- 6 weeks ago
Silver has crossed levels close to $82 an ounce, a price that many technical analysts tracking the metal closely had not expected.
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00:00good morning and welcome to the business today's show this is the 9 a.m. show where we get you on
00:20the opening action of the day but first up let's take a look at what's hot in the corporate and
00:24the financial world silver smashes to the $80 per ounce barrier spikes to $82.67 before retreating
00:37on profit booking by investors the white metal has racked up gains of an incredible 182 percent
00:45this calendar year weaker dollar lower borrowing costs geopolitical uncertainties have all contributed
00:52to this rally countdown begins to the last three trading sessions of this year the asian markets
01:03have a mixed bag after a dull friday on the wall street as well the nifty has been seen holding
01:09its 26 000 mark in thin volume straight all eyes will be on coforge which is buying us-based
01:15and cora for 2.35 billion dollars and shipping stocks after government announces 45 000 crore
01:22rupees of ship building incentive scheme
01:25spotlight on defense stocks today as defense acquisition council is likely to approve the
01:33deal's worth 80 000 crore rupees in the meeting reports also indicate procurement of several
01:39100 medium-range surface-to-air missiles astra mark 2 air-to-air missiles precision-guided munitions
01:45and even airborne early warning systems are on the agenda
01:50it's been a record harvest in the primary market this year with the main board ipos raising an
01:59unprecedented 1.75 lakh crore rupees but in a bitter reality check for investors nearly half of the
02:05newly listed stocks are trading below their listing price this again raises concerns about valuations
02:11the auto market is all set to heat up in january with at least seven launches lined up maruti to
02:21venture into electric territory with evitara mahindra to revamp its flagship xuv 700
02:27renault duster to make a comeback and tata to facelift its mini blockbuster punch
02:33let's straight away talk about how the markets are going to be trading in this fresh and new week
02:45in fact the last trading week of 2025 we are now joined by shell but nagar the chief analyst and
02:50editor for markets at business today television shell give us a sense of what exactly are the markets
02:55looking at remember the holiday mood at wall street already set in with the friday mood sombering a
03:01little bit although after record high levels that were seen on s p 500 that we saw on friday this
03:07morning of course the asian markets also were trading on a mixed zone right now when we look at
03:12what the gift nifty has given way to the pre-open that is settled it's just indicating of you know
03:16flattish with a positive buyer start 21 points higher for the nifty at 26 063 let's look at how things
03:23are shaping up of course like we already mentioned in the headlines it's going to be the defense story
03:27that's going to be at the center of focus uh with the dac meeting today uh and therefore all those
03:33defense names will be in focus the likes of hal bel in fact the shipbuilding stocks will also be in
03:39focus let me go across to our guest now mr abhinash korak shakar market expert is now joining in
03:44uh with us warm welcome to you abhinash good to have you with us well first up help us understand
03:49how are you looking at the last trading week of 2025 this entire year has seen a lot of uncertainties
03:56that the markets have really um navigated through managing to still stay afloat by the end of the
04:02year even if not managing exorbitant returns for investors yeah good morning uh sakshi i think markets
04:09are going to be in a holiday mood i think volumes are going to be pretty less uh my sense is that again
04:16as i mentioned earlier on your shows it's going to be a stock because market the nifty or the sensex
04:21is going to remain in a very uh narrow range and i think markets are now clearly awaiting for the
04:26second week of january possibly for the q3 numbers so it will be again a data-driven stock specific
04:31market you'll see a lot of stock specific activity and i think some pre-budget rally will also begin
04:37because this time there are expectations that the budget this time could be offering some further
04:41concessions to the industry so i think uh you know probably in this week nothing great could happen
04:46i think uh some amount of value buying stock specific uh wise could happen the nifty could
04:51trade in a very narrow range i don't think you're going to see any big upside in the very short term
04:55but yes i think the dear uh i think uh point which is important is i think from the first week of
05:01january the market should be looking at the two three numbers and then uh some news flows you know from
05:05the pre-budget kind of expectation so net net i think one has to be stock specific that's the
05:10only way one can play in this market at least for the coming week absolutely shell is with us now
05:16shell good morning to you uh what are you looking at into the markets what's important for all the
05:20investors to track today well uh it's actually most of it has already been discussed i am looking at
05:29an overstretched metals index and an overstretched banking piece so any dips there or any profit there
05:37profit booking there is an opportunity again to get back into stocks like hindustan zinc hindustan
05:42copper the underlying metal is very strong and of course uh the energy space therefore bpcl hpcl and
05:50ril on the long side one word of caution the most popular trade in the world is silver
