00:00Lots at stake, as you know, Swift. What we need to keep in mind, really reading the tea leaves as
00:05she does so well. Great to have back with us. Bloomberg News, Middle East, geoeconomics lead Dina Esfandiari. She is
00:11with us from Geneva, Switzerland. Dina, it is always great to get some time with you. I know it's later
00:16where you are. What is your read on what's going on at the White House here and those headlines that
00:22Tim just laid out for you?
00:24First, thanks for having me. So I think really what Prime Minister Netanyahu will be trying to achieve with this
00:33meeting is first to really impress upon the Trump administration how critical this time is, how important it is that
00:42during the negotiations with the Iranians, President Trump really takes on board Israeli red lines.
00:49And there are several of them. One is to roll back Iran's nuclear program. And most importantly, I think, is
00:56to roll back Iran's missile program. And this is where the sticking point is likely to be.
01:02Well, the nuclear program, we saw what the U.S. did to that in 2025. What are the details that
01:10we need to know about the missile program and what the U.S. or what Israel wants Iran to roll
01:15back?
01:17Well, the missile program is critical to the Iranians. They developed it indigenously largely under waves of sanctions. So it's
01:27a source of pride. But most importantly, it's Iran's first line of defense.
01:33They really consider it critical to their deterrence capabilities, especially after Israel really attacked its partners in the region, its
01:43proxies that it was also using for defense.
01:45So for Iran, its missile arsenal is critical. It's quite advanced and it can reach most of the Middle East,
01:52which is why for Israel, it's a real concern.
01:55Yeah, totally get it. I mean, realistically, you have followed this this region, this area for a long time.
02:02And and I don't know whether it's conversations with you and with others that Iran is where so much of
02:08the terrorist activity, right?
02:09The various groups that threaten the region and threaten peace or stability.
02:15So what's the likelihood? What is the kind of agreement that Iran signs on to that would lead to greater
02:21peace and less terrorism in the region?
02:26Well, Iran has been pretty clear what its red lines are.
02:30It appears clearly willing to talk about its nuclear program.
02:34Not all aspects of it, but most of it.
02:37I think the Iran's ability to enrich uranium is a little bit of a sticking point.
02:41Right. But beyond that, it's been very clear that missiles should be off the table,
02:46that it won't talk about them because they're so important to Iranian defense.
02:50And finally, it's shown a little bit of openness to talk about the state of its relationship with some of
02:56its partners in the region,
02:58partners like Hezbollah, Hamas.
03:00These have always been critical, again, to Iranian defense, but I think they're considerably weakened.
03:06And so while they may not be on the table as such, Iran is never going to break off support
03:12to Hezbollah, for example.
03:13It may be willing to talk about aspects of the support, how it could roll some of it back,
03:20you know, take into consideration some of the U.S.'s interests in the region.
03:25Well, Dina, speaking of the U.S. in the region, we're getting some headlines from the Wall Street Journal.
03:29The U.S. plans to send second aircraft carrier to the Middle East.
03:34The Wall Street Journal cited three officials on aircraft carrier deployment plan.
03:37The president has not given official order to deploy the carrier.
03:41This all coming from the Wall Street Journal just moments ago.
03:44In terms of the buildup of the U.S. military presence in the region, what should we be prepared for?
03:52I mean, it's clear that what Trump is trying to do is really demonstrate to the Iranians that the threat
03:58of military strikes is a very credible one.
04:01And the U.S. and its allies are preparing for any kind of potential blowback from the Iranians.
04:08Having said that, the U.S. has more than enough capabilities present in the region to already conduct airstrikes on
04:16Iran.
04:16The additional capabilities that are being sent are really to improve its ability to defend its assets and its allies
04:26in the region and also give President Trump the option of having a much longer military campaign against Iran should
04:33he want one.
04:34President Trump certainly talks about Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, certainly in friendly terms, has for a long time.
04:43And yet there has been some pressure that he has also put on the Israeli prime minister.
04:48But is that friendship potentially problematic in figuring out a deal here?
04:55I think that the Israelis are a complicating factor for President Trump's plans.
05:01He's campaigned on being a president that wants to avoid wars, that doesn't want to get bogged down in the
05:07Middle East.
05:08But, you know, the U.S.'s relationship with Israel is part of why President Trump right now is trying to
05:16be so strong when he's facing the Iranians.
05:20It's also part of why he's sending so many military capabilities to the region to ensure that Israel is properly
05:26defended if the U.S. strikes Iran.
05:30So it's a complicated relationship, but it's absolutely not a relationship that's in doubt in any way.
05:37One last thing I want to ask you or we want to ask you about, you've got a column out,
05:41the $108 oil war.
05:43I mean, we've got I'm looking at crude right now, New York crude or West Texas, excuse me, at about
05:49just below $65 a barrel.
05:51But you write this column, can the Middle East crash the world economy?
05:55And you look at three broad paths for how Middle East shocks could play out.
06:00What's the most extreme case?
06:02What's the most likely case?
06:03Because something like this will certainly have global economic implications.
06:08Absolutely. So I'll start with the extreme case.
06:11The extreme case really is one in which President Trump strikes Iran hard.
06:16Iran sees this moment as existential.
06:18And so it retaliates hard.
06:21What does that look like?
06:22It looks like not only striking at Israel and U.S. assets in the region, but also at energy infrastructure
06:28throughout the region.
06:30It may also follow through on its threat of closing the Straits of Wormuz.
06:34And if it does that, then not only is oil production being hampered, but the export of oil is also
06:41going to be in trouble.
06:43And that's a scenario in which the price of oil may skyrocket.
06:46The more likely scenario is that this is going to be some kind of managed escalation where we are likely
06:54to see a short but temporary brief spike in oil prices.
07:00And then the market will adapt shortly after because the Iranians and the Americans will try to find an off
07:08-ramp.
07:08.
07:08.
07:08.
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