00:00My concern at this immediate time is that we've got to get our heads around an oil shock which is
00:11going to drive up prices in a stagflationary way potentially before the other one has gone away.
00:19So the prices spiked from tariffs and they were supposed to go away and this is now hitting before that
00:29went away and that's eerily reminiscent of that period where the COVID supply shock damage happened driving up inflation and
00:40then the war breaks out in Ukraine before that's fixed itself and it's another supply shock on top of it.
00:48So this how persistent this is going to be I think is going to have a major impact on how
00:55you view the economy.
00:57I think the job market is basically stable but not great unusual in that there's very low hiring which feels
01:07like a recession but there's very low layoffs which normally is the opposite of a recession.
01:14So it's a strange for those both to be happening at the same time.
01:19I think it's from uncertainty.
01:21I think that's what happens when businesses are uncertain and they say we're just going to sit on our hands
01:26until we figure out is the war is this going to be a temporary shock.
01:32The since the 70s when if you're old enough you're you might remember the awful economic outcome from high oil
01:44prices in the 70s.
01:46We've gotten less oil using as an economy since then and we've become a much bigger energy producer since then
01:58so there if this sustains there is likely to be at least some part of the economy that's rebounding and
02:06producing energy but summary I'm cautious slash nervous about it in the moment.
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