position?
04:23These are questions that people are going to be are going to be asking around this report, definitely in Tehran.
04:27I want to cite this as well in the context of what we've been hearing from from Donald Trump in terms of Iran as well,
04:32and also what we heard from the Iranian Supreme Leader as well about these talks, because it did.
04:38There did seem to be progress being made. Certainly, if we listen to what Donald Trump was saying on his tour of the Middle East,
04:43it did seem that those relationship, that relation was advancing towards something.
04:48Yes. Is that now on pause? How does that interact?
04:51This is another issue. I think since the beginning of the tour, or maybe since about two weeks ago,
04:56there's been mixed messaging, if you like, on what's been said and what's been achieved.
05:03Quite early on, I think after the first or second round of these talks,
05:08Steve Witkoff came out and said that Iran can enrich uranium, but to a very low level of purity of 3.67%.
05:17That's what Iran was already allowed to do under the previous nuclear deal that Donald Trump withdrew from in 2018.
05:23He then said, actually, they can't enrich any uranium at all, which was echoing what Marco Rubio, the US Secretary of State, was insisting.
05:31So they've changed their red lines in public, but Iran has suggested that the Americans are saying one thing publicly
05:42and then saying something else behind closed doors during negotiations.
05:46So I think there's, I'm not actually sure what it is, whether it's the Trump administration
05:59needing to give a certain impression publicly to voters, to diehard Republicans and Democrats
06:09who are very opposed to a nuclear deal or any kind of engagement with Iran,
06:13whether they need to keep that constituency happy or whether there is genuine,
06:20whether there is a genuine tension or disagreement within the Trump administration
06:27over where to draw its red lines with Iran in the nuclear deal
06:32and how much flexibility to show over uranium enrichment,
06:37because this uranium enrichment issue has become a major point of contention between the two sides.
06:43And that's what actually prompted Khamenei to come out yesterday and say,
06:47it is, to quote, outrageous for the Americans to make these demands of us.
06:53And does that prevent, in your eyes, the likelihood of further progress?
06:58Not necessarily, not necessarily, because immediately in that quote,
07:03Khamenei also says, I don't know what will happen.
07:06So that is his way of saying, not so coded way of saying, maybe it will happen.
07:13We don't know.
07:14But right now, he, it's his job almost to come out and inject this dose of negativity
07:24whenever he sees or he feels that the American side is pushing too hard on Iran.
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