00:00Well, Russia has lost momentum. I'm not of a school of thought that Ukraine is winning. It's not.
00:05I mean, it's doing better than it was two months ago. It doesn't mean that it doesn't, cannot change. It
00:10can.
00:12In my view, which once again, I keep reminding myself that I was wrong half an hour before the invasion
00:18was announced,
00:20the special military operation was announced, Putin is an escalator.
00:24When things are not going in his direction, he actually sort of turns the table on you and does something
00:29that annuls all the previous issues of that moment.
00:36And there's sort of the counting starts in you. So if there is an escalation, we're going to count from
00:41that moment of escalation,
00:43not whatever happened before that. Who cares? So that's my reading.
00:48But it's hypothetical. It doesn't mean that Putin is not a clever man because he is or certainly used to
00:56be and very kind of as I used to call him.
00:58He was a very he's a gambler, but he's a careful gambler. I mean, war in Ukraine was not a
01:03careful gamble.
01:04It actually was a very not careful gamble. But before that, he always knew how much he could take.
01:10So he would he would he would kind of bite as much as he could chew, which obviously in February
01:1622 turned out not to be the case.
01:19So he may still have some moves and kind of step back and and decide on further strategy.
01:27But at this point, it seems to me that things not do not go in his in his favor if
01:33he's in any of his boxed in or cornered.
01:36He is going to fight more rather than fight less.
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