- 14 hours ago
In this episode of To The Point, experts analyse the high-stakes Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, the first in eight years.
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00Welcome, you're watching To The Point, I'm Preeti Chaudhary, our count down to the BMC
00:14elections, who's going to rule the richest municipal corporation in India.
00:19Well, after eight years, the elections are finally taking place and we're going to break
00:23it down on what could be or what are the X factors that could govern the results of
00:29the BMC elections. But before we do that, allow me to take you through the headlines.
00:39Larger NDA rises in Tamil Nadu. EPS hints at new party joining AIDMK alliance. Amid speculation
00:45over AIDMK, would you tie up? EPS claims open to alliance with TVK.
00:59Round two of Vijay's CBI grilling. Next week, actor and TVK chief Vijay is summoned again
01:04by CBI on January 19th in Karoor's stampede case. He was questioned for six hours on January 12th.
01:11After raging controversy over Vijay's Jananayagan, complaint filed with Karnataka women's panel
01:23on Yash's toxic, over-alleged anti-women scenes in film's teaser. Meanwhile, Congress seats back
01:29on Tamil film, Parash Sakti for distortion of facts.
01:34Mega controversy erupts after BJP host Chinese Communist Party delegation at BJP headquarters.
01:44Eyebrows raised over BJP's China outreach. Congress goes all guns blazing.
01:53Major relief for gig workers. Labor Minister Mandwea reaches out to e-commerce platforms
02:00such as Blinket, Zepto, Zomato, asking them to drop the promise of 10-minute delivery.
02:16Alright, the most watched-at civic poll elections will be taking place where Mumbai is concerned,
02:24not just India's financial capital, but also home to the country's richest civic body.
02:29and a political prize every party wants to control, and it's coming, this election,
02:34after eight long years. As campaigning for the Brihan-Mumbai Municipal Cooperation draws to a close,
02:41this election is shaping out to be far more than a civic contest.
02:45India's richest civic body, India's financial capital, and a political prize where alliances,
02:59identity, and turnout will decide who governs Mumbai. As parties make the final pitch for the Brihan-Mumbai Municipal Cooperation,
03:08five key factors are set to shape the verdict.
03:13Factor 1. Voter turnout and class-wise participation
03:16Historically, BMC elections see lower voter turnout, a pattern that has favoured Marathi-Sena carders,
03:25backed by deep booth-level mobilisation. But a turnout spike could redraw the map.
03:29Higher participation among upper-class and non-Marathi voters, who have leaned towards the BGP since 2014,
03:35could bolster the BGP-Shinde-Sena alliance.
03:38Factor 2. Consolidation vs. Fragmentation of Marathi Votes
03:44The battle for Mumbai runs through 144 Marathi-dominated vorts.
03:48In 2017, a united shift-Sena swept through these seats.
03:52This time, the spotlight is on whether Uddhav Thakre and Raj Thakre can consolidate the Marathi vote once again.
04:12The pitch is ideology over opportunism. But any split in the Marathi vote will directly advantage the BGP.
04:18Factor 3. Hindutva Narrative and Identity Politics
04:23The BJP is sharpening its Hindutva narrative, questioning Uddhav Thakre's perceived closeness to minority voters.
04:30I also say that the true truth is, the counter is cultural assertion without exclusion.
04:45Whether this reassures Marathi-Hindu voters or deepens identity polarization, could prove to be decisive.
04:54Factor 4. Governance, alliances and a triple-engine pitch
04:58For the BJP, the argument is power-backed by performance.
05:03The promise is political stability through alliances and a triple-engine government for faster development.
05:18On the ground, the Shinde Sena is pitching delivery over legacy.
05:22Factor 5. Minority and Opposition Vote Dynamics
05:34Roads, infrastructure and civic services form a governance-first appeal aimed at urban voters cutting across communities.
05:43Factor 5. Minority and Opposition Vote Dynamics
05:46Minority voting patterns remain a critical variable.
05:50While the Shinde Sena UBD has traditionally enjoyed strong Muslim support,
05:54Congress contesting separately and a possible Congress VBA understanding could fragment their anti-BGP vote,
06:00especially in tight ward-level contests.
06:04Five Factors, Multiple Fault Lines
06:07And Mumbai at the centre of it all.
06:10Because in the BMC battle, it's not just about who wins,
06:13it's about who controls India's financial nerve centre.
06:17Bureau Report, India Today.
06:23Alright, so India's top, India Today's top political editors,
06:26as well as our crack team in our Mumbai Bureau have come together to come up with five X factors
06:32that could govern the outcome of the richest civic municipality where India is concerned.
06:40We have our guests with us to analyse these factors.
06:42Joining me this evening, Sahil Joshi, Senior Managing Editor and Head of West Bureau, Mumbai Tuck.
06:47Shankar Raya, Political Economist, Author, Columnist.
06:50Yashwan Deshmukh, Founder, SeaVoter.
06:51We'll also be giving out some of the findings of our SeaVoter Snap poll.
06:56which we conducted at the back of the BMC elections.
07:00Sudhir Suryawanshi, Senior Editor, New Indian Express.
07:03Jayanth Menkar, Political Analyst, Senior Journalist.
07:06And our Consulting Editor with us, Rajdeep Sardasai.
07:09Rajdeep, before we break into each factor,
07:11what are your five factors that could have a huge bearing on the outcome of the BMC elections?
07:19Well, thanks very much, Preeti.
07:21Look, if you ask me five factors,
07:24let's first make it clear that the big factor, according to me,
07:28is just how hyper-local will this corporation election be?
07:34Remember, the average size of a ward in a Mumbai corporation election is about 50,000.
07:39So even 15,000, 18,000 votes can be enough to win an election in a multi-cornered fight.
07:46So it is the localization of elections versus the attempt to make this about a national narrative
07:55that I think is important and I think will prove important in the final stretch
08:01because corporators who have that kind of hold on the local level
08:06might just have an advantage over those who push a more national narrative.
08:11Number two, I think, is the demographic shifts taking place in Mumbai.