05:57everybody his mother her driver the gardener and most probably every single investor is on the long
06:07side it doesn't work that way one has to be very very cautious one has to be very very cautious let's
06:13discuss that avinash bringing you in into that conversation a whopping 182 percent of a return
06:19on silver prices it's shot up above anybody's imagination and any technical analyst also tracking
06:26silver very very closely could not have imagined these kind of levels of 82 dollars an ounce
06:31within 2025 silver has turned out to be the new gold how are you advising investors who are already
06:37buying silver amidst all that shortage and fomo no i think sakshi as uh shale rightly pointed out that
06:45you know when everybody starts buying the same uh commodity and at elevated levels then i think something
06:51is wrong and i think most technical analysts have pointed out that this is probably the first time
06:56silver has crossed a level which is beyond their expectations uh from a fundamental perspective
07:00silver is going to be in demand there's no doubt about it the structural opportunity for the next
07:05two to three years looks very strong but in the short term you know one can expect a reasonable profit
07:10correction i think there are going to be people who are going to book out their money so at these
07:14levels you know even if you want to buy silver etfs or you want to play directly on silver i think it
07:19would be a good idea for a reasonable correction to happen and i think that is very much possible
07:23so we have been telling our clients to not buy immediately uh silver etfs wait for some time
07:28i think you could definitely get a good entry point at that point maybe silver could be a risk
07:33reward maybe a 10 percent or little more than that could a correction could definitely happen and i think
07:38once that happens the markets would definitely get corrected and i think it's definitely looking
07:42very much possible at some point there would be a very deep correction and that would be a good time
07:47for long-term investors to chip in but not at these levels at these levels it's better to avoid
07:51what about those who are playing proxy with the stock market stocks favorite stocks like hindustan
07:56zinc on silver the stock is already rallied 51 percent this year most of it has come uh you know
08:02this move has come up in the last six months odd and also for copper which is also rallying at
08:07record high levels we are looking at hint copper now uh being a favorite of uh investors how are you
08:13looking at these metal stocks i think uh you know investors who have purchased this stock earlier and are
08:18sitting on profits the wise thing would that would be that at least some part of the profits should
08:23be uh you know booked out cash flow should be uh you know put out separately because you know even if
08:28you look at hindustan copper you know from 435 to almost uh you know 545 you know this rally has gone
08:35significantly fast in a very short period of time the same thing applies for hindustan zinc so
08:40you know at these levels fresh buying is definitely not advisable i think at least book out 25 to 30
08:45percent of your profits and stay invested numbers are going to be good but i think rally has happened
08:50very fast this rally has happened very fast four minutes four seconds to go before we look at the
08:55market opening our shell over to you for what all are you seeing at the opening tick today
09:00well 50 points higher on the nifty uh 83 points higher on nifty bank and the it index is half a percent
09:11higher uh we are looking into the monthly expiry for the nifty and other fno stops tomorrow so it's
09:20quite likely to be a lot of short covering remember last three days the nifty actually fell and tested
09:27the 21 day ema starting rally off the blocks hindustan copper most active counter 10 percent higher ladies
09:35and gentlemen 525 hindustan zinc 1.7 percent higher 648 coforge rvnl vedant and irfc are the other stocks
09:45that are moving up this is a combination of an overstretched metals trade and a incipient pre-budget
09:52rally that is happening in the market advanced decline ratios ladies and gentlemen uh even stevens
09:57954 shares in the green and 859 in the red if you look at how the indices are stacked up again even
10:05stevens out of 99 are in the green 10 are in the red nifty metals it financial services are in the green
10:12nifty now barely uh about 20 points higher let me just mark the all-time highs for the market metals
10:20metals and metals national aluminium 310 hindalko 881 vedant 605 and a good one aisha motors please
10:29keep an eye out on this one mcx no surprise here craftsman automation and of course titan so this is
10:36a quasi metal pure metal play that's playing out as a global trade liquidity trade on the last street as
10:45well absolutely you rightly pointed out uh shell metals are on fire at this point in time now you
10:50look at the mcx silver copper is it a lifetime high viewers the silver is at two lakh forty seven
10:56thousand one ninety four rupees per kilogram versus two lakh thirty nine thousand seven eighty seven
11:01rupees per kilogram that was seen on friday copper is now at a new high of thirteen hundred fifty four
11:07rupees per kilogram whereas gold now nudges at one lakh forty thousand rupees per ten grams on the mcx it's
11:14clearly precious metals along with base metals now taking uh the center stage right now avinashi coming
11:21back to you how are you looking at this entire space of precious metals base metals what would be the
11:26strategy going into 2026 for investors no i think uh given the choices of gold silver and copper i think
