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Silver has taken investors by surprise in 2025, rising far faster than anyone expected. What exactly is pushing the metal to new highs? Here’s what an expert has to say.
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00:00good afternoon and welcome to the market closing show this is our collab show between business
00:20today and india today television this is the 3 p.m market closing show where you'll get all
00:24the action but first up let's take a look at what's hot in the corporate and the financial space
00:28hope rises for a long pending india u.s trade deal as the new u.s negotiators have begun talks in new
00:38delhi ustr greer tells senators india is making its best ever offers on agricultural access calling it
00:46a tough but increasingly forward-leaning market
00:50investment pours into india despite trump calling india a dead economy microsoft has committed
01:0217.5 billion dollars into ai and cloud while amazon plans 35 billion dollars till 2030 creating over
01:11one million jobs in india stock markets trade cautiously right ahead of tonight's u.s federal
01:20reserves rate decision sensex has fallen by 300 points today while the nifty has slipped below
01:25the 25 800 mark led by it stocks bsu banks while buying emergence is uh is being seen in metal stocks
01:33as well as investors who are awaiting the fed queues meanwhile me show has stared at has in fact
01:40debuted today at a 45 premium at 161 rupees per share as against the issue price of 111 rupees
01:46indigo flight chaos continues with 300 cancellations today the dgca has summoned ceo peter elbers tomorrow
01:58at 3 p.m while delhi high court has questioned soaring airfares it is spice jet and air india
02:03which plan to add 170 daily flights this winter to ease disruption
02:08in the commodities world silver prices soar to new record high levels 1.9 lakh rupees per kilogram
02:19on the mcx and 62 dollars versus an ounce on the comics now remember this is right ahead of the fed
02:25decision boosting also hindustan zinc shares by five percent in trade today the company
02:30is india's only pure silver play and that sees a strong investor traction
02:35let's straight away look at how the markets are trading at this point in time well the nifty is
02:45hovering at 25 758 that's down by about three tenths percent in the session we are at the day's lowest
02:51point remember we've had a very very choppy session throughout the course of the day this
02:55is despite the fact that yesterday was a sigh of relief in the markets now only three sectors are
03:00continuing to hover themselves into the green you can see metals oil and gas pharma and just about
03:06slight uptick on the media stocks but rest of the sectors have all slipped now look at the mid and
03:11the small caps that's where the pain point is that's the broader markets the smaller shares that
03:16are failing the brunt of the market move on the nervous side and on the cautious side in fact small
03:21cap index with this kind of a fall that we are seeing today has already fallen by over nine percent
03:28in the year 2025 in fact it has logged in one of its worst years in the last seven years in terms of
03:35the performance that we have seen year to date for the small cap index now at 17 105 and that's where
03:40the pain point is emerging for a lot of retail investors that have their maximum exposure to mid and the
03:45small cap shares there let's look at the top movers as far as the nifty is concerned you have aisha
03:50motors that's up by one and a half percent you have htfc live you have hero moto tata steel coal india
03:55these are all the stocks that are managing to stay themselves into the green despite the overall
03:59weakness in the sentiment we can also look at the weakness however indigo again continuing uh the
04:06cancellations that we are seeing this is despite peter elbers yesterday coming out with a statement
04:10that operations have stabilized there are 300 flights that have canceled today so look at the stock that is
04:15also getting further beaten down three percent lower for indigo today eternal trend adani enterprises
04:21and sriram finance these are all the stocks that continue to hover lower let's now welcome our guest
04:25on board vinit bulinchkar the head of research at ventura securities is now joining in warm welcome to
04:30you vinit and good to have you with us hope your health is all good and you're back in shape help us
04:35understand what's your take in the markets uh per se now we have been seeing a lot of volatile trade off
04:40late what do you make of it yeah so uh we think that it's going to be up to uh we can do them okay
04:49uh the you know the the strength in the you know small cap stores continues to be uh pressure due to the
04:57effect of all the you know the pain that is being uh sold out so we continue to be uh wearing on this