08:16Remember, the Marathi-speaking population in Mumbai,
08:20by all indications, is somewhere around 32-34%.
08:23It used to be well over 45, almost 50% 50 years ago.
08:28Now, that's a big difference that's taken place.
08:31And as a result of this, I think that influences electoral outcomes.
08:36The general belief is that the so-called outsider North Indian vote tends to go today with the BJP
08:43while the Maharashtrian vote largely rests with the Shiv Sena.
08:47Which brings me to factor number three.
08:49Will that Marathi-Manus vote be actually consolidated behind the Shiv Sena
08:54or with the Shiv Sena now so divided, will we see a splintering of that Marathi-Manus vote?
09:00Remember, there are about 130 to 140 constituencies
09:04where Maharashtrians make the key difference
09:06and it will have to be seen to what extent does that Marathi vote get splintered.
09:13Number four is the Fadnavis factor, as I call it.
09:17I think Devendra Fadnavis has made this election very much about himself and his persona
09:22and his claim to be a Vikas Purush for Mumbai.
09:25You haven't seen the likes of Amit Shah, Narendra Modi come and campaign in this election.
09:31So, it's been fought by local leaders and by Mr. Fadnavis.
09:35And it will be interesting to see whether Mr. Fadnavis is able to cut across the caste,
09:43community, linguistic barriers in a city like Mumbai.
09:47Number five is interestingly what some refer to the Mamu factor, Marathi plus Muslim.
09:54This enabled the Shiv Sena, UBT and the Congress which was then its ally in the Lok Sabha last year
10:00to win four out of the six 2024 Lok Sabha elections of Mumbai.
10:06In the Vidhan Sabha, the tables were turned, it became a much closer fight.
10:10So, will this Mamu factor, Maharashtrians 33-34 percent, Muslims around 18-19 percent,
10:16will there be a consolidation of that vote or will we see a divided opposition vote
10:21now that the Congress also is fighting on its own and will that come to the advantage
10:26of the BJP-led alliance.
10:29So, these are some of the factors I would say will be critical come voting day.
10:35All right.
10:36So, those are Rajdeep Sabha's five factors.
10:38We are going to also cut across to Sahil Joshi.
10:39But what I'm going to do is just, you know, take a minute and reflect on the numbers
10:43that were recorded in the last elections.
10:45The last BMC elections, viewers, took place eight years ago in 2017 and this is how it
10:50panned out in terms of wards.
10:53So, where it comes down to who had the advantage, well, the numbers right on your television screen.
10:59This was the vote share where 2017 BMC election was concerned.
11:05The Shiv Sena was a united front at that point of time.
11:07So, there is a lot which has changed since then.
11:10A lot of water has flown down the Mithi.
11:12The BJP was at a 27% and the Congress at a 16%.
11:16And mind you, Shiv Sena's 28% had both Eknat Shinde and the UBT undivided Shiv Sena.
11:22Those were the numbers there.
11:23Let's look at the wardshare on what were the numbers then.
11:27Let's bring those numbers out in terms of, you know, as the best bus goes by.
11:33The 2017 BMC.
11:35All right.
11:36We still have the wardshare numbers going on, which is NCP at 5%.
11:39Let's get the wardshare numbers, total 227 wards across the Mumbai municipality.
11:47And you have Shiv Sena, undivided Shiv Sena, mind you, take that with a pinch of salt, 84.
11:52So, BJP 82 and BJP was all alone.
11:55Congress 31.
11:56So, if you look at numerically Sahil, and I want to bring in our senior managing editor on this.
12:01Just going at the back of what the numbers were in 2017, eight years ago, an undivided Shiv Sena was just minutely ahead of the BJP.
12:11And now, a big faction of that Shiv Sena stands with the BJP.
12:16So, precedent would demand that advantage NDA.
12:19Well, as, you know, even yesterday we had the discussion and, you know, my whole point was the same.
12:29The numbers clearly show, I mean, at least the mathematics or you call it or the algorithm, what we call it.
12:36It clearly shows the advantage the BJP and Ikna Chinde's Shiv Sena.
12:41Because 144 Marathi-dominated seats, Marathi voter-dominated seats, 79 won by Shiv Sena, undivided Shiv Sena in 2017 elections.
12:51But despite that, why the numbers of the BJP increased in 2017?
12:57The jump in the BJP's numbers were because the BJP managed to win 44 seats in the Marathi-dominated population.
13:05And there the BJP made a dent.
13:08The BJP went to the affluent Marathi class.
13:12BJP went to aspirational Marathi class.
13:15The BJP, Devendra Fadnavis, promised them the development in Mumbai.
13:21Devendra Fadnavis gave them a development model.
13:25And that is how that shift happened.
13:27But now what has happened is that the core Marathi voter, which used to, which has been voting for Shiv Sena for years together,
13:35especially the lower-middle class, the middle-class Marathi voter,
13:40who was splitting because Ikna Chinde has split away from Uddhav Thakre.
13:45Because the Raj Thakre has now come with Uddhav Thakre and they have formed this alliance,
13:50the whole pitch by both the brothers that, you know, look, if you do not vote for us,
13:56your political patronage in this city is going to vanish.
14:00Your political influence, the Marathi political influence over the city of Mumbai is going to vanish
14:05because Thakre will not be in power or in an influential position within the BMC, the Mumbai Municipal Corporation.
14:11Whether that pitch works and that consolidation happens, whether they, both of them coming together,
14:17able to take away the majority of 70% chunk out of the Marathi voters, that is going to be the key.
14:23And also the point which Rajdeep was trying to add.
14:26Yeah.
14:27Okay.
14:27I'm going to come right back to you.
14:28I want to bring in Yashwan because we've spoken so much about the domination of the Marathi vote,
14:34especially vis-a-vis on what happened the last time around the BJP taking a fair chunk of that.
