00:00As fighting continues in the Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, questions are now mounting over Kinshasa's real capacity to put pressure on neighboring Rwanda,
00:09accused by Congolese authorities of backing the M23 rebellion.
00:13According to Congolese political scientist Christian Molekakibamku, the DRC's diplomatic military room for maneuver has narrowed significantly.
00:22Kinshasa can use the U.S. agreement to give Washington a role as a source of pressure,
00:26and I believe the government had high expectations of the American mediator,
00:31hoping that the economic interest linked to the agreement will push Washington to put pressure on Kigali.
00:36Today, Kinshasa has less room for maneuver over the M23.
00:40Apart from the possible option of an inclusion national dialogue, which Kinshasa has always shunned until recently,
00:46and which is an initiative driven by the bishops, there are few alternatives.
00:50The possibility of holding a national dialogue, which many thought the president would continue during his address,
00:56to the nation, could also have served as a tool, a lever for negotiations with the M23,
01:02unless, from a military standpoint, Kinshasa were able to establish a real balance of power.
01:08The balance between DR Congo, Rwanda, and Burundi is now increasingly fragile,
01:12and missteps by any actor could tip the region into a broader war.
01:16There is a possibility for a regional flare-up.
01:20Burundi chose to support the Congolese army because it was a rational choice.
01:24There are Burundian rebels, Red Tabara in South Kivu,
01:27who are practically in alliance with pro-Rwandan movements, including Rwanda itself.
01:33We know about the hostility between the two countries,
01:35and there's the possibility that some might use rebels to destabilize the other.
01:39So entering Congo for Burundi also means defining a kind of security zone by fighting alongside Congo
01:46and reducing the disruptive capacity of Red Tabara, who could destabilize the country.
01:51But with Rwanda taking Uvira and thus practically controlling the border with Burundi,
01:55there is now a possibility that Red Tabara could reorganize and either directly or indirectly destabilize Burundi,
02:02or that the Rwandan army itself could drive a certain dynamic from behind that will strategically threaten the regime.
02:07So we face the possibility of a conflict that could become regionalized with the broader fear-up and opening of a new front in Burundi.
02:15M23 said it took control of Uvira last week following a rapid offensive launch at the start of the month.
02:21Along with more than 400 people killed, about 200,000 people have been displaced, according to regional officials.
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