Mumbai Civic Battle: Sanjay Jha and Jayant Mainkar on Thackeray Unity and Congress-VBA Alliance

1 day ago

In this Special Report, India Today’s Maria Shakil discusses the shifting political landscape ahead of the BMC elections with senior journalist Jayant Mainkar and political analyst Sanjay Jha. The conversation highlights the significant development of Congress joining hands with Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) after deciding to go alone. Mainkar notes that the ‘Thackerays have come together’ to consolidate the Marathi vote, a move he attributes partly to the backlash against the alleged imposition of Hindi on Maharashtra. Sanjay Jha describes the Thackeray reunion as a ‘definite X factor’ but warns that the ‘subterranean is extremely turbulent’ despite surface-level alliances. The panel also debates the impact of the 35-36% Marathi-speaking demographic versus the immigrant vote bank in Mumbai.

Transcript

00:00We have senior journalist and political analyst Jayanth Mankar joining us.

00:04We also have Sanjay Jha, political analyst.

00:06Mr. Mankar, what really is happening in Mumbai, I would ask you,

00:11because interesting political alignments happening.

00:16I can't say it's very interesting, because 5th of July,

00:21when Devendra first tried to impose Hindi on Maharashtra,

00:26I would say that Hindi is not some anathema.

00:29Any Mumbaikar also, because Hollywood stars Mumbai.

00:34But when it was trusted, Ras Thakri at that particular point,

00:38and there was a call to which Urdhav responded.

00:43And for all, every Mumbaikar, it was felt that Thakris are going to come together.

00:50In coming together, by Thakris' legacy,

00:55we used to divide it between three factions after Shinde Sena was formed.

01:01It come together, and in a way, it gained the chances of Shinde Sena,

01:07as well as BGP also, to do that alliance.

01:10But Congress, which was not even ready to take Urdhav Thakri also, in 2019,

01:19even in 2019, Congress had some doubts in supporting Urdhav as a chief minister.

01:26This time, the Congress kept his put-down and said no to MMS.

01:33And Inuwe Urdhav, who actually became chief minister due to Congress and NCP,

01:39this time he preferred his estranged brother,

01:42who virtually for 20 years took on him,

01:46abused or used all sorts of work in the season against him.

01:49But this time he preferred just to maintain his rishma or his control over 75,000 crore body.

01:59And that's the thing that the Thakris have come together.

02:03Yes, but would you not say that, Sanjay Jha,

02:08that in this unification of Raj and Urdhav Thakri,

02:13the stakes have become far more high for them.

02:17Their individual performances were dismal in the last election.

02:22And if they come together and they fail to perform,

02:26and the BMC is lost,

02:29then what is their future?

02:31Maria, good evening to you and to my co-panelist on the program.

02:36In politics, there is something called as the horses for courses.

02:40You know, to compare the BMC to the Lok Sabha,

02:44the assembly will be rather, I would say, absurd.

02:48The issues become different.

02:50They are more localized.

02:52There are corporators.

02:53Here there is a more direct connection

02:56in terms of the actual material change in people's lives

02:59at the local level on issues that don't really come in the Lok Sabha,

03:04which is about national security, constitution, reservations, etc.

03:08So that's one big difference that we've got to keep in mind.

03:12Now, as far as Mumbai is concerned,

03:14now I've lived in Mumbai for over three decades now,

03:17and I can tell you that it is now a very complex demography

03:22because there is the local Maharashtrian population

03:25and there is a predominance of the immigrants

03:28who make Mumbai what it is.

03:30Now, in that environment,

03:32obviously, the key factor is who gets the core Marathi vote,

03:37which is probably more homogenous.

03:40And then, of course, there is the immigrant vote,

03:43which is split rather wide,

03:44although the BGP believes it has a head start.

03:47Now, I believe that the Thakere brothers coming together

03:50is a definite X factor of this election.

03:54Please remember that I know that Raj Thakere

03:57has not been a force in politics for a while,

04:01but the Thakere's were the all-formidable masters of Mumbai.

04:06Remember the movie Sarkar, etc.

04:09They were deemed to be a...

04:09No, but I would say that have the Shifsanics

04:12moved beyond Thakere's?

04:15I think there is a nostalgia with the Thakere family.

04:18Okay, there is nostalgia.

04:19Mr. Menkar, is there nostalgia

04:23or have the Thakere's, you know,

04:28failed to read the real sentiments

04:31and now the Shifsanics feel

04:33that it is Eknath Shinde who is the real,

04:37you know, legatee of Bala Saheb Thakere?

04:42First of all, your last sentence is not acceptable

04:45to any Amishivashenic,

04:47because he will say it's either of the Thakere's

04:52because you can say that

04:53the levitism of something like Gandhi's

04:57and Tawa and all that,

04:59that also prevails here.

05:00There is no difference only that

05:02the Congress be at the central level

05:06and Shivasina at Maharashtra or Mumbai level.

05:09So Shivasanic feels either of the Thakere's.

05:12There is a small group which is close to Raj

05:17and there is a big group which is close to Urdhau.

05:20Okay, I'll tell you about the demography,

05:22particularly language demography of Mumbai.

05:26Still, there are, according to election commission,

05:2935 to 36 percent voters are Marathi-speaking voters.

05:35There was an issue of immigration

05:38and in particularly from Baghdad,

05:40Raj Stakri has taken on Hindi language and all that.