14:38But Yashwan Deshmukh, to pull you in on this, and we'll ask our producers back in
14:43to put out the graphics on the political stock exchange, the numbers that we had last night,
14:47which was a snap poll conducted by India Today and Sea Voter,
14:51and that one question that was asked on who is the true inheritor of brand Thakre.
14:56And it did seem to suggest those numbers, and let's play those numbers out
14:59from the political stock exchange last night in favor of the Thakre brothers,
15:05because if, let's play those numbers out.
15:06Can we get those numbers?
15:08All right.
15:08The question that was put forth, who is the rightful inheritor of the Thakre brand?
15:13Yashwan Deshmukh, if you actually add up both Uddhav Thakre and Raj Thakre,
15:17it's advantage Thakre is where the Marathi vote is concerned.
15:20But having said that, a larger question beckons.
15:23The inheritors of brand Thakre, as per the voters of Mumbai, seem to be the Thakre brothers,
15:30but the brand in itself has been diluted over time.
15:34Does it have the same kind of influence?
15:36Not quite.
15:36Well, yeah, I mean, and actually, this makes sense when you just revisit what Sahil just mentioned,
15:45that, you know, last time the performance of Devin Farnavish in the civic polls
15:50was not because BJP managed to win all the Gujarati-dominated seats or Hindi-dominated seats,
15:56but the 82 seats came in because they managed to win 40-plus seats in the Marathi areas.
16:02And I have a very short two points to make here, Preeti.
16:05Number one, let's not forget the fact, forget Mumbai.
16:10Let's talk about Marathi-Marathi-Maharashtra that is outside Maharashtra.
16:14Since 2015 assembly election, BJP is the biggest party in the Marathi-Marathi-Maharashtra
16:22in terms of votes and in terms of seats for the last almost 11 years.
16:27That's a fact.
16:28So, somehow, when we try to overemphasize the Marathi-Maharashtra equation,
16:33we are almost kind of thinking as if Marathi voters do not vote for BJP.
16:39That's a wrong premise to start with.
16:42BJP is the biggest party of the Marathi voters for the last 11 years.
16:47That's a fact.
16:48Let's deal with that.
16:50Okay, number one.
16:51Number two, in which we just are not talking about the anti-incumbency.
16:57Please remember, even with the 84 seats for the first time,
17:00BJP actually gave outside support to Shiv Sena.
17:04They were not part of the PNC administration along with...
17:08So, what has happened in the last few years,
17:10that the incumbency or the anger of things not getting done,
17:14which was equally shared by the BJP and the Shiv Sena together when they were in power,
17:20in the last term around,
17:22the sheer failure and the thing and the anger against of not things getting done
17:26has to be with Shiv Sena alone.
17:28So, that is an important factor.
17:31So, going by that parameter, yes,
17:33the poll shows Marathi sentiment is still largely with the Thakres, no doubt.
17:39But it is not a one-way traffic.
17:41It is not at all a one-way traffic.
17:43And it's not just about if Shinde has a major share or Uddav Thakre has a major share.
17:50I think the 400-pound gorilla in the room,
17:53which people are not talking about in the Marathi leadership,
17:57is Debed Parnavis.
17:58He has single-handedly made himself as one of the most critical Marathi leader,
18:03after, I guess, and Razdeep can correct me,
18:08but I don't think that after Sharad Pawar,
18:11any other Marathi leader has created that kind of a domain for himself
18:16in Marathi politics or in Maharashtra politics,
18:19that he is either a king or a kingmaker.
18:22After Sharad Pawar, that kind of turf has been prepared only by Debed Parnavis.
18:26So, we have to be careful, you know,
18:29while, you know, dealing with the Marathi equation
18:31and keeping Debed Parnavis out of that.
18:34All right, Shankar Raya, do you concur?
18:36Because at one time, you know, one point of time,
18:37we have so much of conversation around the Thakre brothers coming in together,
18:42getting in the Marathi vote, how much will they get,
18:44and what if the Muslim vote combines with them?
18:46But the demography of Mumbai has changed over decades now.
18:50The Thakre brothers might be the inheritors of the brand Thakre,
18:53as per, at least, with our snap poll seems to suggest.
18:56But our snap poll also suggests that most think
18:58that brand Thakre is not that relevant anymore.
19:01Well, if brand Thakre was all that relative to the voting pattern
19:08or influence over voters,
19:10then we would have seen it in the 2024 Lok Sabah Islands
19:13and in assembly elections.
19:16Having said that,
19:17I sort of issue a caveat for Yashwan
19:21that we should not celebrate the day before we reach the evening.
19:26So, Mr. Parnavis is definitely a rising sun,
19:32definitely a leader of Arashtra,
19:37and that has got much more to do with the way he looks at development
19:42rather than certainly identity politics.
19:46And it's been a long way.
19:49I think we should hold our hearts
19:51because that same person is not delivered in the looks of Arashtra.
19:56Shankar Raya, there's a problem with your audio.
19:57Would you, we're going to try and correct that,
19:59you know, and come back to you
20:01because Shankar Raya seems to suggest
20:02we still have to wait before we give that pedestal
20:05to Mr. Devendra Fadnavis
20:07of being the second most prominent Marathi leader
20:09post-Sharad Pabar.
20:10But we're going to correct.
20:11Can we correct Shankar Raya's audio and go back to him?
20:13But Jayad Menkar,
20:14what do you think are the top five big factors,
20:16at least the ones we've put out where it comes down?
20:18You know, a lot also will be,
20:20like Sahil and Rajdeep suggested,
20:23voter turnout,
20:23it will come down to the class divide
20:25where Mumbai is concerned.
20:26Well, I said that the Mamu factor,
20:29I mean, Marathi-Muslim combined,
20:31will it be because Shindai's faction has left
20:33and is there any gap?
20:35So the point is this,
20:36while we are saying there will be,
20:37there was a Mamu factor,
20:38even in Lok Sabha elections,
20:40which gave four seats to Shiva Sina.
20:43But simultaneously,
20:457% votes of MMS are also coming to Shiva Sina.