11:34gold definitely appears to be the most stable i think from a stock market perspective i think one should
11:40look at the gold finance companies you know because these are the companies which would derive the maximum
11:44advantage uh my sense is mathur finance manapuram finance could be properly looked upon as proxies
11:50for the gold finance uh you know gold uh commodity my sense is that this price will increase and
11:55definitely that is going to be uh very strongly reflected into their financials and plus it's a
12:00asset uh you know kind of strong asset kind of business very little bad debts to that extent i
12:06think manapuram can be accumulated even mathur from a longer term perspective f527 looks quite positive
12:11so we have been telling our clients to actually look at gold finance companies because here the
12:16overall tailwinds are very positive and i think the market has also uh been very well developed by the
12:21psu banks expressively uh you know somebody like sbi or maybe a canara bank or a bank of arona
12:28definitely i think worthwhile you know accumulating these stocks even at the current
12:32absolutely i mean actually what would you say on vedanta which is one this bid for graphite vanadium
12:37mining block now uh most of the brokerage houses are penciling this as a strategic entry into critical
12:42and battery metals as well a long-term positive they say for the company as it aligns with ev and
12:47energy transition themes how would you look at vedanta right now no i think around 600 uh one can look
12:53at it but one must also remember the fact that you know they've got the nclt approval for the demager
12:59so very soon and uh vedanta is going to be uh you know broken up into five separate companies
13:04so to that extent i think you know this corporate development also will play out so yes i think
13:08around 600 if you can get the stock stay invested for the next 12 to 15 months you could see a lot
13:13of action you know in the vedanta stock i think most we will have to see how each company does but
13:19definitely at the current level around 600 it could be equivalent fantastic uh all right auto space as
13:26shell you had pointed out that space is also buzzing uh what are the stocks that are you know gathering pace
13:32right now uh sakshi i would just focus on one uh which is uh aisha motors a fresh breakout uh on that one
13:45plus i'll keep an eye out on maruti these are the two stocks that i have in mind on the long side
13:54uh maruti uh just flat 16 600 for you aisha motors 73 32 uh galloping ahead on a fresh record high i would
14:05also pay a lot of attention to the small mid cap stocks in the pharma sector uh in particular glenmark
14:11in particular ipka in particular uh granules lots of good positive indications coming in from that space
14:21sakshi all right let's also focus on the defense pack particularly the public sector companies there
14:28that will be in spotlight remember the defense acquisition council is all set to meet later today
14:32and according to many reports uh this may approve the deals as for as much as 80 000 crore rupees and
14:39the meeting which will be chaired by defense minister rajan singh is likely to fast track several key
14:44procurement proposals including the emergency purchases as well the navy has already flagged an urgent
14:50requirement for medium range surface to air missiles developed jointly by drdo and manufactured
14:56by bharat dynamics remember the indian air force is also likely to seek emergency clearance for
15:02the astra mark ii air-to-air missile and for more on this we are also now joined by india today
15:08televisions uh shivani sharma shivani uh help us understand with the broad agenda of the dsc meeting
15:14today and of course which are the companies that are going to be in focus is something that we will
15:19discuss with both abhinash and shell but help us understand for the defense sector what does it mean
15:24shakshi this happens to be the last defense acquisition council meeting and definitely there
15:29are big ticket deals that will be approved and as you were also mentioning that it's expected that
15:34around 80 000 crore rupees worth of projects might be approved the focus has been to improve the air
15:41defenses of the system to improve the enhance these systems like drones and there are multiple demands of the
15:48services including the army navy and the air force so for them the emergency procurements can be done
15:54after these approvals so we it's been expected that mrsam that is being indigenously developed that
16:01particular system and astra mark ii these will be the on the agenda i must also tell you sakshi there are
16:08around 20 points in this defense acquisition council meeting that are to be approved today so we can
16:15understand that this is a very important one because this is the one which is happening at the end of
16:20the year to fast track the emergency procurements within the armed forces absolutely thanks a lot
16:26shivani for all that uh virajdi coming to you now um you know important meeting there the last one as
16:31shivani just point out but definitely some of the emergency clearances that could be pointed out for navy
16:36and for the air force as well how would you look at the opportunities uh that this presents to the
16:41defense companies and for investors no i think uh this is a very important meeting because uh emergency
16:47uh you know procurements are going to be finalized and i think you know in this respect as far as the
16:52surface to air missiles are concerned barran dynamics has a significant edge so you could see a lot of
