00:00We have senior journalist and political analyst Jayanth Mankar joining us.
00:04We also have Sanjay Jha, political analyst.
00:06Mr. Mankar, what really is happening in Mumbai, I would ask you,
00:11because interesting political alignments happening.
00:16I can't say it's very interesting, because 5th of July,
00:21when Devendra first tried to impose Hindi on Maharashtra,
00:26I would say that Hindi is not some anathema.
00:29Any Mumbaikar also, because Hollywood stars Mumbai.
00:34But when it was trusted, Ras Thakri at that particular point,
00:38and there was a call to which Urdhav responded.
00:43And for all, every Mumbaikar, it was felt that Thakris are going to come together.
00:50In coming together, by Thakris' legacy,
00:55we used to divide it between three factions after Shinde Sena was formed.
01:01It come together, and in a way, it gained the chances of Shinde Sena,
01:07as well as BGP also, to do that alliance.
01:10But Congress, which was not even ready to take Urdhav Thakri also, in 2019,
01:19even in 2019, Congress had some doubts in supporting Urdhav as a chief minister.
01:26This time, the Congress kept his put-down and said no to MMS.
01:33And Inuwe Urdhav, who actually became chief minister due to Congress and NCP,
01:39this time he preferred his estranged brother,
01:42who virtually for 20 years took on him,
01:46abused or used all sorts of work in the season against him.
01:49But this time he preferred just to maintain his rishma or his control over 75,000 crore body.
01:59And that's the thing that the Thakris have come together.
02:03Yes, but would you not say that, Sanjay Jha,
02:08that in this unification of Raj and Urdhav Thakri,
02:13the stakes have become far more high for them.
02:17Their individual performances were dismal in the last election.
02:22And if they come together and they fail to perform,
02:26and the BMC is lost,
02:29then what is their future?
02:31Maria, good evening to you and to my co-panelist on the program.
02:36In politics, there is something called as the horses for courses.
02:40You know, to compare the BMC to the Lok Sabha,
02:44the assembly will be rather, I would say, absurd.
02:48The issues become different.
02:50They are more localized.
02:52There are corporators.
02:53Here there is a more direct connection
02:56in terms of the actual material change in people's lives
02:59at the local level on issues that don't really come in the Lok Sabha,
03:04which is about national security, constitution, reservations, etc.
03:08So that's one big difference that we've got to keep in mind.
03:12Now, as far as Mumbai is concerned,
03:14now I've lived in Mumbai for over three decades now,
03:17and I can tell you that it is now a very complex demography
03:22because there is the local Maharashtrian population
03:25and there is a predominance of the immigrants
03:28who make Mumbai what it is.
03:30Now, in that environment,
03:32obviously, the key factor is who gets the core Marathi vote,
03:37which is probably more homogenous.
03:40And then, of course, there is the immigrant vote,
03:43which is split rather wide,
03:44although the BGP believes it has a head start.
03:47Now, I believe that the Thakere brothers coming together
03:50is a definite X factor of this election.
03:54Please remember that I know that Raj Thakere
03:57has not been a force in politics for a while,
04:01but the Thakere's were the all-formidable masters of Mumbai.
04:06Remember the movie Sarkar, etc.
04:09They were deemed to be a...
04:09No, but I would say that have the Shifsanics
04:12moved beyond Thakere's?
04:15I think there is a nostalgia with the Thakere family.
04:18Okay, there is nostalgia.
04:19Mr. Menkar, is there nostalgia
04:23or have the Thakere's, you know,
04:28failed to read the real sentiments
04:31and now the Shifsanics feel
04:33that it is Eknath Shinde who is the real,
04:37you know, legatee of Bala Saheb Thakere?
04:42First of all, your last sentence is not acceptable
04:45to any Amishivashenic,
04:47because he will say it's either of the Thakere's
04:52because you can say that
04:53the levitism of something like Gandhi's
04:57and Tawa and all that,
04:59that also prevails here.
05:00There is no difference only that
05:02the Congress be at the central level
05:06and Shivasina at Maharashtra or Mumbai level.
05:09So Shivasanic feels either of the Thakere's.
05:12There is a small group which is close to Raj
05:17and there is a big group which is close to Urdhau.
05:20Okay, I'll tell you about the demography,
05:22particularly language demography of Mumbai.
05:26Still, there are, according to election commission,
05:2935 to 36 percent voters are Marathi-speaking voters.
05:35There was an issue of immigration
05:38and in particularly from Baghdad,
05:40Raj Stakri has taken on Hindi language and all that.
05:44Demography says 23 percent are Hindi-speaking people
05:48and after that,
05:50third biggest language is Gujarati,
05:54you know, Maharashtra and Gujarat-Mumbai.
05:57And there was a Mumbai state before 1960
06:00and Mumbai was the capital of that.