20:50So that is why,
20:52I mean, the gap,
20:53as the Shindai Sina has left,
20:55it will not be that wide.
20:57And then secondly,
20:58particularly from 5th of July,
21:00till the day before yesterday's rally,
21:02all these two days,
21:03thus I will mention,
21:05that whether one will say,
21:06not only Marathi Manus,
21:08or Devendra Padnavis has also reached Marathi Manus,
21:11whatever,
21:12but particularly the foreseeable Hindi,
21:14that particular thing on 5th of July,
21:16the unity among two brothers,
21:20I mean,
21:20which the Shiva Sinais were waiting for 20 years,
21:24that particular incident,
21:26and after coming together,
21:28this will be the first election,
21:30so it's an,
21:31and I accept that it's a do or die situation
21:33for the political career of both Uddhau and Raj,
21:37but particularly I find,
21:40this thing of Hindi,
21:42that Hindi should be the language,
21:44the forcing Hindi language on 5th of July,
21:47and then,
21:48and then yesterday before yesterday's rally,
21:50has put Thakre brothers one step ahead,
21:53and though Congress has not joined hands with them,
21:57I feel whatever that happens,
21:59whatever that happens,
22:00but Congress will support definitely,
22:03to Thakre brothers only,
22:04when the time comes.
22:06But Jant Mankar,
22:06you say one step ahead,
22:08but is that step enough,
22:09to draw a one step ahead,
22:11in BMC elections?
22:13Yes.
22:13Is it enough?
22:14Yes.
22:14Do they have the stamina,
22:15to carry it through?
22:16You're saying they do?
22:18Yes,
22:18yes,
22:19yes,
22:19yes.
22:20Because,
22:21I find that,
22:22that Thakre brothers,
22:23are really one step ahead,
22:24particularly after,
22:25day before yesterday's rally.
22:27Okay.
22:27You're saying the last couple of days,
22:29have been crucial,
22:30to the rise of the Thakres,
22:31especially by the Marathi vote bank,
22:32is concerned,
22:33important point that you make.
22:34Sudeer Suryawanshi,
22:35do you concur?
22:36Rajdeep and Sahil will come back to you,
22:38allow Sudeer Suryawanshi,
22:39to come up with this intervention.
22:41See,
22:42if you see,
22:43BGP,
22:44and the Wandao Takar Association,
22:46and MNS on paper,
22:48definitely,
22:48BGP is more stronger,
22:51structurally,
22:51BGP is more stronger,
22:53a resource pool,
22:54BGP is more stronger,
22:56in its strength wise.
22:57But,
22:58if you see,
22:58BGP,
23:00in the context of,
23:012017 election,
23:03that time,
23:04you know,
23:04Devendra Fadnavis was,
23:06became a,
23:06chief minister of Maharashtra,
23:08Ashish Shailar,
23:09was the Mumbai,
23:10BGP unit president.
23:11So,
23:12under their leadership,
23:13BGP had made,
23:14you know,
23:15big jump from the,
23:1635 to 82.
23:17Almost,
23:18there was only two seats,
23:19different between the,
23:20United Suryawanshi,
23:21and the BGP.
23:22That time,
23:23BGP was a very fresh,
23:24smarty,
23:25Devendra Fadnavis's face,
23:26was also very fresh,
23:27and promising.
23:29And everybody was,
23:30you know,
23:30as for,
23:30as the science said,
23:31aspirate class,
23:33affluent class,
23:34upper,
23:34you know,
23:35middle class,
23:36were saying something,
23:37that Fadnavis will deliver,
23:38something for the city,
23:40that was lacking.
23:41Because,
23:42I personally,
23:42you know,
23:43covered the BMC,
23:45for a long time.
23:46Okay.
23:46Initially,
23:47I used to see many Parsi faces,
23:49as a operator.
23:50In the meanwhile,
23:51there are Marathi,
23:52many Marathi faces,
23:53and the later on,
23:54I saw,
23:55I started seeing many,
23:56not hitting faces,
23:58in a large number.
23:59So,
23:59it means that,
24:00there is a big,
24:01demographic change also.
24:03When the Sumagwe,
24:04say,
24:04from the,
24:05he lost against,
24:07with that,
24:08that time,
24:09he lost by 6,000,
24:11first time.
24:12Second,
24:12defeat was by 20,000.
24:14So,
24:14it means that,
24:15demography is also,
24:16speedily changing.
24:17On the other hand,
24:19the Marathi,
24:19both the Thakres,
24:20are talking,
24:21and Marathi Manus,
24:22is shifting,
24:22where the far,
24:23of the Mumbai's,
24:24suburb,
24:25you know,
24:25Vasari,
24:26Virar,
24:26Panver,
24:27we don't know the locations also.
24:30So,
24:31these are the two factors.
24:33Okay,
24:33okay.
24:34Rajdeep,
24:34you know,
24:35many would suggest,
24:35that maybe,
24:36why are we talking,
24:37so much about,
24:38the Thakre brothers,
24:39and Yashwan Deshmukh,
24:40has said it many a times,
24:41that there is this big,
24:43factor,
24:43where Devendra Fadnavis,
24:44is concerned as well.
24:46But,
24:46now that we are,
24:47talking about it,
24:48Rajdeep,
24:49are we over emphasizing,
24:51the influence,
24:52of the Thakre brothers,
24:53coming together,
24:54especially,
24:55after the speeches,
24:56and the rallies,
24:57of the last few days?
25:01Well,
25:02well,
25:02Preeti,
25:02I think,
25:03look,
25:03the Thakre brothers,
25:05or cousins,
25:05coming together,
25:06after 20 years,
25:07is why this election,
25:08becomes significant.
25:10It is,
25:11an existential battle,
25:12for the Thakres.
25:13Do they retain,
25:14the Thakre brand,
25:16or has Eknath Shinder,
25:18virtually snatched it,
25:19away from them?
25:23The Shiv Sena itself,
25:25gets about 23,
25:2624% of the vote.
25:29Does Raj Thakre,
25:30add to the UBT Shiv Sena vote?
