- 3 months ago
The silver rally has been fuelled by global trade tensions, rate cut expectations, and fears over the US economy, leading investors to flock to safe-haven assets.
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00:00good morning and welcome to market opening on our collab show between
00:18business today and India today TV just after 9 we're here to get you ahead of
00:23the curve as markets kick off trading for the day let's take a look at what's
00:26hot in the corporate and financial space gold shoots to a shocking new high just
00:31shy of four thousand four hundred dollars an ounce in the futures market on
00:35comex it's set for the biggest weekly gain in 17 years silver also lodged at new
00:41highs latest spur due to renewed fears of a trade war between US and China Indian
00:46Sarafa Bazaar to reflect the movements ahead of Diwali week Indian IT major has
00:54downplay the impact of h1b visa rule changes in the u.s. infi, wipro, TCS,
00:59HCL Tech and Tech Mahindra all say the new visa charge will have limited or
01:03negligible impact as most of their u.s. staff are local hires the u.s.
01:08Chamber of Commerce has meanwhile sued the Trump administration over the hiked
01:11fees
01:14Indian stock markets expected to open in the red after Asian and u.s. stocks fall
01:19overnight due to global trade tensions bad loans at two u.s. banks
01:23Xeon's Bank Corp and Western Alliance heightened concerns about the credit
01:27market and lead to a fall in financials
01:32are we finally seeing green shoots for IT infi and wipro raise revenue
01:40guidance site improved deal flows investors meanwhile waiting for reliance
01:44industries key influences for markets next week
01:49Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal delivers a sharp rebuke to Indian industry at a CIA
01:54event says it demonstrates so much weakness by making a fuss over even a one
02:00to three percent quota for imported goods calling such reactions ridiculous he
02:04urged the sector to back India's free trade negotiations instead of resisting
02:09competition
02:14well first stop let's take a look at those gold prices breaking news coming in
02:20for you on your screen mcx gold hitting a record high remember it's then
02:25theaters also tomorrow we are celebrating that festival and everyone will be out
02:29there looking to shop gold opening at on like thirty one thousand four hundred
02:33twenty nine on the mcx remember it's just been about ten twelve days as my
02:38producer tells me gold shooting up almost three four hundred dollars so that
02:42gives you a sense of the kind of rise that we're seeing on the heavy metal
02:45futures now trading above one like thirty one six hundred and opening as you
02:50just saw silver is also at a record peak and we'll bring that up for you as
02:55well trading above one point six eight lakhs per kilo so those are the kind of
02:59prices that we're seeing on the precious metals this morning rising to record
03:04highs in the global markets some fears about credit quality in the US economy
03:08and heightened trade tensions between US and China strengthening demand for safe
03:13haven investments that way that's why we're seeing this consistent rise across
03:17gold and forty three hundred dollars that's the first time ever that we're
03:22seeing that kind of level on gold so that puts it on track for its biggest
03:26weekly gain since back in 2008 extending a breakneck rally that began in
03:31August meanwhile silver has smashed through an all-time high that was set in
03:36nineteen eighty that's what we saw this week on silver prices rose to a fresh
03:41peak of fifty four point three eight dollars an ounce that's a massive spike
03:44also visible in prices of palladium platinum so across the board on metals
03:51Ajay Kedia joining us now Ajay good morning we're tracking this phenomenal rise in the
03:57precious metals breaking all kinds of records historically tell us what you're
04:02making of the new all-time high trading above that forty three hundred dollars set
04:06for forty four hundred on gold very good morning Abha and first of all happy
04:12Diwali to you so I think this is a very auspicious day and we have already seen as gold prices have
04:20a step one like thirty thousand on domestic market has already crossed and
04:24silver has doubled from last Diwali and as we know dollar index is slightly trading
04:28weakness uncertainty between US and China trade tension shut down interest rate
04:33cut down everything is being as of now is supporting billion however we were not at
04:38all expecting this type of bull run mostly we see gold silver gives a return of
04:44around 20-25 this is the time well since last couple of years every aspect like
04:50geopolitical tension interest rate recession fear everything came at a one
04:54point and that is why this rally has been continued as a conjunction as a
04:58conjunction side yes still we expect the consumption or auspicious buying will
05:03continue to be there but for an investment part I think flight risk on is
05:07been there as of now but unless and until geopolitical concern doesn't comes down
05:11or interest rate scenario doesn't come down I think the rally can continue we can see
05:16the level like 4500 on international silver might go to the level of 72 also as
05:22global shorty is consistently supporting this price so still market is going on a
05:27higher side but with a slight cautious tone we should be there okay we're also