05:05right uh vinit we'll just get back to you facing some uh technical issues and we'll get that line
05:14through very quickly meanwhile viewers let's also welcome another guest who's joining in on the
05:18program we have vandana bhartiri head of commodity research at smc global securities now with us on
05:23the program and vandana it's silver that's shining the brightest 1.9 lakh rupees per kilogram did you
05:29anticipate that coming in especially after that um post diwali uh you know dips that we were seeing
05:35in both gold and silver it seemed that most of the rally is now done and out but uh despite that before
05:41the end of the year you have another milestone that we have clocked in and record high levels yet again
05:46on silver yeah it's a massive return of point eight uh 120 percent in international market in indian
05:52market it is 140 percent almost so yes uh uh it is a return which can match with the return where of
05:591971 but we were not expecting this kind of return in 2025 we were expecting only 55 to 58 dollars
06:07in comics and in mcx i was expecting uh 150 000 60 000 here so this is the extensive rally in silver
06:15and because of the government intervention uh uh announcing it as a critical minerals these factors
06:22these uh like stimulated uh heavy buying in physical silver so this time it was physical versus
06:28uh investment demand actually paper demand so yes they are there is massive uh decline in the
06:35mines production and there is massive demand in uh demand in industrial side so yes this is a
06:42negative correlation between the demand and supply which is stimulating the price to the higher side now
06:48we are expecting that it may reach 70 to 80 dollar in first quarter of 2026 so the rally will go on
06:56okay so the rally will go on viewers we are already looking at silver at an all-time record high price
07:02of 1.9 lakh rupees per kilogram back home in the domestic market in the international market it has
07:08surged to 62 dollars per ounce but what vandana is saying that even in the quarter one of the new calendar
07:14year from january to march you will be able to see even 70 or 80 dollars an ounce for uh silver as
07:21well so the rally is only going to go strong from here well uh do help us understand then vandana
07:27what should as an average investor one do even at these prices these prices are sky high 1.9 lakh
07:33rupees per kilogram should one still take that plunge and buy because you do believe that prices are only
07:38going to go up yeah this is a very crucial question and throughout 2025 retailers and investors they
07:45were waiting for the dip and uh it is yet to come and for uh like every uh fall of two to three percent
07:53five percent people they run for silver and this time it was physical silver etf fine it was on record
07:58high level and uh you know uh certain goals uh they have emerged for silver this time earlier it was
08:05only the jewelry demand it was only the investment demand this time it is going to be strategic
08:10strategic metals because central banks they have started buying silver uh indian government now uh
08:172026 onwards we can take the collateral loan or loan on silver uh now the central banks are buying uh u.s
08:24in china they have uh announced it has critical minerals so there was huge massive rush for physical
08:30silver and because of that we are yet to see any kind of correction so even two three five percent of
08:36correction is a very good buying point for silver and i'm not expecting that this commodity should go
08:41below the level of say 55 56 dollar in 2025 and in mcx terms or indian terms i can say that the uh the
08:52support should be near one lakh 85 000 to one lakh 80 000 and this is a very good support level where
08:58they can accumulate whether it is in investment demand or physical demand okay got that hold that
09:05thought uh you know i'm going to be coming back to you vandana in a bit and try to understand more about
09:10its uh larger player uh gold as well in fact i wanted to ask you uh silver has outperformed gold in terms of
09:17this record high prices now reaching but gold has been staying around that 1.3 lakh rupees per 10
09:24grams uh kind of a mark help us understand what's your expectation on gold will gold also see higher
09:30record levels as well going forward in 2025 and what's the expectation there yeah on chart we can say
09:37that longer the college consolidation higher the breakout so gold is on that mode only and we are
09:43expecting 25 uh business point rate cuts and uh we are expecting kevin as a new fed chief as for the
09:49indication of mr trump so he is uh like in favor of a quick uh like uh interest rate cut so these few
09:58factors and uh geopolitical tension and other tariff tension they will carry on in 2026 as well so
10:05negative factors for uh equity market and positive factors for gold it is going to be same in the 2026
