00:00Best mining stock boom in 50 years is crushing the S&P 500, a once-in-a-generation trade.
00:06Mining stocks are enjoying a blockbuster year on the back of a record rally in precious metals,
00:11with several names posting triple-digit gains and crushing even the most growth-linked AI stocks.
00:18And analysts say the run is far from over.
00:21Triple-digit returns in silver and gold mining exchange-traded funds have reawakened the long-dominant commodity sector
00:29with industry experts calling it the strongest precious metals bull market in a half century.
00:35According to 22V research analyst Colin Fenton,
00:39quote, despite the daily new price highs in gold, silver, and other markets,
00:44it's not too late for investors who need to boost portfolio performance in the fourth quarter of 2025
00:50to get involved or re-involved in commodities, end quote.
00:54The expert described it as a, quote, once-in-a-generation, end quote,
00:58opportunity for investors in mining stocks.
01:01Few sectors have outperformed, like precious metals this year.
01:04The S&P 500 gold shares, or ticker GLD, which we often look at here on this program,
01:09is up 43% year-to-day, while its iShares Silver Trust SLV has climbed 52%.
01:15Both ETFs have beaten over 94% of the S&P 500 constituents.
01:20But it's the miners where returns are exploding.
01:24The VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF, that's GDXJ, has skyrocketed 110%,
01:31while the VanEck Gold Miners GDX is up 106%.
01:35Meanwhile, the Global X Silver Miners ETF, SIL, has gained 105%.
01:40Each has outperformed 99% of S&P 500 names.
01:45Newmont, ticker NEM, the world's largest gold miner and one of Lyon's favorite stocks,
01:52has surged 125% year-to-date, joining a short list of S&P 500 stocks with triple-digit gains,
01:58including Robinhood, Palantir, Seagate, and AppLovin.
02:02All of those stocks we are familiar with here.
02:05AppLovin making people wealthy around these parts.
02:09Fenton attributes this outperformance to operating leverage, quote,
02:12so long as commodity prices persist in a bull market,
02:16diversified baskets of affiliated producers' shares will tend to post a 2 to 3x higher price return
02:24on the underlying commodity, end quote.
02:26The ratio of GDX's 118.9% return to gold's 37.9% in 2025.
02:33That reflects a 3.2 times multiple.
02:37Industrial metals are not far behind.
02:40The Global X Copper Miners ETF COPX is up 42% year-to-date.
02:44That's beating 93% of S&P 500, of the S&P 500, excuse me.
02:49Shares of Antofagasta, that's ticker A-N-F-G-F.
02:55I probably butchered the name and I'm sorry about that.
02:57Viewed by 22V as a global bellwether, they're up 52% and outformed 95% of the index.
03:04Now, energy stocks, which we've talked about quite a bit here, especially with some of
03:09the guests, they've been quite outperformers.
03:11Oil names have also delivered big.
03:13CVI, the standout, 88% year-to-date return, outperforming 99% of the S&P.
03:19Marathon Petroleum MPC, that's up 37%.
03:23Valero, VLO, climbed 39%.
03:25And HF Sinclair, ticker D-I-N-O, has surged 51%.
03:30Geopolitical tensions continue to fuel the case for energy stocks.
03:35Renewed Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries and Moscow's diesel export curbs have raised
03:41concerns, reinforcing oil's role as a geopolitical hedge.
03:44Independent U.S. natural gas producers also saw strong gains through mid-year, but were
03:49hit by a drawdown driven by coal fuel switching policies.
03:54The Trump administration delayed planned coal plant retirements in Michigan, Maryland,
03:59and Arizona, temporarily undercutting the natural gas demand.
04:03We actually discussed this on the Happy Hour yesterday, wondering if there's going to be
04:07any type of bump up there in natural gas and if that makes it tradable for us.
04:12Antero Resources, ticker AR, Range Resources, ticker RRC, and Private Firm Expand Energy Core,
04:19ticker EXE, saw their year-to-date gains evaporate.
04:22As of late September, EXE is up just 1%, RRC is down 1%, and AR is off by 5%.
04:30EQT Corp, ticker EQT, however, never slipped into negative territory and is now up 11% year-to-date.
04:37Fenton said the drawdown appears to have ended on August 19th, and that recent gain suggests
04:42a new entry point for investors who missed the initial rally in 2024.
04:46According to 22V's framework, the global commodity cycle likely began in 2024, placing us in
04:54a year-to-date of a typical five-year bull run.
04:57Historically, these cycles start with precious metals, followed by industrial metals, and
05:02finally, energy.
05:04Fenton emphasized that unlike previous cycles, today's dynamics favor refined products, electricity,
05:09and natural gas over crude oil.
05:11Quote, we want to stay vigilantly focused on investment opportunities in the IPPs, the
05:17natural gas producers, and copper and silver miners, and vendors of electrical equipment.
05:21End quote.
05:22If 22V's target materialized $4,000 for gold, $50 for silver, and $1,100 for copper in the
05:29first half of 2026, this cycle could end up being one of the most profitable commodities
05:34rallies in the modern era.
05:37Lion, I know you have to be excited about this.
05:39You have literally been pounding the table, pounding the table on some of these metals,
05:45in particularly gold and silver.
05:48So, really good stuff there.
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