05:34expecting that short squeeze in silver to ease out post Diwali but in terms of
05:39these record prices Ajay do you feel that investors should be a bit wary at these
05:43levels do you feel it's it's always a good safe haven bet how do you anticipate
05:48demand pre and post Diwali we've just got a few days left now I think as an investor
05:55or a consumer definitely silver looks more attractive we used to say silver is
06:00poor spent gold and who has left the feeling left out in gold rally are now
06:06are now constructing with silver silver is having a true demand
06:10money physical side investment demand and also industrial demand has been
06:13continuously rising in last three four years with the EV or clean energy so one
06:18side supply deficit is that other side the industrial demand has removed that is
06:22why the squeeze has been created and now prices has rallied the seen the last
06:28level of 1980 or 2011 where we have seen 50 dollars so I think unless and until this
06:33squeeze doesn't clear out I think prices might immediate contest around 50 to 60 dollars
06:42so but overall thing maybe around 75 dollars but as an investor this is not the right time to get in
06:49because already prices has doubled in last one year period all right great advice Ajay thanks so much for
06:55joining us and we'll continue to track that heady rise on the precious metals that's the breaking news for
07:00you this morning let me also now welcome in Jalendra Vatnagar our chief analyst and
07:04editor of markets Shell it is Friday we've had a pretty decent week just a few days
07:10left now tomorrow Dhanteras and then Diwali on Tuesday and Mahurat on Tuesday
07:14what's the setup looking like this morning and is it going to be all about
07:17earnings or all about trade tensions
07:21good morning Abha and as you very lightly said it's Friday thank God for it a wonderful rally
07:29on the nifty a thousand points is what we've added over the last in the last 11 sessions in October now
07:39what is really interesting is that reliance has started to kick in at a time when we are headed
07:43towards an all-time high so reliance has about eight percent weightage in the market yesterday it rose from
07:51its 200-day moving average and many other stocks are showing signs of very strong breakouts so this
07:58rally will continue and most likely we'll see a dip today because ahead of Friday you know people
08:04don't want to take extended positions and it's a holiday as well so that's the broader structure
08:09bank nifty is in a kissing distance of an all-time high so that's their reliance is moving and FMCG
08:18stocks have started to show signs of gains and that's the reason why I'm a little cautious at
08:24these levels FMCG is a defensive sector and money moving that side shows that profit booking is
08:30happening and people are taking conservative positions in stocks that have been beaten down
08:36so IT remember I told you last week this is going to be a very nice long trade and this is what is
08:43happening Nippon India ITB's ETF is the thing to buy on Dhan Terrace rather than gold and silver Abha
08:52all right Shail thanks for that and yes you did mention it let me bring Mayuresh in as well
08:58Mayuresh good morning good to have you with us let me first get your strategy as well you've
09:03you heard of course what Shail saying about the setup we're just counting down to the opening bell
09:08how are you viewing the markets this month no constructive morning to you as well and therefore
09:13I think results have been encouraging so far whether it be banks IT companies which were supposed
09:19to be lagars in this market and therefore I think the start to the earning season has been good but
09:24I think the real expectation is that Q3 Q4 will be even better so yeah remain constructive
09:28all right in fact we will bring you all the latest on earnings we've got whole host of stocks that will
09:34be in focus we've got the IT majors INFI and Wipro which are actually down overnight on the global
09:40index one and a half percent is what we're looking at in pre-open CIE auto was up in the sense Q2 profit
09:47was up about 10 percent so from the broader markets we've got a CIE I'll pull up a few others for you
09:53even though we're just waiting for opening bell so perhaps I'll do it right after that we've got Z that's
09:57reported earnings terrible earnings actually coming in on Z entertainment okay there's the opening bell
10:03nifty 50 down just a touch we were expecting it to be pretty quiet this morning no major action
10:08focus continues to be on earnings right now nifty bank is seeing a touch of a dip this morning right
10:14now IT is the one that's down over a percent we'll talk about those IT earnings lots to talk about
10:19there and now of course we've seen pretty much all of the five majors report their set of numbers as
10:24well as outlook and guidance we've also heard from them on the impact of AI on hiring and the visa
10:30etc and so on okay on the gainers list reliance ahead of earnings half a percent up steady geofin is
10:37also half a percent up Asian paints is looking good this morning so that one's actually trending higher
10:42just trying to track if there's any trigger point coming in there Aisha is back in the green so some
10:47amount of action picking up there of course we've seen auto on a roll but IT that's where the heavy
10:53selling is coming in at CL tech probably some profit booking Wipro is down almost four percent