25:33Or,
25:34will he alienate,
25:35some of those,
25:36who embraced,
25:38the Shiv Sena,
25:39in the 2024 Lok Sabha,
25:41like Muslim voters?
25:42I think,
25:43for the Thakre brothers,
25:44this is truly,
25:45a do or die battle.
25:46There is absolutely,
25:47no doubt about that.
25:48They have lost,
25:49the Vidhan Sabha,
25:50they have lost elections,
25:51outside Mumbai.
25:53Without Mumbai,
25:54as their citadel,
25:55as their base,
25:56they will find it,
25:57very difficult,
25:58to retain their,
25:59kariyakartas,
26:00or workers.
26:01So,
26:02is Raj Thakre,
26:03a force multiplier?
26:04He certainly added,
26:06with that speech,
26:06that he made,
26:07a lot of vigour,
26:08to the Shiv Sena campaign,
26:09but it also put off,
26:11a lot of people,
26:12who are,
26:12completely,
26:13angry,
26:14with the kind of,
26:15coarsen language,
26:16he used,
26:17particularly against,
26:18Anna Malai,
26:19and Tamil.
26:20So,
26:20he's a bit of a,
26:20double-edged sword,
26:22so we'll have to see,
26:22how that plays out.
26:25And really,
26:26for the Thakre cousins,
26:27coming together,
26:29will they be able,
26:30to save their own,
26:31political careers,
26:32is still a big question.
26:34Okay.
26:34The Shiv Sena,
26:35have often been written,
26:36allow me to bring in,
26:38Yashwan Deshmukh,
26:39he wanted to come in,
26:39go ahead sir.
26:41Yeah,
26:41I mean,
26:41just to add to,
26:42Radheep's point,
26:43that you know,
26:44it's,
26:44it's a,
26:45do or die battle,
26:46I mean,
26:46obviously,
26:47it's a,
26:48that kind of,
26:49equity,
26:50on the table,
26:51but,
26:51at the same time,
26:53when I'm looking at,
26:54the entire pitch,
26:56of the campaign,
26:57Preeti,
26:57I can,
26:58not help but notice,
26:59that,
26:59the,
27:00the entire focus,
27:02of Thakre brothers,
27:02is only and only,
27:04Marathi Manu's,
27:05voter,
27:06and thinking,
27:07that Muslims,
27:08will vote for them,
27:08automatically,
27:09in order to defeat,
27:10the BJP.
27:11Now,
27:13the,
27:13the comments,
27:14which Raj Thakre made,
27:16ensured only one thing,
27:17that non-Marathi voters,
27:19are gonna go away.
27:21So,
27:21that is one thing,
27:22for very clear,
27:24the,
27:24we are not talking about,
27:25any possible split,
27:27in the non-Marathi voters,
27:28we are not talking about,
27:29any possible split,
27:31among the Muslim voters,
27:32the focus is now,
27:34about,
27:34the possible split,
27:35of the Marathi voters,
27:36or the,
27:37what kind of,
27:38split would be there,
27:39between,
27:40Dewey and the Shinde faction,
27:42and the Thakre's faction,
27:43so that's,
27:44so,
27:45when you look into,
27:46the arithmetic of it,
27:47so,
27:47in order to safeguard,
27:48the Puritan Marathi base,
27:51they have managed,
27:51to somehow antagonize,
27:53the entire non-Marathi base.
27:55Now,
27:56if it is going to be,
27:57useful or not,
27:58whether,
27:58it is going to be,
28:00a successful strategy,
28:02it might have worked,
28:04a few decades back,
28:05as Radheep said,
28:06but the demography,
28:07of Mumbai has changed,
28:09and that is,
28:10that is something,
28:11which tells me,
28:11that might not be,
28:13a very,
28:14very true,
28:14The politics,
28:15basically Sahil,
28:15would you want to,
28:16you know,
28:16come in on that,
28:17the politics of,
28:18counter polarization,
28:19could come up,
28:20and really bite,
28:21the Thakre brothers,
28:22political pitch,
28:23this time.
28:23Well,
28:26more than that,
28:26I really think,
28:27that the counter polarization,
28:28is not going to be,
28:30very effective,
28:30for the BJP,
28:31as we have already,
28:31shown in the numbers,
28:32that the BJP,
28:33could manage to get,
28:34close to,
28:35Thakre,
28:36only and only because,
28:37they could make dent,
28:38in the Marathi dominated areas,
28:40and they could sell,
28:41their pitch,
28:41of the development,
28:42which Devendra Fadnavis,
28:43was trying to sell,
28:44but I would just like,
28:45to make the last point,
28:46about,
28:47which is not political,
28:48which is clearly,
28:49depends on the numbers,
28:50you know,
28:51I would just come to,
28:52the voting percentage,
28:53everyone knows that,
28:54be it Lok Sabha,
28:55be it Assembly,
28:56the numbers,
28:57the voting percentage numbers,
28:59in Mumbai,
28:59have always been lesser,
29:01than that of the rest,
29:02of the Maharashtar,
29:03or any other,
29:03you are talking about,
29:04the class divide here is where,
29:07yeah,
29:07no no,
29:07so listen,
29:08so what I am trying to say is,
29:10that when it comes to,
29:11the BMC election,
29:12it goes even down,
29:14because,
29:15you know,
29:15the lesser number of people,
29:17come out and vote,
29:18in the BMC elections,
29:19and that is where,
29:20the BJP must be fretting,
29:22at this point of time,
29:23because,
29:23the BJP's numbers,
29:25in 2017,
29:26increased,
29:27is because,
29:27for the first time,
29:28in last 20 odd years,
29:31for the first time,
29:32the BMC,
29:33during the BMC polls,
29:34in 2017,
29:36the vote percentage,
29:37in Mumbai,
29:38crossed 50% mark,
29:39and reached to 55%,
29:41and that is how also,
29:42the BJP could manage,
29:43to make that,
29:44jump to the 82 seats,
29:45whereas,
29:46all the elections before,
29:48since 1992,
29:49the vote percentage,
29:50has always been,
29:51around 45%,
29:52and that is where,
29:53the Shif Senai,
29:54the class divide comes in,
29:57because usually,
29:57stereotypes,
29:58of sophology,
29:59seem to suggest,
30:00if the voting percentage,
30:01is less,
30:02then you are having,
30:03not the upper class,
30:04come out,
30:05which is the traditional,
30:06vote base of the BJP,
30:07that happens in Mumbai,
30:08that happens in Mumbai,
30:09so that's,
30:10that's the political point,
30:11that Sahil's trying to make,
30:12I'm taking final comments,
30:13Shamkar Raya,
30:13do we finally have you,
30:14if you do,
30:15final comments sir,
30:16this will be a GTS election,
30:20on GTS you have plot,
30:23the first,
30:24where,
30:24value of,
30:26property,
30:27of the area,
30:28where vote happens,
30:29you have plot,
30:30there are,
30:31non-gitalians,
30:33as I mentioned,
30:35today,
30:36voting percentage,
30:38the demography,
30:39everything,
30:40but one thing,
30:41that is not discussed,
30:44is the level,
30:46of expertise,
30:47the complaint,
30:48about,
30:49Christians,
30:51about,
30:51about,
30:53Shankar Raya,
30:53I am afraid sir,
30:54there's a problem,
30:55with your audio,
30:56we have been trying,
30:56to correct it,
30:57I am afraid,
30:58we can't hear you,
30:59I apologize sir,
31:00there's a huge problem,
31:00with your audio link there,
31:02Jayant Menkar,
31:03do you want to come in,
31:04final comments Mr Menkar?
