Notre Dame's CFP Chances and Betting Odds Analysis

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00:00A lot of conversation has been around Notre Dame, which flopped with Alabama.

00:04They're currently the last at large spot getting in with the ACC potentially

00:11or the Sun Belt and American champions getting in.

00:15There's talk that maybe they could be left out.

00:18Should BYU win, it would bump them out.

00:20Should BYU get smoked, they get back-to-back with Miami

00:22and then maybe get bumped out.

00:24However, I look at Notre Dame, I think a lot of places about plus 1,000.

00:27They're in like the fifth or sixth betting spot tied with a lot of teams,

00:31which is kind of wild.

00:33I think they're playing great and they can get in.

00:34But to be able to win it, Ben, you have to be in the tournament.

00:38Should we lean more into what Vegas is saying

00:40than maybe what the CFP committee just dropping them one spot?

00:44Oh, it's a really good question, Bobby,

00:46because I think both when you look at the national championship odds

00:49and what the CFP committee does, the national championship odds, of course,

00:53are a power rating based on those teams.

00:55But to your point, you have to make the college football playoff field.

00:59And I think there is a lot to look at this CFP committee so far

01:03and at least the rationale they have given us in the four weeks of these rankings

01:07and say we don't really know what exactly is going to win the day.

01:12Because, again, I've said this every time.

01:14We have had a college football playoff.

01:15This is now the 12th year, even the second, with 12 teams.

01:19There is no strict guidelines.

01:20There are no standards and logistics and protocols the college football playoff selection committee

01:25must follow each and every year.

01:27Oftentimes, year over year, they highlight something different.

01:31Strength of schedule, head-to-head victories, key metrics, and eye tests.

01:35We have no idea what they are highlighting.

01:37So, Bobby, to your point, I don't think Notre Dame is safe.

01:41Depending on what happens with BYU in the Big 12 title game,

01:44as Hunter Juracek, the new CFP chair, has told us now for three consecutive weeks,

01:48Notre Dame and Miami are not necessarily being compared using that week one head-to-head

01:52because they are not right next to each other.

01:55Well, BYU gets knocked out of the Big 12 championship game

01:57and they don't look great against Texas Tech for a second straight time.

02:00Then does Notre Dame next to Miami, does the head-to-head then win the day?

02:04What happens with Alabama, who earned the right to play

02:07in a conference championship game in Atlanta against Georgia?

02:10I'm not entirely sure, Bobby, what exactly the committee is going to tell us come Sunday.

02:16I do believe in two teams right now deserving probably a better at-large stake than they are getting.

02:21It is both BYU and, of course, Miami, who is still behind Notre Dame.

02:26The odds, though, when I look at the national title prices that I would still look at,

02:30assuming Notre Dame is going to make it, is the Fighting Irish at 10-1.

02:34Just to compare, Miami is 100-1 to win the national championship.

02:37That is very much availability rather than actual talent on that team.

02:41And it's still Oregon, for me, who I think clinched things up down the stretch

02:45with key victories against USC and on the road in Seattle against Washington.

02:50The Ducks at a 10-1 price.

02:51Still very intriguing to me.

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