10:12sport will change according to uh current scenario but interest rate cut will be sooner so in that
10:18scenario i am uh expecting that now this is the time of gold to outperform silver because for the
10:24timing yes if we do the comparison of gold silver ratio that is the uh ideal thing we can do that at
10:30present so it is somewhere near uh 65 is to one once it comes near 62 is to one then gold will try to
10:40outperform silver there so this in that point we can see a pause in the rally of silver and their
10:46gold rally will take on so yes 4 300 is a very crucial resistance but if we study the option chain
10:52data 4 500 is in sight because of the volume and open interest data concentration at 4 500 so in 2025
11:02or early 2026 we can expect 4500 time of level in gold and in indian dust it should be off 150 000
11:11absolutely vandana hold that thought that i'm going to be coming back to you to understand better on
11:16where should one be investing gold or silver at all these high prices but remember viewers we are also
11:22tracking the global story for you and which is on the u.s india trade deal a high level u.s trade
11:28delegation that's led by newly appointed deputy ustr rick switzer and india deal chief negotiator
11:36brendan lynch has wrapped its meeting at vanitja bhavan the ministry of commerce and industry meanwhile
11:42u.s trade representative jameson greer has actually confirmed before the senate appropriations committee
11:48that a dedicated american team is already on the ground in india and working on a potential trade deal
11:54in fact greer has also admitted that india is still a tough nut to crack on u.s farm exports
12:01particularly on crops meat and dairy but he's also stressed that new delhi is more forward leaning
12:08than ever before offering some of the strongest market access proposals that u.s has ever had back
12:15home the commerce minister also has shared uh the update on india u.s trade talk saying that the
12:21discussions with the u.s team in india are progressing towards potential free trade agreement
12:27let's actually hear the remarks of all the representatives there
12:32you mentioned india you know i have a team over there right now as we speak in new delhi uh working
12:38on this there is there's resistance uh in india um to certain row crops uh and and other meats and
12:45products they're like you said you said you know they're very difficult nut to crack i agree with that 100
12:49percent but they've been quite forward leaning uh the type of offers they've been talking to us
12:53about have been the best we've ever received uh as a country so you know i i think that's a viable
12:59alternative market united states of america ki team mangalwar se bharat may or uh
13:07uh to detail more uh update on the same i'm now also joined by my colleague karishma sudhani has been
13:26tracking this story very closely karishma finally some statements coming in for the first time from the
13:31u.s trade representatives saying that india is a tough nut to crack and we are holding our ground
13:37when it comes to the farm exports especially dairy meat and certain crops as well although
13:42the statements also come in that we are more forward leaning and are probably giving much more
13:47uh to the u.s than us has ever had in terms of a trade deal with india
13:53well um sakshi absolutely right two important days with high level meetings between the officials
13:59from washington and delhi uh and this meeting stands of utmost importance because this is coming
14:06at a time where uh uh both this both the countries have been speaking of uh uptick in optimism when it
14:14comes to sealing the deal before the year ends uh in fact uh just a few days ago uh india's trade
14:21secretary mr rajesh agarwal had also mentioned the same that they're looking to seal the deal of
14:27first tranche that is to do away with the reciprocal tariffs at least by the year end minister goyle
14:34today also affirmed in fact uh the u.s trade representatives have also shared a word of
14:39optimism but the big question is uh just the way you put out uh in terms of india being a tough nut
14:46where the u.s is still expecting some leeway when it comes to uh agri imports uh president donald trump's
14:53comments coming in on rice imports yesterday especially from india uh vietnam and thailand
14:59into the u.s at higher prices again poses the same question that agri still remains the sticking
15:04points and will continue to remain to what extent are we budging just we'll get to know in two days
15:10we'll get to know in two days and that's going to be an important two days that you are going to be
15:14tracking for us but karishma remember earlier when we were discussing with you what are the sticking
15:18points we used to always come back to the point of russian oil now that that seems to be you know
15:23a thing of the past and on the back burner it's now on the deal talks right now whatever is on the