06:04So Gujaratis have some love, emotions,
06:07emotional love you can say for Mumbai
06:09that may be penetrating from Modi's and Shahad.
06:12And so there are reports,
06:14as we all cover,
06:15that there are reports
06:16that some important offices are being shunted
06:19to Ahmedabad and Baroda
06:21and all that or bullet trains or everything,
06:23whatever it may be.
06:24But the third biggest language or group
06:27is Gujaratis.
06:28After that, of course, Muslims and everything.
06:31So still one must say
06:32that the real dominant group
06:35is Marathi-speaking.
06:37Marathi.
06:38What?
06:39Yeah.
06:40Okay, so the linguistic identity
06:42will play an important role
06:44in these elections.
06:46How should this meeting,
06:48meeting Sanjay Jha,
06:50of the Pawar family be seen?
06:54Well, I can tell you that,
06:56you know,
06:57the BJP broke both the Thakere family
07:00as well as the Pawar family.
07:02But as I say,
07:03and it's an old saying,
07:04it is so true,
07:05blood is thicker than water.
07:07And here,
07:08also don't forget,
07:09it's about existential future
07:11of the Pawar family as an NCP.
07:14So, you know,
07:15you will see a lot of these
07:16micro arrangements happening now,
07:18which tell you that everything
07:20on the surface appears hunky-dory.
07:22But let me assure you,
07:24Maria,
07:25the subterranean
07:25is extremely turbulent.
07:28One point that I do want to add,
07:30you know,
07:30Eknath Shinde's party
07:32may have won this symbol
07:33and all that kind of stuff.
07:35But the bottom line is this,
07:37if you ask any Shivsenik in Mumbai,
07:40the Thakere family,
07:41they are the OG of the Shivsenah.
07:45And in this election,
07:46which is why this election
07:47has been delayed for a long time,
07:49that distinction will come through
07:51very sharply.
07:52I don't think the Ajit Pawar
07:55or Eknath Shinde
07:55are going to have
07:57any real meaningful impact.
07:59They will be used to somehow
08:00cut the opposition
08:02wherever the BJP needs it
08:03or the other faction needs it.
08:05I see this is a battle
08:06between the BJP
08:08and Uddhav and Raj.
08:09The Congress, however,
08:12I think has done a good thing
08:13by going alone.
08:14It once was a fairly strong force.
08:17It has whittled down
08:18over the last 5-10 years for sure.
08:21But if the Congress
08:21can hold on to its 16%,
08:23that will be quite extraordinary.
08:26But I think it's going to see
08:27a migration of some of its
08:28traditional voters to Uddhav.
08:31I am seeing a lot of liberal people
08:33saying we are going to go with Uddhav.
08:35I'm going to say a lot of Muslims
08:36will also go with Uddhav.
08:37So people who are underestimating
08:40what Uddhav will do
08:40are getting it wrong.
08:42Bombay has liked,
08:43or rather Mumbai
08:43has liked Uddhav for a long time
08:45and his performance
08:46as a chief minister
08:47during the COVID pandemic
08:49was extraordinary.
08:50So I believe Uddhav and Raj
08:52definitely have an opportunity.
08:53Okay, I have just enough time
08:55for Jayant Mankar.
08:57Please, sir, go ahead.
08:5830 seconds.
08:59Yeah, my co-panalist
09:01has committed a minor error.
09:04Congress has joined
09:05with Prakash Ambedkar,
09:08Vanchit Bahujan Ghadi,
09:10which is very significant.
09:12And actually,
09:14the Congress's vote bank
09:16is Dalits and Muslims.
09:18What you said is correct.
09:19Actually,
09:20Shivasena votes
09:21are not,
09:23Congress is not getting,
09:25or they are not being
09:26transferred to Congress.
09:27But Congress's votes,
09:28Muslim and Dalits,
09:29they are getting transferred,
09:31they are getting transferred
09:31to Shivasena.
09:32And Congress realized
09:34that we are helping
09:35actually Shivasena
09:35to get elected in Lok Sabha,
09:37but we are not getting benefits
09:39because SELA votes
09:41are getting divided
09:41between BJP,
09:43Shinde and MNS.
09:44So they decided to go alone
09:46and this time
09:47they are being assisted.
09:49In a way,
09:49political move,
09:51good political move
09:53because with Prakash Ambedkar
09:55there,
09:55they will get additional
09:56Dalit votes
09:57and what my co-panalist said,
09:59I accept.
10:00Okay, let's see.
10:01Congress may do a bit well.
10:02Let's see.
10:03Will there be a surprise
10:04in these elections as well?
10:06We are prepared for surprises
10:07whenever it's BJP
10:09which is on the ticket
10:11and they are fighting it
10:12like there is no tomorrow
10:15for them.
10:15Thank you for joining us,
10:16Jayant Mankar
10:17and Sanjay Jha.
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