What Could the Texans’ Red Zone Capacity Mean in the Long Run?

KILT-AM / SportsRadio 610

ITL also digs into what the Texans’ Red Zone capacity actually gets you long term

Transcript

00:00but he's the Texans in the red zone.

00:01Because right now, or at least starting the season,

00:04they were atrocious in the red zone.

00:07I think they've improved to a place where I would call them mediocre,

00:11John Lopez.

00:12How would you term that?

00:13Do you think that's fair?

00:14Of late, yes.

00:16Of late, mediocre.

00:17Last couple of games, I believe they've been 50% in the red zone,

00:20which, you know, at least statistically, you go, all right, that's better.

00:25But watching it, you feel the impact of, damn,

00:28this is not as effective as it should be.

00:30And the question I've been asking myself,

00:32especially now that you look at the Texans and you go,

00:34they're in the playoff position.

00:36They're where you wanted them to be to start the season

00:38with the opportunity to win the division

00:40and with a defense that's good enough to go and win everything.

00:44I think that there's unequivocally,

00:46you're playing with a defense that is capable of winning a Super Bowl,

00:49point-blank period, end of discussion.

00:51And so I keep asking myself, especially as we look at this offense

00:55and we go, okay, this is the side where C.J. Stroud will constantly tell us

00:58we need to do better and add in.

01:01What does a mediocre red zone capability get you?

01:04Like, how far does that get you as a team?

01:07See, to me, it's not so much being mediocre in the red zone

01:10as much as it's how often do you get into the red zone.

01:14And I think that's something that maybe might come back to haunt the Texans,

01:21if anything does.

01:21I mean, you said it, I've said it, we all believe it now.

01:25You know, you have a championship-level defense,

01:27you have a quarterback who's starting to clearly buy in

01:29to how they do offense, but they don't get a lot of possessions.

01:34You know, because they run the ball so much,

01:37they tend to take longer, they're a big-time possession team

01:39when things are going well.

01:41So you're only going to get a few red zone opportunities

01:44when you're like that.

01:45Sure.

01:46You're not going to be lighting it up and making big plays

01:48and in there, you know, five, six times.

01:50You're going to be in there three times, maybe.

01:53Four times.

01:53This last time, yeah.

01:55But, you know, they really have only been in the end zone

01:58like three or four times at the most in most games.

02:00So it's not so much that because you're not getting in as often.

02:05I think you have to be better than mediocre.

02:07Yeah, that's what I was going to say is like the tough part about it

02:10is the way that they are built and they decided to build themselves

02:13in such a way.

02:14You can't just be like, well, we're going to go and have more possessions

02:16that we go and get to the red zone.

02:18That's not how they're built.

02:19No.

02:19They don't quick strike down the field necessarily

02:22unless the play is broken and you're playing backyard football.

02:26They're not getting explosive runs.

02:28They're not built to do that either.

02:30They are a matriculate your way down the field type offense.

02:33So the times, as you mentioned, rightfully,

02:35the few times they get in the red zone, rather,

02:37they need to be more efficient.

02:38And as of right now, do you think you could guess

02:41what their red zone percentage is efficiency-wise for the season?

02:44I feel it's still low.

02:47I'll say, so what is 50% of the last two games?

02:51Yeah.

02:51I'm going to say 38%.

02:5344% in the red zone.

02:57Not great.

02:58Not great.

02:58But better than I thought.

02:59Can I take you to the 2024, some 2024 playoff teams?

03:03Because this is what I'm thinking of.

03:04It's like, how far can you go with this?

03:07Comparing to, let's say, last year's Kansas City Chiefs team, right?

03:10Obviously a Super Bowl contender, or a Super Bowl participant

03:13is what I was trying to say.

03:15When it came to the red zone, 53.8, so 54%.

03:19And they didn't get in there more often.

03:20Right?

03:21And they got in there a lot more frequently, right?

03:23The Baltimore Ravens of last year, you know,

03:25they end up tripping over a lot of times.

03:27But as an offense, pretty damn good.

03:3074% efficiency in the red zone.

03:3374?

03:34Detroit Lions.

03:35You want to think about them as a team?

03:37Maybe a little bit of a team that runs the football a little bit.

03:3969% in the red zone.

03:42Yeah, that's what we're talking about.

03:45Eagles of last year.

03:46Even the Eagles of last year, right?

03:47They could grind things out.

03:48The offense, we've talked about it even today.

03:50Offense, not always all that.

03:5257% in the red zone.

03:55Rams of last year, 52%.

03:58The Bills of last year, 72%.

04:00Like, think of the stratification that you're seeing there.

04:02The really great ones are getting in there, you know,

04:05three out of four times they're getting into the end zone.

04:08And even the teams that you go, all right, they're pretty good teams.

04:12They're getting in there at least, you know, two out of every four times,

04:16except they're not going four times.

04:17They're going six times in a game.

04:20This is something that has to change if you want to have, like,

04:23the constant battle of, all right, we just need to win a game.

04:26That's cool.

04:26But now that you're in a place where the floor feels like the playoffs,

04:30if you want to maximize the season and not validate all the quotes that.

04:34They have to 55 or better.

04:35I think so.

04:36Like, it just needs to be, and to be fair,

04:39the number is always going to be dragged down by the beginning of the season.

04:41So maybe there needs to be an accounting where.

04:44Let's say 55 from.

04:45From here on.

04:46Yes.

04:46But as of right now, are you confident that they can do that?

04:48And that's the question that I have.

04:50I'm really not.

04:51I'm more confident.

