On this India Today special report, the focus is on the upcoming Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections and the shifting political alliances in Maharashtra. Political analyst Sudhir Suryavanshi highlights the significance of the 'Mamu factor'—a consolidation of Muslim and Marathi voters—stating, 'the Mamu factor could really prevail, but will the Muslims vote for the Congress even knowing that they really doesn't '. The discussion features insights from Rajdeep Sardesai and Sahil Joshi on the 'triple engine' government's influence and the class divide in voter turnout. Experts examine whether the Uddhav Thackeray-led faction can retain its traditional Marathi base while attracting Muslim votes, or if the division of votes among parties like the AIMIM and NCP will benefit the BJP. The programme also explores the role of 'Gen Z' voters and the emotional connection of the Marathi electorate to the Thackeray legacy in a high-stakes battle for India's richest civic body.
00:00You know, one thing I think what we began with and what we are possibly ending in with the fag end of this conversation is
00:05the Mamu factor could really prevail.
00:08But will the Muslims vote for the Congress, even knowing that they really doesn't,
00:12the Congress doesn't have the might to defeat the BJP?
00:15Will they ally with the Shiv Sena?
00:17There are also parties like the AIMIM, which are hoping to represent their interests.
00:22And will they go with the AIMIM, a third party, where they think that maybe their interests are represented?
00:28Sudeer Suryawanchi, final comments.
00:31See, in this election also, you know, Thakre versus Sinday, there are 87 seats.
00:37While the Thakre versus BJP, there are 97 seats.
00:41As Sahil has rightly pointed out, last thing, BJP has made major dent in the Marathi oaths.
00:47But in 2017, I covered the election that day.
00:51I didn't find that much regionals among the Marathi oaths.
00:54And the Thakre were not able to touch the court.
00:57Uddhau Thakre got 84 seats in the BMC due to, you know, strong shakas and his corporate work and strong candidate.
01:07But this time, I am seeing the regionals among the Marathi oaths because of Thakre brother joining the hand.
01:14Whether that will really make the difference, that is the most important thing.
01:16Second important thing, you know, Muslim voters were consolidatedly voted to Marathi, Mr. Congress and Uddhau Thakre in Mumbai.
01:26But in local elections, these votes will get divided among the many multiple parties like MIM, NCP to NCP, then Congress, there is Vanchi Thakre, there is Uddhau Thakre is there.
01:38So whether this, you know, 18, 20 percent votes, where it will go, if it will get divided in the large number, I think then it is very tough for the Thakre to come back.
01:48OK. So, well, interesting, Rajdeep, because we've been talking about now two big issues that are emerging of all the factors that we discussed.
01:55And we discussed five big factors that could influence this election.
01:59Two biggest ones, the Mamu factor, the Muslim Marathi vote coming together and who it could impact.
02:04And number two, the class divide and the voter turnout are two most talked about factors.
02:11And Sahil, correct me if I'm wrong, you can come in, but Rajdeep, you've spoken, you know, right in the beginning about the Mamu factor.
02:17Want to reflect on the class and the voter turnout impact on the results?
02:25Look, I think what is one of the most interesting factors, Preeti, in BMC elections is that the more affluent areas hardly vote.
02:34The lowest voting percentages are those where the per capita income is the highest, the areas like Malabar Hill.
02:39Who goes and votes? The poor vote. That happens in most elections, but in BMC that gets even more accentuated.
02:45And that is where, as I said, local factors will matter.
02:49If I'm a Shaka Pramuk, a branch head of the Shiv Sena who's working closely with people in a chawl or a slum,
02:54I might have an advantage in an election like this.
02:57Let me also point out one more factor that perhaps I ignored earlier while you were asking me the five big factors, which is resources.
03:03The amount of money that some candidates have and their links with real estate is quite staggering.
03:10We've been given amounts of how much people are willing to pay for one vote that are quite shocking
03:15and just reveals the high stakes involved in an election like this.
03:19So maybe if you go to a poorer area and you're willing to distribute that kind of money to win votes,
03:26who knows what impact that can have on the final election results of Mumbai.
03:35Okay. All right. Okay. Shankar Rai, I think we've tried to get you back again.
03:39We can hardly hear you. We can't hear you, sir.
03:58We've tried three times over. This election, your vote at least on the channel is disqualified
04:03because we can't hear you. There's an issue there.
04:06Sahil, final comments.
04:07Well, I'll just put forward five points which I have just jot down, you know, after the whole conversation.