05:44Demography says 23 percent are Hindi-speaking people

05:48and after that,

05:50third biggest language is Gujarati,

05:54you know, Maharashtra and Gujarat-Mumbai.

05:57And there was a Mumbai state before 1960

06:00and Mumbai was the capital of that.

06:04So Gujaratis have some love, emotions,

06:07emotional love you can say for Mumbai

06:09that may be penetrating from Modi's and Shahad.

06:12And so there are reports,

06:14as we all cover,

06:15that there are reports

06:16that some important offices are being shunted

06:19to Ahmedabad and Baroda

06:21and all that or bullet trains or everything,

06:23whatever it may be.

06:24But the third biggest language or group

06:27is Gujaratis.

06:28After that, of course, Muslims and everything.

06:31So still one must say

06:32that the real dominant group

06:35is Marathi-speaking.

06:37Marathi.

06:38What?

06:39Yeah.

06:40Okay, so the linguistic identity

06:42will play an important role

06:44in these elections.

06:46How should this meeting,

06:48meeting Sanjay Jha,

06:50of the Pawar family be seen?

06:54Well, I can tell you that,

06:56you know,

06:57the BJP broke both the Thakere family

07:00as well as the Pawar family.

07:02But as I say,

07:03and it's an old saying,

07:04it is so true,

07:05blood is thicker than water.

07:07And here,

07:08also don't forget,

07:09it's about existential future

07:11of the Pawar family as an NCP.

07:14So, you know,

07:15you will see a lot of these

07:16micro arrangements happening now,

07:18which tell you that everything

07:20on the surface appears hunky-dory.

07:22But let me assure you,

07:24Maria,

07:25the subterranean

07:25is extremely turbulent.

07:28One point that I do want to add,

07:30you know,

07:30Eknath Shinde's party

07:32may have won this symbol

07:33and all that kind of stuff.

07:35But the bottom line is this,

07:37if you ask any Shivsenik in Mumbai,

07:40the Thakere family,

07:41they are the OG of the Shivsenah.

07:45And in this election,

07:46which is why this election

07:47has been delayed for a long time,

07:49that distinction will come through

07:51very sharply.

07:52I don't think the Ajit Pawar

07:55or Eknath Shinde

07:55are going to have

07:57any real meaningful impact.

07:59They will be used to somehow

08:00cut the opposition

08:02wherever the BJP needs it

08:03or the other faction needs it.

08:05I see this is a battle

08:06between the BJP

08:08and Uddhav and Raj.

08:09The Congress, however,

08:12I think has done a good thing

08:13by going alone.

08:14It once was a fairly strong force.

08:17It has whittled down

08:18over the last 5-10 years for sure.

08:21But if the Congress

08:21can hold on to its 16%,

08:23that will be quite extraordinary.

08:26But I think it's going to see

08:27a migration of some of its

08:28traditional voters to Uddhav.

08:31I am seeing a lot of liberal people

08:33saying we are going to go with Uddhav.

08:35I'm going to say a lot of Muslims

08:36will also go with Uddhav.

08:37So people who are underestimating

08:40what Uddhav will do

08:40are getting it wrong.

08:42Bombay has liked,

08:43or rather Mumbai

08:43has liked Uddhav for a long time

08:45and his performance

08:46as a chief minister

08:47during the COVID pandemic

08:49was extraordinary.

08:50So I believe Uddhav and Raj

08:52definitely have an opportunity.

08:53Okay, I have just enough time

08:55for Jayant Mankar.

08:57Please, sir, go ahead.

08:5830 seconds.

08:59Yeah, my co-panalist

09:01has committed a minor error.

09:04Congress has joined

09:05with Prakash Ambedkar,

09:08Vanchit Bahujan Ghadi,

09:10which is very significant.

09:12And actually,

09:14the Congress's vote bank

09:16is Dalits and Muslims.

09:18What you said is correct.

09:19Actually,

09:20Shivasena votes

09:21are not,

09:23Congress is not getting,

09:25or they are not being

09:26transferred to Congress.

09:27But Congress's votes,

09:28Muslim and Dalits,

09:29they are getting transferred,

09:31they are getting transferred

09:31to Shivasena.

09:32And Congress realized

09:34that we are helping

09:35actually Shivasena

09:35to get elected in Lok Sabha,

09:37but we are not getting benefits

09:39because SELA votes

09:41are getting divided

09:41between BJP,

09:43Shinde and MNS.

09:44So they decided to go alone

09:46and this time

09:47they are being assisted.

09:49In a way,

09:49political move,

09:51good political move

09:53because with Prakash Ambedkar

09:55there,

09:55they will get additional

09:56Dalit votes

09:57and what my co-panalist said,

09:59I accept.

10:00Okay, let's see.

10:01Congress may do a bit well.

10:02Let's see.

10:03Will there be a surprise

10:04in these elections as well?

10:06We are prepared for surprises

10:07whenever it's BJP

10:09which is on the ticket

10:11and they are fighting it

10:12like there is no tomorrow

10:15for them.

10:15Thank you for joining us,

10:16Jayant Mankar

10:17and Sanjay Jha.

Mumbai Civic Battle: Sanjay Jha and Jayant Mainkar on Thackeray Unity and Congress-VBA Alliance

Category

Transcript

Be the first to comment

Recommended