15:29ground wherever the trade deal has to happen it's all about that because russian oil was being seen
15:35as something we were being penalized for uh you know and just being arm twisted for for nothing but
15:40right now the talks are actually on happening on the things that truly matter as far as the trade deal is
15:46concerned absolutely right sakshi i think uh you know like they say when the air passes the wind when
15:53the wind passes so does the problem uh ideally the 25 penalty that we've been given as a part of russian
16:01oil is something that is a major question currently because now if you see the discussions and
16:06negotiations between both the countries have come back to the talking table now it is again about
16:11agriculture we have come back to doing the same conversation that we had started back in the
16:17month of april when the tariffs were imposed so no surprise we should not be surprised in fact if a
16:24decision on doing away with the penalty tariffs is also taken in this negotiation
16:32all right thanks a lot then karishma for sharing all of that update with us let me go across
16:38to wandana who's been standing by uh wandana of course one of the other things that's happening
16:42in the u.s is the u.s uh federal reserve policy and tonight we will get to know uh the much anticipated
16:49whether there will be a 25 basis points cut we are also given to understand that the silver prices
16:54actually soared uh this uh high right ahead of that u.s fed meeting in anticipation of that uh rate cut
17:00coming in uh do you also expect that 25 basis points cut to be coming in will it actually provide
17:06further fuel to the rally that we've already seen or is most of the rally already priced in because of
17:11this rate cut so actually it has been discounted in the market and the rally is result of that uh
17:18and 25 this is uh rate cut point rate that it will give impact on the gold prices but silver it reacted
17:24in advance and it is on front foot right now it is not taking use from gold and base metal now it is
17:31heading this counter so like uh whatever statement uh he will give for uh january or further month it
17:38will give impact on the prices of silver but silver has reacted but still it has potential to reach the
17:44level of 64 or 65 dollar what option data is saying right now because there are lots of concentration on
17:50that strikes and accordingly prices will move up but the major move it should come in gold prices because
17:55it is in consolidation for long term long in fact on the same we have a query from one of our viewers
18:01one that i'm going to be throwing that query to you prateek singh from mathura says uh ma'am where
18:06should i invest now should i invest in gold or silver and which metal has better potential to give me
18:11higher returns i think that's the key query there today's back i would have saved silver but it is
18:18almost uh went up to by 40 000 rupees and but this time i would prefer uh gold because gold is in
18:26consolidation and the value buying it is in gold so yes you should go for gold whether it is etf or it
18:32isn't physical but yes if you are want to trade in derivative just trade will stop us and for shorter
18:40okay thanks a lot then manana for being with us on this program and of course helping all our viewers
18:45with your insight on both gold and silver and how do you expect these precious metals to go from here
18:50well the shining uh bright at this point in time and probably brighter in the days to follow as well
18:57now when we talk about what's really happening in the world of investments in india viewers
19:02it's the biggest tech giants of the world amazon microsoft google they're all betting big on india this
19:10is despite the fact that u.s president has time and again pointed out to india being a dead economy
19:16amazon and microsoft have announced massive new commitments to india's digital growth and ai growth
19:21story amazon senior vice president amit agarwal has said that the company will be investing about 35
19:27billion dollars more and enable 80 billion dollars in exports by 2030 meanwhile microsoft ceo satya nadella
19:34has also unveiled a 17 and a half billion dollars ai and data center investment plan with a new cloud
19:40region in hyderabad going live in 2026 let's listen in to what they had to say
19:48we estimate that we are going to invest over 35 billion dollars incrementally across our businesses
19:54and when i look at the three pillars that we set for ourselves as a part of the platform we would
20:04continue to measure our progress along those three pillars which happen to be digitization job creation
20:11and exports we estimate that we would create a cumulative 80 billion dollars of exports by 2030
20:17really excited about uh the investment uh we made uh i had a chance to meet uh prime minister modi