31:06Yeah,
31:07I mean there is,
31:08sort of the description,
31:10on the language,
31:11percentage also,
31:13around 35% are,
31:14Maharashtrians,
31:1623% are North Indians,
31:1811% are Gujaratis,
31:20and as what is mentioned,
31:22that even 18 to 20%,
31:24are Muslim votes,
31:25and,
31:26any sort of,
31:27alliance,
31:28between as it is,
31:28stated,
31:30Mahmoud,
31:31Marathi,
31:32and Muslim,
31:32and Muslims,
31:33are not going to vote,
31:35definitely,
31:36for BJP,
31:38and they had already,
31:39voted for,
31:40Shiva Sena,
31:41so naturally,
31:43considering this alliance,
31:44that is why I said,
31:45that I keep,
31:46Thakre's,
31:47Thakre brothers,
31:48with the two brothers,
31:49are coming together,
31:51with MNS having,
31:51at least 7% votes,
31:53of course,
31:54in Marathi dominated area,
31:55and though,
31:56BJP may have had,
31:58whatever,
31:5844 seats,
32:00in 2017,
32:01but,
32:03after that,
32:04into,
32:04the situation,
32:05has changed,
32:05in 2019,
32:07and I am looking,
32:08only at the present,
32:09situation,
32:10and I am mentioning,
32:11the days also,
32:12from 5th of July,
32:13when the 4th Hindi,
32:15the two brothers,
32:16came together,
32:18against,
32:18protesting against,
32:19the 4th Hindi,
32:20and day before,
32:21yesterday's rally,
32:22these two events,
32:24these two events,
32:25You are saying,
32:25could change the course?
32:27Yes,
32:28yes,
32:28these two events.
32:29Okay,
32:29these two events,
32:30could change the course,
32:31you know,
32:31one thing,
32:32I think,
32:32what we began with,
32:33and what we are possibly,
32:33ending in,
32:34with the FAG end,
32:35of this conversation is,
32:37the Mamu factor,
32:38could really prevail,
32:39but will the Muslims,
32:40vote for the Congress,
32:42even knowing,
32:42that they really doesn't,
32:44the Congress doesn't,
32:44have the might,
32:45to defeat the BJP,
32:47will they ally,
32:47with the Shiv Sena,
32:49there are also parties,
32:50like the AIMIM,
32:51which are hoping,
32:52to represent their interests,
32:53and will they go,
32:54with the AIMIM,
32:55a third party,
32:56where they think,
32:57that maybe,
32:58their interests,
32:58are represented.
32:59Sudhir Suryawanchi,
33:00final comments.
33:02See,
33:03in this election also,
33:04you know,
33:05Thakere versus Hindi,
33:06there are 87 seats,
33:08while the Thakere versus BGP,
33:10there are 97 seats.
33:12As the side has,
33:13rightly pointed out,
33:14last thing,
33:15BGP has made,
33:16major dent,
33:16in the Marathi Oats,
33:18but,
33:19in 2017,
33:20I covered,
33:21the election,
33:22that time,
33:22I didn't find,
33:23that much,
33:24regionals,
33:24among the Marathi Oaters,
33:26and the Thakere,
33:27were not able,
33:28to touch the court,
33:29although Thakere,
33:30got 84 seats,
33:31in the BMC,
33:32due to,
33:32you know,
33:33strong,
33:33shakas,
33:35you know,
33:35his corporate work,
33:37and strong candidate,
33:39but this time,
33:40I am seeing,
33:40the resonance,
33:41among the Marathi Oaters,
33:42because of Thakere,
33:43joining the hand,
33:45whether that will,
33:45really make the difference,
33:46that is the most important thing.
33:48Second,
33:49important thing,
33:50you know,
33:50Muslim Oaters,
33:52were consolidatedly,
33:53voted to,
33:54Maa Vika Sagadi,
33:55Miss Congress,
33:55and Ujdao Thakere,
33:56in Mumbai,
33:57but the local election,
33:58these,
33:59votes will get,
34:00divided,
34:01among the many,
34:02multiple parties,
34:03like MIM,
34:03NCP,
34:04to NCP,
34:05then Congress,
34:06there is,
34:06Vanchi Daghadi,
34:07there is,
34:07Ujdao Thakere is there,
34:09so,
34:10whether this,
34:10you know,
34:1118,
34:1120 percent votes,
34:13where it will go,
34:13we get divided,
34:15in the large number,
34:16and I think,
34:17then,
34:17it is very tough,
34:18for the Thakere,
34:19to come back.