10:59emphasis down a little over one percent Adani trend some of the others on the downside as well let's
11:04pull up some of the other earnings related counters let's pull up science Q2 profit was down almost 30
11:10percent that's from the broader markets of course we've got Z that reported earnings we've got geofinancials
11:17profits kind of steady but revenue was up about 41 percent that's science on earnings reaction that Z
11:23down three percent not a good set of numbers coming in there let's pull up geofin of course
11:29it's already trending higher we've got kajaria ceramics a net income up 58 percent let's see
11:36which one we pull up next there you go geofin steady post earnings we've got kajaria moving
11:41LTI mine tree also Q2 net income up about 12 percent that's a beat on estimates let's pull
11:47up LTI mine tree and see how that one's reacting should see a reaction there up about a percent or
11:52so Punjab and Sindh bank net income up 23 percent let's pull that one up as well and just see if we're
11:58seeing a reaction coming in they're just running through some of these earnings for you and then
12:01of course we'll talk about IT in a little bit more detail there you have it Punjab and Sindh up about
12:07two percent or so Mahirish got to come to you on the IT majors Wipro and Infosys first specifically
12:13of course because it reported yesterday and it may seem like Wipro is perhaps the slowest mover of
12:19the lot but its outlook wasn't all that weak what are you making of the reaction from the markets and
12:24the overall setup within the IT pack now that all five majors have reported earnings well I think it
12:30was a decent set for the IT majors for Wipro in particular I think the expectation in terms of IT
12:36services I think their guidance still continues to languish the overall year estimates and therefore
12:42I think the expectation in terms of numbers picking up and showing some amount of stability for
12:47one part but actually that's the missing piece for Wipro in case you have heard about AI announcements
12:52for Infosys there is a guidance change but I think markets are looking up to Q3 Q4 in terms of client
12:58discretionary spending and therefore the impact in terms of order wins pricing and the margin impact
13:03okay so IT continues to be in focus we've also got let's pull up the silver ETF clearly continuing to
13:12move and at a frantic pace as we've seen pretty much all the week it's a consistent trend now we'll pull
13:18that up one for you Nippon silver is up close to three percent and Asian paints let's pull that one
13:23up as well on opening itself we saw a spike in that counter and it's continuing so looking quite active this
13:30morning Shail anything particular tracking on Asian paints this morning it's up about three and a half
13:35percent
13:35nothing much on Asian paints Abha I would imagine this is ahead of its earnings where things are not
13:49looking bright but the entire FMCG basket is doing really well in fact you know of the 19 stocks that
13:57we track FMCG index is the only one which is up so I would keep a very strong eye on Tata consumer
14:05Nestle Britannia and in particular Radiko Khaitan from the liquor stable these stocks are looking really
14:13really strong on the charts and of course Reliance going great guns despite the nifty down 37 points
14:19Reliance which has an eight percent weightage on the index is contributing 11 points in the positive
14:27that's something that's essential maybe Mayuresh can offer a view on Reliance from 200-day DMA it's now
14:38showing signs of strength
14:40Now Yuresh ahead of RIL's earnings
14:48No so again I think the retail run businesses should continue doing well I think you've already seen some
14:53element of respite in Q2 with JST rationalization the retail part of the business when it comes to
14:59Reliance retail should start picking up steam Jio should have a stable set of numbers as far as
15:04that upstream business is concerned that the expectations in terms of the deltas that they
15:09probably derive and the premium to Singapore GRMs as far as the defining part is concerned I think
15:14that should come back very very strongly as we head into the next calendar year the pet camp business
15:19stable as we speak and therefore the new energy businesses in a calibrated way should also aid
15:24other ways so it may be constructive for the long term you know okay what about Eternal I just want to
15:30bring that one up as well Mayuresh what did you make of earnings do you feel you know we did see
15:36while profit were narrowed expenses were also extremely high so do you see this as a sign of
15:42competition heating up I know that the market has been very bullish on Zomato now called Eternal
15:47so is it just profit booking that we're seeing today what's your outlook here
15:50so valuation still remains sky high so I think competition is one aspect to this entire business
15:57as well and they've expanded their dark stores quite meaningfully in terms of their targeted
16:03expansions over the last few quarters however I think the NOE jump was something that you would
16:08expect in Q3 it could be even higher with festivities coming around but I think the margin contraction that
16:13you've probably seen on the food delivery business I think that is something to monitor for quick
16:17commerce again competition is intense you might see NOV pump up that probably happens quite