20:30yesterday and discuss our excitement about um yeah
20:37and it's fantastic to see uh this all landing and ultimately being able to be parlay these tokens
20:45per dollar per watt into all of the application systems that are going to get deployed broadly across
20:51the country and so the 17 and a half billion which is the largest investment uh we're made in asia to
20:56date uh and so we're uh thrilled about it all right we also are now joined by uh business today
21:04television's uh shell but nagar editor for markets right here shell uh welcome graph known to you um two
21:11minutes uh to go before the markets shut shop it's again turned out to be a very volatile
21:15recession we've slipped below the 25 800 mark in fact it's the small cap crash that is now raising
21:21some fear uh because it's it's uh the index has fallen by about what nine percent in this year so far
21:26logging in one of its uh worst years in the last seven years what's really happening in the markets
21:31it's carnage you should look at the sales that are happening and most of these will turn out to be
21:39delivery sales you just have to look at uh the top losers in nsc 500 and see uh the extent of pain
21:49that is uh coming into the system let me just uh uh paraphrase it for you in terms of uh uh losses
21:57gains it uh rose yesterday is now then down 10 percent uh indigo of course uh newsletter down three
22:05percent uh uh you have a bse down five percent with it mcx and you know these are all large cap stocks
22:14with the deep holdings in the mid cap and the small cap fund portfolio so massive massive selling
22:21pressure coming in today deliveries will determine the kind of pain that is likely to continue dixon is
22:28eight and a half percent lower sakshi you have a cut to the extent of three percent coming in on zomato
22:35so these are uh uh popular stocks with wide distribution uh valuations that were uh sky high
22:45and those are getting corrected sakshi absolutely and um shell tonight is when we will get to see what
22:51the u.s fed decides as far as the rate position is concerned will there be any respite tomorrow
22:58not for us okay so we continue to see the pain okay got that uh shall thanks uh for being with us
23:07let's uh quickly look at how the markets have shut shop viewers we'll wrap it up on that note so um
23:13you have the nifty at 25 741 about 97 points lower in trade so we have slipped to the low point of the
23:19day three tenths percent lower after that downward slide and shell clearly pointing out that there is
23:24more weakness to follow it's a carnage and you can see it from the broader market spread the nifty
23:30bank is down by 0.4 percent mid and small caps down by over a percent like i pointed out small caps
23:36logging in uh their worst performance uh in this year when we compare it with the last seven years
23:42in terms of the percentage performance so about a percent lower for this one and it's it's a bloodbath
23:49when we receive see below the surface particularly it's the broader markets so while the nifty you
23:55may see optically it's closer to its all-time high levels it's below the surface where all the pain
24:00point is and that is why all the retail investors are seeing their portfolios deep into the red at
24:06this point in time top movers on the nifty today by the end of the session have been aisha motors
24:10indalko htfc life tata steel these are the stocks that have managed to pull themselves up in an
24:16otherwise very weak market one percent higher in trade of course these are representative of what's
24:21happening in the sector so metals is higher oil and gas is higher pharma is up and you also see
24:26media stocks up in trade but mid and small caps are the biggest laggards in trade you have the it
24:32and the psu banks among the sectors also falling sharply you also have the nifty bank financial
24:38services down in trade as well almost to a percent these are the sectors that are down on the nifty the
24:43biggest pain points as shell has highlighted indigo eternal trend adani enterprises over one percent of
24:50a fall for all of them now remember viewers it's time for a break but we will leave you with the
24:55visuals of the new kia celtos which actually goes on sale from the 2nd of january prices for the new
25:02model have not been announced but what is clear from the visuals is that the second generation celtos has
25:09completely overhauled exteriors and interiors it will be available in the same three trim levels as
25:15before but the new car is nearly a meter longer than the current model the available engine options
25:22are also the same as before two petrol options and one diesel the new entrance spices up the mid-size
25:28suv segment which has already seen several launches including the maruti victoris tata sierra
25:35and will also soon have the new renault dista
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