34:20Okay.
34:20So,
34:21well,
34:21interesting,
34:22Rajdi,
34:22because we've been talking,
34:23about now,
34:23two big issues,
34:24that are emerging,
34:24of all the factors,
34:25that we discussed,
34:26and we discussed,
34:27five big factors,
34:29that could influence,
34:30this election,
34:30two biggest ones,
34:31the Mamu factor,
34:32the Muslim Marathi vote,
34:33coming together,
34:34and who it could impact,
34:35and number two,
34:36the class divide,
34:39and the voter turnout,
34:40are two,
34:41most talked about factors,
34:42and Sahil,
34:43correct me if I'm wrong,
34:44you can come in,
34:44but Rajdeep,
34:45you've spoken,
34:46you know,
34:47right in the beginning,
34:47about the Mamu factor,
34:48you want to reflect,
34:49on the class,
34:50and the voter turnout,
34:52impact on the results?
34:53look,
34:58I think,
34:58what is one of the most,
34:59interesting factors,
35:00Preeti,
35:00in BMC elections,
35:02is that the,
35:02more affluent areas,
35:04hardly vote,
35:05the lowest voting percentages,
35:06are those,
35:07where the per capita income,
35:08is the highest,
35:09the areas like Malabar Hill,
35:10who goes and votes,
35:11the poor vote,
35:12that happens in most elections,
35:13but in BMC,
35:14that gets even,
35:15more accentuated,
35:17and that is where,
35:17as I said,
35:18local factors will matter,
35:20if I'm a Shaka Pramuk,
35:21a branch head,
35:22of the Shif Sena,
35:22who's working closely,
35:23with people in a chawl,
35:25or a slum,
35:25I might have an advantage,
35:27in an election like this,
35:28let me also point out,
35:29one more factor,
35:30that perhaps I ignored,
35:31earlier,
35:32while you were asking me,
35:33the five big factors,
35:34which is resources,
35:35the amount of money,
35:37that some candidates have,
35:38and their links with real estate,
35:40is quite staggering,
35:41we've been given amounts,
35:42of how much people,
35:43are willing to pay,
35:44for one vote,
35:45that are quite shocking,
35:46and just reveals,
35:47the high stakes,
35:48involved in an election,
35:49like this,
35:50so maybe,
35:51if you go to,
35:52a poorer area,
35:54and you're willing,
35:54to distribute,
35:55that kind of money,
35:56to win votes,
35:57who knows,
35:58what impact,
35:59that can have,
36:01on the final election,
36:03on the final election results,
36:05of Mumbai.
36:07Okay,
36:07all right,
36:08okay,
36:08Shankar Rai,
36:08I think we've tried,
36:09to get you back again.
36:13Well,
36:14this is the,
36:15basic evaluation of,
36:20all of this will,
36:22things that have not been,
36:25Sir,
36:25we can hardly hear you,
36:28we can't hear you sir,
36:29we've tried three times over,
36:31this election,
36:32your vote at least,
36:32on the channel,
36:33is disqualified,
36:34because we can't hear you,
36:36there's an issue there,
36:37Sahil,
36:37final comments.
36:40Well,
36:40I'll just put forward,
36:41five points,
36:42which I have just,
36:43jot down,
36:43you know,
36:44after the whole conversation,
36:45the first,
36:45and foremost,
36:47even if,
36:47Devendra Fandavis is the,
36:49is the one,
36:50who will pull out votes,
36:52for the BJP,
36:53in Mumbai,
36:54despite that,
36:54the consolidation,
36:56of the Marathi,
36:57speaking votes,
36:58in Mumbai,
36:59is going to be,
37:00the key factor,
37:01in the upcoming,
37:03BMC elections,
37:04if the two brothers,
37:05manage to snatch,
37:0670% of the chunk,
37:0760 to 70% of the chunk,
37:09of the Marathi,
37:10speaking voters,
37:11then,
37:11they will have age,
37:12the second factor,
37:13which is going to be,
37:14the Hindutva,
37:14the original pitch,
37:16of Bala Sahib Thakre,
37:17now,
37:18the BJP is pushing,
37:19forward to it,
37:20if the BJP,
37:21manage to push it,
37:21forward thoroughly,
37:22then,
37:23they will retain,
37:24those kind of votes,
37:25at least in Mumbai,
37:26the third factor,
37:27which I think,
37:28is going to be,
37:29the selling of the,
37:29triple engine,
37:30which BMC,
37:31which the BJP,
37:32always tries to do,
37:33in the state corporate,
37:34state elections,
37:36the double engine one,
37:37here in Mumbai,
37:38you know,
37:39the triple engine,
37:40whether it works,
37:41or not,
37:41that is something,
37:42which is going to be,
37:43important,
37:43the fourth factor,
37:44is going to be,
37:45the Muslim votes,
37:46which have been,
37:47going to Shiv Sena,
37:48UBT,
37:48since Lok Sabha,
37:49and assembly elections,
37:50now,
37:51this time,
37:51the Congress,
37:52fighting against,
37:53the Shiv Sena,
37:54UBT,
37:54and MNF alliance,
37:55whether the Congress,
37:56pulls those,
37:57Muslim votes,
37:58towards them,
38:00that is going to be,
38:01the last,
38:01and the last one,
38:02is the vote percentage,
38:02which I had already,
38:03the vote percentage,
38:04okay,
38:04five factors,
38:05that Sahil pulled out,
38:06Yashwan Deshmuk,
38:07you want to come in,
38:07because of the five factors,
38:09that Sahil gave,
38:09and just to reflect on that,
38:10the counter of Hindutva,
38:13and if Uddhar Thakre,
38:15is getting the Muslim votes,
38:16then he also,
38:17stands to lose,
38:18a fair amount,
38:19of Hindutva votes,
38:20will be upside down,
38:28after the results are out,
38:29simply because,
38:30if the Thakre business win,
38:32I mean,
38:32if Raj Thakre,
38:34and Uddhar Thakre,
38:35winning together,
38:35means a win for secularism,
38:38then it tells you,
38:38the times we are living in,
38:40all right,
38:41I mean,
38:42let's be,
38:44let's be honest about it,
38:45you know.
