Chiefs vs. Texans: Sunday Night Football Best Bets

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00:00Let's get down to it, though.

00:01We've got the Chiefs and the Texans

00:03on Sunday night football.

00:05This is a rare one.

00:07What I mean by that is

00:08the conversation

00:10couldn't match the spread less.

00:15The conversation is

00:16the Chiefs,

00:18I mean, how are they ever going to score the football?

00:20How?

00:21Texans' defense is beyond humming.

00:23It's the best in football.

00:24And Kansas City is down.

00:26Not one, not two, but three offensive linemen.

00:28The Chiefs are going to have to hope and pray

00:31that by some miracle they win this game.

00:33Three-and-a-half-point favorite.

00:34The hook's never disappeared.

00:36Not once has that hook disappeared.

00:39So, clearly, Joe,

00:41there's belief out there somewhere

00:42that Kansas City will do their part

00:44in this football game.

00:45What are you expecting on Sunday night?

00:47Do what they always do.

00:49Beat the Texans.

00:50You know, now, the spread,

00:52and you and I have been on this team

00:54in back-to-back, so let's not forget,

00:56they played in the playoff loss last year,

00:58right?

01:00Where they missed the field goal.

01:01Is that what happened?

01:03They missed the field goal.

01:04They got the field goal blocked to cover.

01:06The Texans?

01:07Yeah.

01:07Oh, well, that was my best bet by far.

01:10Bet it at eight-and-a-half.

01:11I think it went up to nine-and-a-half.

01:12And the kid missed the field goal.

01:14There was a safety.

01:14There was a missed extra point.

01:15Right, something like that.

01:16Okay.

01:17It finished nine.

01:18It was a very frustrating football game.

01:20Long story short.

01:21And then they lost the game by eight points

01:23in the regular season.

01:24In the game, that tank down goes down.

01:26Remember, he catches the touchdown pass.

01:28Yeah.

01:29Right?

01:29Really rattled their cage.

01:30Here's what I know.

01:32I think this game's a rocket ship.

01:34I think Kansas City has the weapons,

01:36even minus three offense alignment,

01:38to exploit that defense over the top.

01:41Playing at home,

01:42I think they'll do what they always do.

01:44And I'm still not sold on C.J. Stroud

01:47in this passing attack.

01:48Outside of Nico Collins,

01:49they're a one-trick pony.

01:51Sorry.

01:51I know Hutchinson has come on.

01:53Higgins, that's all well and good.

01:55But this is not by far an elite wide receiver core.

01:58Rasheed Rice, Xavier Worthy, Marquise Brown.

02:02I think they're going to, listen,

02:04Stingley can only cover one guy.

02:06It's true.

02:07Right?

02:07So, figure him on Rice.

02:09I think it's a big day for Worthy.

02:10Could be a big day for Kelsey underneath.

02:13I think Mahomes could throw for potentially 250,

02:15275 in this game.

02:17And I think they win the,

02:18I don't want to say convincingly,

02:20but seven or more,

02:21I think they win it by.

02:23So,

02:23I want to say that

02:26we do the target player prop segment

02:29on game time decisions on Wednesdays.

02:31And, you know,

02:32we try and figure out,

02:33hey, what are some props going to be?

02:35And this, that, and the third.

02:36And Isaac, you know what, man?

02:37You know what could be an interesting bet

02:38is Mahomes under one and a half passing touchdowns.

02:41You know how good the Texans are.

02:42Mahomes this year,

02:42we've talked about a boomer bust, right?

02:44He throws three or he throws one or fewer.

02:46And is he really going to get to three on this team?

02:49Well, as I was starting to try and piece that together

02:51for the show,

02:53there's some of the numbers we're out.

02:53It's such a big game.

02:56Minus 145

02:57under one and a half passing touchdowns.

03:00And this will sound crazy to people,

03:02but again,

03:03at least he's listened to me go nuts

03:05when a one and a half point favor

03:06should be a one and a half point dog.

03:08My best bet on this whole show

03:09is Mahomes over one and a half passing touchdowns.

03:11I don't care.

03:12Plus 115

03:13on Patrick Mahomes

03:15at home

03:15to throw two touchdowns.

03:17It's the most ridiculous thing I've ever seen.

03:19The Texans have allowed quarterbacks

03:21to throw two touchdowns on them.

03:22It's not like it's never happened.

03:24Of course, they're great.

03:25But you also

03:26have

03:27Patrick Mahomes

03:29in

03:31one of the biggest games

03:32he has played.

03:34Maybe the biggest

03:35in his regular season career.

03:37I mean, that's on the board, Joe.

03:39Right.

03:40So for me,

03:41I

03:41to get this at plus money,

03:44you have to remember

03:45their team total in this game

03:47is about 23 and a half or so.

03:48They're projected to score three touchdowns.

03:50But he can throw two of them

03:51and it could still not be this

03:53high scoring affair.

03:54So I love Mahomes

03:55over the one and a half.

03:57But I'll add on top of that.

03:58I mentioned the conversation

04:00around this game.

04:00And Joe, this is where

04:01I'm very in alignment with you.

04:03You always talk about

04:05break tendency.

04:06Everybody thinks left.

04:07Well, what about the right?

04:09People keep saying,

04:09look, man,

04:10Mahomes isn't going to be able

04:11to win this game scoring 28, 35.

04:13Defense is going to have

04:14to play their tail off.

04:15Hold on a second.

04:17Does anyone think the Texans

04:18can score 28 in this game?

04:20No.

04:21So the Chiefs MO

04:23should not be going into this game.

04:25Well,

04:26fingers crossed the defense shows up.

04:28They should be peddled to the metal.

04:30One of their most aggressive

04:31offensive games of this season.

04:33They're the team that can run and hide.

04:35Not Houston.

04:37Drop Mahomes back 45 times.

04:39If they come out there,

04:41first and 10,

04:41hunt,

04:42second and eight,

04:43hunt,

04:43third and six,

04:44that's crazy.

04:45That's crazy.

04:47I agree.

04:48That's why I like the over.

04:49I like KC.

04:50I agree, Joe.

04:50I like KC and I like the over.

04:52The over is my best bet,

04:53but I like the Chiefs at home

04:54in this type of situation

04:56because of the weapons, right?

04:57If it was any other team,

04:59meaning like meaning outside the Chiefs,

05:01I would say Houston advantage front seven,

05:04right?

05:04Because of the offensive lineman.

05:05But we know Mahomes is mobile,

05:07abused them on the ground,

05:09scored a touchdown in the regular season.

05:11Did he score a touchdown in the playoff win as well?

05:13I think,

05:14I mean,

05:14he can run and extend plays

05:16and then all of a sudden it's like,

05:17here we go.

05:19Right.

05:19I,

05:19I think they set the tempo.

05:21They sent the pace.

05:22I,

05:23I just think it's a big day for Worthy.

05:25He was held in check for much of the,

05:27the game against the Cowboys broke out

05:29with a big play in the fourth quarter.

05:31He could score not one,

05:32but two.

05:33And I just think their weapons shine tonight.

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