04:53I'm not like I was at the beginning of the year when they were just talking

04:56about, you know, tripping over yourself.

04:58I mean, they couldn't do anything right.

05:00And part of the reason I'm a little more confident but not to that degree is I

05:05thought some of their red zone play calls, you know, give Nick Kaley a little

05:09credit, have been okay lately.

05:12I think the little pass to Woody Marks was terrific.

05:16That ended up being a touchdown.

05:18I have been having a hard time.

05:19I've been watching that playback a lot this morning even.

05:22And I can't tell if that was, like, designed to be open in that way.

05:25I think it was an option.

05:26Of course, it was a circumstance that happened.

05:27The way I looked at it was an option.

05:29When he saw that linebacker coming.

05:31Nick Bolton in that instance.

05:32Yes.

05:32He immediately leaked out behind him, which you're taught to do as a receiver.

05:36You know that.

05:36You played the position back in the day.

05:38You know, you're taught.

05:39I like that you're giving me credit to, like, have an NFL understanding of the

05:43position.

05:43No, Reggie, you played that position.

05:45But you don't have to have an NFL understanding.

05:47High schoolers do this.

05:48You know, so I think I'll give them credit for that one.

05:50The one play that just, we didn't talk about this at all.

05:54And I don't know if it was in the red zone, but it was a crucial third down call.

05:58I could just see Bobby Slowick calling the play on the sideline.

06:03You called an end-to-round 150-pound Jalen Knoll on a third and got to have it.

06:09Was that in the red zone?

06:10It was close.

06:11I don't think that you were in the red zone on that play.

06:14But you know which one I'm talking about?

06:15Yeah.

06:16And I was like, oh, boy, Bobby.

06:17Because then he'd get crushed.

06:18He got crushed.

06:19Oh, that was the one where Troy Aikman said, you're not going to get a better form tackle

06:25than this.

06:25Yeah, yeah, yeah.

06:26Because he lifted him up and drove him like four yards back.

06:29Yeah.

06:30I was like, why are you?

06:31It's okay to call an end-around with Nico Collins.

06:34You know, you scored on that one.

06:36He's, you know, seven feet tall and 280 pounds or whatever he is.

06:39But you had Jalen Knoll on an end-around.

06:43I was like, oh, boy.

06:44So a little more confident with the creativity, but not super confident.

06:48And I will give them credit.

06:49Like, they did have one play that I thought was a really good red zone play in particular.

06:54And it was a touchdown to Dolan Schultz.

06:56Except, you know.

06:58Mental error.

06:59Yeah, you have mental error.

07:01Which, honestly, I do wonder how much of that you put on CJ, actually.

07:04Because Jalen Knoll is going and getting set.

07:06But as Jalen Knoll is in his motion, CJ is already.

07:10You know, he's already calling for the ball to be snapped.

07:14I do wonder if he needs to make sure that his guy goes and gets set before having that happen.

07:19That's one of those kind of timing things.

07:21And maybe that just needs to be worked out.

07:22But that's also another portion of this red zone conversation.

07:25Is you just have to be more efficient.

07:27Not just in your play calling and in scoring it.

07:30Because, you know, of what we're talking about.

07:32You can't afford to be shooting yourself in the foot.

07:34And it feels like more often than not, when they do shoot themselves in the foot, it is in the red zone.

07:39It's when it's nut-cutting time.

07:41And now you're stepping back and making a longer field goal.

07:44Or taking yourself out of an opportunity to score.

07:46And giving yourself a field goal chance.

07:48Substituting three for seven.

07:49These are the things that are going to hold you back if you don't get them together.

07:52It was third and two at the 26.

07:55When they gave the little.

07:56I say end around.

07:57He was actually in the backfield.

07:58But it was kind of an end around action.

07:59Yeah, he motioned into the backfield.

08:00And then they handed the ball off to him.

08:02And just got carried four yards backwards.

08:05I was like, I probably could have taken that one back.

08:07No question.

08:08Yeah, so I think that this is just point-blank period.

08:1244% on the season is not good enough.

08:14Now, I think that they know that and they're getting better.

08:16But even over the last few weeks, it's 50.

08:17And if you're looking at the teams that have been successful, at least even just last year,

08:22they were more effective in that place.

08:24And for the teams that were less effective of those good teams, they got in there more.

08:30It just has to be significantly better.

08:32And they know that, but it's the little things that are going to make a big difference.

08:36And last thing on this, they're not going to get a lot more chances.

08:39We've heard D'Amico.

08:39We've heard CJ Stroud.

08:41Obviously, we'll hear and have heard from Nick Cayley.

08:44They're not changing the way they do things.

08:46So, they're still going to be a time of possession first type offense.

08:50So, they're not going to get a lot of chances.

08:51They have to make the most of them and they have to be over 50%.

08:53Yeah, and to the question, how far is mediocre red zone going to take you?

08:57Probably to a division round loss if you're not careful.

09:00I would have to agree.

09:01Right?

09:02And so, you absolutely need to get this together.

09:04If not sooner.

09:04I mean, right now, if the playoffs ended, you're at New England in the wild.

09:09Did you hear what Aqib Tlaib was talking about?

09:10He's like, the New England.

09:11They're going to get popped.

09:12Yeah, he's like, we're doing a lot there.

09:14We're doing a lot there.

09:15Also, we're not giving nearly enough credit to just how good this defense is.

09:19And also, maybe giving a lot of credit to Drake May, who, mind you, has been incredible,

09:23has not been in the playoffs.

09:24And we understand that being a different beast.

09:26I appreciate you, Aqib Tlaib, but I feel like you might be wilding.

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