38:46Totally,
38:46and I think,
38:47somebody just needs to reflect back,
38:49in political history,
38:50to understand the context,
38:51that Yashwan's trying to make.
38:53So,
38:53that's,
38:54having said that,
38:55philosophically speaking,
38:56I would be very much,
38:57looking at the fact,
38:59that this contest,
39:00might be very much,
39:01bipolar in nature,
39:02and in the previous elections,
39:04we have seen,
39:05almost 30 to 40 percent,
39:06votes in Mumbai municipality,
39:08going to others,
39:09independents,
39:10and smaller parties,
39:11that chunk,
39:12is going to be,
39:13shrinking,
39:14further.
39:15Okay.
39:15If that happens,
39:16it might also,
39:17give us an idea,
39:19how the future,
39:19of Indian politics,
39:20is going to evolve,
39:21in terms of,
39:22one nation,
39:23one election,
39:24that bipolarization process,
39:25that we have been,
39:26looking at,
39:27in many of these elections,
39:28in the past,
39:29that we have covered together,
39:30that you know,
39:31the third parties,
39:32or the independents,
39:33or the smaller parties,
39:34their space is shrinking.
39:36Will Mumbai municipality,
39:37election,
39:38will be any,
39:39different,
39:40from that?
39:41That remains to be seen.
39:42Okay.
39:42Sudeer Suryavanshi,
39:43very short sir,
39:45final points.
39:46See,
39:46I just say two lines,
39:48of clear factor,
39:49among the Marathi voters,
39:51you know,
39:52if,
39:53non-Thakre political party,
39:55come in power in BMC,
39:56they will lose,
39:57or the Marathi,
39:58will lose the Mumbai,
39:59that is clear factor,
40:00and the continuation,
40:02dominance of the non-Marathi,
40:03will continue in Mumbai,
40:04that is first thing.
40:06Second thing,
40:07during the Barasai Thakre,
40:08there was an entire generation,
40:09who was,
40:10emotionally connected,
40:11to him and his features,
40:12they love,
40:13they dance,
40:14they do everything,
40:15on the Barasai Thakre's tour,
40:16but there are,
40:17Genji voters,
40:18nobody has talked about it,
40:20whether,
40:21to whom they are connected,
40:22I think Aditya Thakre,
40:24and Amit Thakre,
40:25are trying to connect,
40:26these Genji voters,
40:27because these are very,
40:28you know,
40:29aspirant class,
40:29these are very,
40:30you know,
40:30development oriented class,
40:32if they want to see,
40:34these two Thakre,
40:35as a,
40:35bringing them as a,
40:36for the development,
40:37So it's there,
40:38okay.
40:38Jaiant Minkar,
40:40very quick,
40:41very quick,
40:41quick interjection,
40:42go ahead.
40:46Okay,
40:46we don't have Jaiant Minkar,
40:47do we,
40:47Jaiant Minkar,
40:48you have,
40:48very quick intervention,
40:50sir.
40:50Yes, yes, yes, yes.
40:51See, I mean,
40:53I agree that,
40:54this unity of,
40:55among the Marra Marashtri,
40:57and the Marraji speaking people,
40:58particularly these two brothers,
40:59is of course,
41:00an important factor,
41:01but I agree that,
41:02how to pull out the voters,
41:04is most important,
41:05and,
41:06in 2017,
41:08there was a 55% voting,
41:10the voters turned out,
41:11if BJP succeeds,
41:13in maintaining,
41:14or increasing that,
41:16then,
41:16Right,
41:16so I think one thing,
41:18which is factor number five,
41:19for Sahil,
41:19and it's something,
41:20that we've looked at,
41:21which you're right sir,
41:21if it is about 55%,
41:23that could be advantage BJP,
41:24anything lesser than that,
41:26that could be disadvantage BJP,
41:28or NDA rather,
41:29a quick break,
41:30I appreciate all you gentlemen,
41:32for joining us,
41:33thank you there,
41:33for taking the time out,
41:34alright,
41:35staying on with BMC polls,
41:36and leaving you,
41:36with the latest,
41:37in terms of politics,
41:38the Mumbai identity row,
41:40has spiraled,
41:40into a full blown,
41:41political war,
41:42exactly how,
41:43find out,
41:44thank you for watching,
41:44and see you tomorrow,
41:46Slurs, hateful comments,
42:16and a vulgar political low.
42:18Battle for Mumbai sinks to new depths.
42:22Slugfest after MNS Supremo Raj Thakre's vulgar attack on BJP's Annamalai explodes.
42:28It all started when former Tamil Nadu BJP chief called Mumbai a global city.
42:33And not just a Maharashtra city.
42:46Because Bombay is not a Maharashtra city.
42:49It is an international city.
42:51Raj fired back with a vulgar Lungi Pungi and Rasmalai jive.
42:55It all started with a Tamil Nadu.
42:58So, what is Mumbai and the Maharashtra relationship?
43:01What is the relationship between these two people?
43:03These two people are talking about it.
43:05They will take care of it and take care of it.
43:08Maharashtra CM Devendra Fadnavis stepped in to defend his party colleague,
43:12triggering an aggressive counter-attack from MNS chief.
43:16So, what is the relationship between Mumbai and the Maharashtra?
43:20His elder cousin and SENA UBT Supremo, Uddhav, joined his cousin in targeting the BJP leader.
43:42Fadnavis came down heavily on the talk race, saying they face a threat to survival.
43:59With campaign coming to an end, it is now over to voters in Maharashtra.
44:27And they will decide Mumbai ka king korn.
44:30With Vidya, Bureau Report, India Today.
Be the first to comment