16:23significantly but again how does profitability probably grow in terms of the valuation stack up
16:28very very expensive so I think money is being taken off the table as we speak fresh investments will
16:34need to wait obviously will it do well in terms of how the business prospects are volume wise yes
16:40from a price perspective I think much of it is priced in as far as numbers are concerned
16:44all right now the Indian IT sector has downplayed any major fallout from the draconian H1B visa regime
16:53announced by the US the five majors announced their earnings these past few days TCS Infosys Wipro
16:58HCL Tech and Tech Mahindra they've all said that the hundred thousand dollar visa charge will have
17:03limited or negligible impact on margins as most of their US staff are local hires all five firms have been
17:10clear on the issue that years of workforce localization in the US have cushioned the blow
17:15and they expect business continuity in their largest overseas market meanwhile Infosys and Wipro have
17:20also raised their revenue guidance for this fiscal now in other global news Commerce Minister Piyush
17:29Goyal last night lashed out at the Indian industry during a CIA conference accusing it of showing weakness
17:34and ridiculous responses on trade issues he said the sector can't demand open markets abroad while
17:40resisting competition at home listening your industry sometimes demonstrates so much weakness that even
17:49giving a minor quota one or two three percent of our consumption in India you'll make a big fuss and you
17:56even cry about it and I feel very disappointed when that happens it shows you in very poor light it shows
18:07weakness when I try to understand how will two or three percent imports hurt hundred percent of your
18:14domestic market demand or pricing I'm given very ridiculous responses and ultimately when we have to
18:26FTS we will need support from all sectors it cannot be that we want open markets everywhere but our
18:34industry live out when you open up the Indian market that can't work all right let's take a look at IT
18:44once again because the pressure really is building up there let's pull up Wipro for you and remember IT
18:50this year has had a really really terrible run down about four or five percent now we were looking at some
18:55pullback as Shell was also mentioning over the last couple of weeks but this morning post earnings
19:00Wipro particularly is is really just seeing a harsh reaction from the markets Shell yeah absolutely Abha but
19:13again these are you know knee-jerk reactions I don't think so it vitiates the investment thesis that people are
19:23getting into in the sense that stocks have correctly corrected sharply they are run by phenomenal
19:30management these are debt-free companies where the income is in dollars this is just a knee-jerk reaction
19:36it will be absorbed by the market lots of people and lots of fund managers have poured in thousands of
19:42crores rupees into IT positions and they should work I don't think so one swallow makes a summer so we'll just
19:49avoid you know getting a bit bearish on this kind of a negativity post earnings okay few other earnings
19:59reactions you've got CIE Auto let's pull that up for you we've got Suntech Realty also reacting to earnings
20:06let's pull up CIE and see where it is we are seeing some amount of reaction I think that chart is possibly
20:13frozen but it is definitely seeing some amount of reaction coming in if the auto is steady this
20:17morning the pressure is really on IT some amount of a negative reaction coming in on Z post earnings
20:24as well and a whole host of other broader market stocks that we continue to see moving on earnings
20:29this morning let's pull up JSW Infra as well I think we've got earnings reaction coming in there
20:36Suntech Realty is another one so a whole host of counters in the broader markets of course that we're
20:42continuing to track on earnings buzz and keep your eye on reliance because that's the other big one
20:48Gio Finn is seeing a good reaction to earnings just up about half a percent or so steady coming in there
20:53and the the big heavyweight RIL is the one that we're watching out for next now that most of the IT
21:00stocks or the big heavyweights at least have reported earnings Mayuresh closing comments before we wind up
21:06today no I think generally I think the RIL season has been reasonable so far and therefore I think
21:13there is some expectation that a few pockets might still remain soft but the positive indications are
21:19that Q3 Q4 the commentaries probably might just be looking up but because of GST rationalization
21:24the income tax cuts that you've probably seen and therefore consumption should make a very strong
21:28comeback private CAPEX is making a very very strong comeback as well government CAPEX expected to
21:33continue corporate debt to GDP remains low and therefore I think corporate earnings should start
21:38coming back very very strongly as we entered in the second hour we should get a base supporting factor
21:43for the market so any any kind of a tip that comes through a significant one will be even better
21:47we'll probably start accumulating good quality leadership stocks in these markets
21:51all right Mayuresh thanks so much for joining us uh Shell thanks as well uh that's where we leave it
21:56today do tune in for market closing at three o'clock thanks for watching
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