16:58action here but i think uh you know even the marine companies like mazgav dock or pochin shipyard you know
17:03these are also companies which are going to benefit so i think probably you know once the formal
17:07announcements comes in you'll see a stock specific upside but overall the defense space looks
17:11interesting we are hopeful that in the budget also a lot of make in india initiatives are going to be
17:16pushed out so you could definitely look at even other stocks like hl barat electronics but in this
17:21respect i think it would be bar dynamics and some of the marine uh players which i mentioned which are
17:26going to be in focus today once the formal announcements comes out okay so bdl as well as some of the shipbuilding
17:32companies to be in focus but avinash would you say for those who have stayed away from defense
17:36because for a large part of 2025 we didn't see much of an action there uh but as a pre-budget
17:42positioning it will be a good time to invest in defense stocks right now yeah i think uh my sense
17:47is you know most of the defense companies uh despite the fact have not performed in 2025 uh you know these
17:54are long-term structural beds for the next two to three years and i think orders are coming in almost
17:59every second month and the you know the make in india policy is getting more and more aggressive so i
18:03think ocean shipyard at the current levels uh something like a hl or a bharat electronics
18:09would definitely be accumulated not only from a budget perspective but for the next 12 to 15 months
18:14absolutely and for the shipping stocks remember viewers that the government has also notified
18:19guidelines for shipbuilding assistance development schemes with 44 700 crore rupees of an outlay coming
18:24in there so that is an added on uh to what avinash d does mention that for the shipbuilding space will
18:29be important to track there as well let's quickly go to uh shell for uh his last comment uh before
18:34we shut up uh for the as far as that this morning edition is concerned um shell on the defense story
18:40what else do we expect going forward
18:46well uh uh sakshi what's really happening is a pre-budget lineup yeah so everything is moving in the
18:53psu segments uh look at uh the metal space so hind copper and uh and even railways yeah as also steel
19:03authority uh look at the psu banking setup that's really really strong uh and therefore defense is now
19:11moving up look at the railway space and these are beaten down beyond recognition so railways is something
19:18that i'm critically long on in terms of the sheer thought process uh psu banks on dips metals on dips
19:26and of course uh the entire gamut of uh small cap and mid cap farmer sakshi okay uh abhinash d is
19:34railways also coming onto your radar as well uh right ahead of the budget then a month to go there
19:39well i think railways also is going to be a buzzing sector at least for the near term before the budget i
19:44think as uh shale pointed out you know wagon manufacturers or for that reason even uh electric
19:49transmission players like rvnl uh i think uh definitely there could be a lot of activity in
19:55companies like pitagar texmacbook rupiter wagons rvnl i would say that you know if somebody has a
20:01slightly higher risk appetite one can definitely play on these companies texmacbook looks very
20:05attractive i think it's a beaten down stock but a very strong order book of almost 4 000 odd crores
20:10and uh i think if there is another big large wagon order announced in the budget that could possibly
20:15mean a lot of fresh business for all these wagon companies absolutely i mean before we let you go
20:21for the new year 2026 any key stock or stocks that you've picked out for investors so i think see
20:27uh within the uh you know wagon manufacturers we are positive on jupiter wagons uh we feel that the
20:33stock has been beaten down very badly but fundamentals remain very strong uh and from the hospitality space
20:39you know companies like indian hotels lemon tree i think these can also be accumulated because
20:44this is going to be a very strong quarter for the six month period october to march and yes from the
20:48psu bank something like a bank of boroda canara bank uh sbi i think you know banking also is going
20:54to be outperforming in the next six to twelve months so i think you've got to pick the entire psu focus
20:59the psu space do you think that will have a comeback in the new year 2026 i think it should because
21:05uh numbers are good i think the visibility of earnings is good so i think you know within that
21:10if you talk about uh maybe the uh you know the construction companies something like an earcon or
21:15even like an npcc these are also very strong structural bets which can be built upon but the
21:19psu banking space actually looks very attractive so here i think uh you know you could definitely
21:24expect a decent upside in the next six to twelve months fantastic okay uh well thank you so much
21:31then avinash ji for being with us on the program and helping us with all your insights as far as the
21:35markets are concerned here is also wishing you a fantastic upcoming new year that's 2026 and may
21:41turn out to be an extremely profitable one for you and for your clients and a you know a joyous one for
21:46you and for your loved ones as well so thank you so much of course we will be catching up more often
21:51in the new year to seek more insights on the markets also uh you know from here for you
21:58all right viewers time for a short break now but don't forget to tune in back again at
22:023 p.m for the market closing action with me
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