04:14The first and foremost, even if Devendra Fandavis is the one who will pull out votes for the BJP in Mumbai,
04:23despite that, the consolidation of the Marathi-speaking votes in Mumbai is going to be the key factor
04:29in the upcoming BMC elections.
04:32If the two brothers manage to snatch 70% of the chunk, 60-70% of the chunk of the Marathi-speaking voters,
04:39then they will have an age.
04:41The second factor, which is going to be the Hindutva, the original pitch of Balasahib Thakre.
04:46Now, the BJP is pushing forward to it.
04:48If the BJP manage to push it forward thoroughly, then they will retain those kind of votes, at least in Mumbai.
04:55The third factor, which I think is going to be the selling of the triple engine,
04:59which the BJP always tries to do in the state elections, the double-engined one.
05:05Here in Mumbai, you know, the triple engine, whether it works or not, that is something which is going to be important.
05:12The fourth factor is going to be the Muslim votes, which have been going to Shiv Sena, UBT since Lok Sabha and assembly elections.
05:19Now, this time, the Congress fighting against the Shiv Sena, UBT and MNF alliance.
05:24Whether the Congress pulls those Muslim votes towards them, that is going to be the last.
05:30And the last one is the vote percentage, which I had already mentioned.
05:32The vote percentage.
05:32Okay, five factors that Sahil pulled out.
05:34But, Yashwan Deshmukh, you want to come in?
05:36Because of the five factors that Sahil gave, and just to reflect on that,
05:40the counter of Hindutva, and if Uddhar Thakre is getting the Muslim votes,
05:45then he also stands to lose a fair amount of Hindutva votes.
05:49Well, on the entire debate on Hindutva and secular politics will be upside down after the results are out,
05:58simply because if the Thakre business wins, I mean, if Raj Thakre and Uddhar Thakre winning together,
06:04means a win for secularism, then it tells you the times we are living in pretty.
06:09All right.
06:09I mean, let's be honest about it.
06:14Totally.
06:15And I think somebody just needs to reflect back in political history to understand the context that Yashwan is trying to make.
06:21So, having said that, philosophically speaking, I would be very much looking at the fact that this contest might be very much bipolar in nature.
06:31And in the previous elections, we have seen almost 30 to 40 percent votes in Mumbai municipality going to others, independents, and smaller parties.
06:40That chunk is going to be shrinking further.
06:43If that happens, it might also give us an idea how the future of Indian politics is going to evolve in terms of one nation, one election,
06:53that bipolarization process that we have been looking at in many of these elections in the past that we have covered together,
06:59that, you know, the third parties or the independents or the smaller parties, their space is shrinking.
07:05Will Mumbai municipality election will be any different from that?
07:09That remains to be seen.
07:11Okay.
07:11So, Deer Suryavanshi, very short, sir.
07:13Final points.
07:15See, I just say two lines of fear factor.
07:18Among the Marathi voters, you know, if non-Thakre political party come in power in BMC, they will lose or the Marathi will lose the Mumbai.
07:28That is fear factor in Hongdae.
07:30And the continuation dominance of the non-Marathi will continue in Mumbai.
07:33That is first thing.
07:34Second thing, during the Balasab Thakre, there was an entire generation who was emotionally connected to him and his future.
07:41They love, they dance, they do everything on the Balasab Thakre's tour.
07:45But there are Genji voters, nobody has talked about it.
07:49To whom they are connected?
07:51I think Aditya Thakre and Amit Thakre are trying to connect these Genji voters.
07:56Because these are very, you know, aspirant class.
07:58These are very, you know, development-oriented class.
08:01If they want to see these two Thakre as a, bringing them as a, for the development.
08:06So, it's them.
08:07Okay.
08:07Jaint Minkar, very quick, very quick, sir.
08:10Quick interjection.
08:11Go ahead.
08:15Okay, we don't have Jaint Minkar.
08:16Do we?
08:16Jaint Minkar, you have one very quick intervention, sir.
08:18Yes, yes, yes.
08:19Yes, yes, yes.
08:20See, see, see, I mean, I agree that this unity of, among the Maharashtri and the Maharashtri speaking people, particularly these two brothers, is of course an important factor.
08:30But I agree that how to pull out the voters is most important.
08:34And in 2017, when there was a 55% voting, the voters turned out.
08:39If BJP succeeds in maintaining or increasing that, then they have some...
08:46Right.
08:46So, I think one thing, yeah, which is factor number five for Sahil, and it's something that we've looked at, which you're right, sir.
08:50If it is about 55%, that could be advantage BJP, anything lesser than that.
08:54Yes, yes.
08:55That could be disadvantage BJP or NDA rather.
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