Fed's Goolsbee Says Dissent Wasn't About Being a Hawk

Watch Fed's Goolsbee Says Dissent Wasn't About Being a Hawk - Bloomberg on Dailymotion

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00:00the inflation rate has not been great we after a couple of years of progress

00:07it's still the case that we've been four and a half years above the two percent target

00:13we were making progress over much of 2024 the last six months plus we've made no progress

00:24and it's inched the wrong way and right before the lights went out if you looked at services

00:32inflation was was three percent for the first half of the year and the the the last three months

00:40before the lights went out it was three and a half percent that's not ideal because that's

00:45probably not coming from terrorists and historically that's been a pretty persistent component of

00:53inflation and so my dissent was rooted not in being a hawk because i'm not over the next year

01:02i still think as i have thought for some time that if we can just get the dust out of the air

01:09fundamentally rates can go down a fair amount from where they are today it's just that front

01:16loading the rate cuts when you don't have information and inflation's already higher than

01:25the target for four and a half years you got a couple of disturbing readings and when i'm out

01:31talking to people in the district one of the biggest concerns they're expressing everywhere

01:36is the prices are too high the inflation is is disturbing i don't think it was much risk it would

01:46have been much risk to just wait a little bit small amount of patience wait till q1 of 2026

01:54we're going to get a whole bunch of information you know i always say with data one month is no months

02:03that one month is not a trend so you need more than that but i'm going to make an exception for this

02:09month because this one month is three months we're going to get three months of data in in in one i

02:15said you should cancel the meeting but nobody listens to me i was a you you want to move it to christmas

02:20he want to move it to christmas what are you guys afraid of a couple change fees on your

02:24ticket we're going to get a couple of pieces we're going to get a couple of you want to spend the

02:29money on the point of me it wasn't me what's that they already made their vacation plans right so

02:37so here's my thing we're we haven't gotten information the last information we saw right

02:42before the lights went out wasn't great but it might have just been a blip we're supposed to get

02:49if you believe that the inflation we've seen is almost entirely from tariffs and will be transitory

02:57that's supposed to start showing up in the data in q1 of 2026

03:04if you feared that the labor market was going to fall apart so rapidly that you can't just wait

03:13six weeks or a month or two to get the data i would understand it but my read of the job market

03:22is not that it showed a little weakness cooled modestly but most of the measures have been stable

03:31and a lot of the measures are at levels that have characterized normal expansion times strong

03:41labor markets the hiring rate is low but the layoff rate is also extremely low and that's not

03:51recessions don't have low layoff rates that you don't see unemployment claims going up that you

03:59don't see the the layoff rate high that you see the job openings rate actually rising and and its level

04:07i think is a around what it was yeah it lasts in a strong job market those gave me at least enough

04:17confidence that i felt the wiser decision would have been like that's just wait i'm not saying

04:21that with that it means we have to not consider cuts for a long time i just want to be sure

04:30that inflation is actually coming down