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Seth and Sean discuss the Texans nationally hyped elite defense and how they might handle the Chiefs' biggest x-factor: Mahomes' mobility.
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00:00Texans are a big topic around the country this week.
00:03Can't flip on a debate show without people talking about the Houston Texans defense,
00:07and now they're playing one of the most high-profile teams.
00:09This is the most high-profile game.
00:12I don't know if this is the most important game that they'll have played, Seth,
00:15because I think they can lose this game and still have most of their goals in front of them,
00:19given their schedule the rest of the way.
00:21The schedule is very manageable after this game.
00:24So this is not as must-win as the last four games have been,
00:28just to get back to 7-5 and keep the percentages on your side.
00:32But it's the Chiefs, man.
00:34It's the Chiefs.
00:35It's right.
00:36I mean, if the Chiefs didn't have their previous history
00:38and if their quarterback wasn't Pat Mahomes and everything that he's done,
00:41it would be, wow, Texans look like they've really got it together
00:44and they're going against a 500-football team.
00:46That's right.
00:46Nice game.
00:47Yeah.
00:47But, no, we know that it's much, much more than that.
00:50It's the Chiefs.
00:50So now everybody is weighing in on this game early in the week.
00:54Here was Stephen A. Smith talking about the Texans' defense going into Kansas City.
00:58If there was ever a time when you needed to be what you used to be,
01:02it's against this Houston defense.
01:03These brothers are something special.
01:05I haven't seen a defense in the modern era like this, the way these brothers hunt.
01:12And to be in a situation where your offensive line, not one, not two, but three different dudes,
01:17out against them?
01:19Listen, Houston's going to tell me more so than Kansas City.
01:24I'm looking at Houston because I have total faith in their defense.
01:28The question is going to be what C.J. Stroud and that offense are going to be able to give you.
01:31Because I believe they've got a chance to still take the South.
01:33And I believe that Houston is the team to watch in the AFC to come out of the AFC.
01:38That's how I feel about that defense.
01:40Okay, this is where, for one, I don't, like, I never take a compliment or an insult to one of my teams
01:46from Stephen A. Smith all that seriously.
01:48Because, you know, next week he's setting himself up to talk about how the,
01:52he's never been more disappointed by a team than the Houston Texans.
01:56He entertains me just delivering his outstanding.
01:58It is.
01:58And I want to believe that this is the most ferocious defense he's ever seen in the modern era.
02:03But, like, let's be realistic here.
02:05If they give up 30 this weekend, they're trash again.
02:09So, there is.
02:11I mean, this is a thing, though.
02:13It's rare to see pass rushers like Daniil Hunter and Will Anderson operating at the level they are,
02:20while also having really sound coverage behind them.
02:24And that's the part, and then their style of play, I think, is what's really caught people's eye.
02:30You see the highlights and the cut-ups of Daniil Hunter and Will Anderson.
02:35You see Kamari Lasseter slapping his head.
02:37You see the big hits and everything.
02:39Yeah.
02:39And it's intoxicating.
02:41That's the kind of team, especially in December, that people get into.
02:43We played that clip yesterday of Daniel Jeremiah saying, man, in a year like this,
02:47where nobody really seems to be stepping forward, the tough physical teams are the ones that matter.
02:53This is the year, man.
02:54Yeah.
02:55And we're getting to a point where I can feel it amongst Texans fans,
02:58where they almost like, okay, nice.
03:02Nice hopping on and realizing that the defense is really, really good.
03:06But we also know, because we've witnessed it, that without a good offense on the other side,
03:12let's not even say an awesome offense, but there have been times in the fourth quarter
03:16where the defense has just had to come up with stop after stop after stop.
03:20That's right.
03:20And then all of a sudden, an offense breaks one.
03:23Whether it's the Broncos, whether it's the Bucs, whatever it might be,
03:27they can only be the best defense in the modern era for so many series per game.
03:33That's right.
03:33So really, and that's why everybody right now is kind of holding,
03:37they're holding the Texans right there around like from 10th to 12th or 14th in the power rankings
03:42because they want to see, all right, what is this offense really?
03:46Yeah.
03:46And can they just be just good enough of an offense,
03:50and can they get the best version of C.J. Stroud?
03:53That's really going to, for me, the story of the rest of the season is, yes,
03:58obviously it's about the defense,
04:00but really just can they rely on the offense to do their part?
04:03I'll take it a step further.
04:05The offensive conversation, Seth, this weekend is very, very key
04:10because I think the offense has shown it can operate at a moderate level.
04:15You know, it's not an elite offense, but it's shown it can.
04:17The offensive line has been what we hoped for, average.
04:19Average.
04:20Yeah.
04:20You're 100% right.
04:21The thing about this weekend's game and why I won't say I'm glad it's at night in Kansas City,
04:27but this is where we are, is can this offense operate in elements?
04:34Can it operate in cold weather at night?
04:36Because there's a better chance the Texans are a wild card team than the division winner right now.
04:41That's just math.
04:43There's a better chance they're a wild card team.
04:45Look at the places they would have to go play if they're a wild card team.
04:50There's a chance they'd have to go to New England in January.
04:53There's a good chance they'd have to go to Denver in January.
04:56There's a chance they'd have to go to Baltimore in January or Pittsburgh in January.
05:01The only one out of all those teams that are above them right now
05:04that are potential division winners that play in non-inclement weather is Jacksonville.
05:11You know, Jacksonville plays, you know, if you're the sixth seed and Jags are the three seed,
05:15you're going to head to Florida to play.
05:17But all those other teams, there's no indoor teams.
05:19These are all outdoor, up north, or in the case of the Broncos, in cold climates in the mountains.
05:26So that, to me, because I can't think of a game yet where the Texans have gone against a good team.
05:32I'm not talking about Tennessee in December.
05:35Against a good team, gone to their place in bad conditions with this group,
05:41with C.J. Stroud as their quarterback, and won a football game.
05:44That, to me, would be the biggest thing to come to this game on Sunday.
05:48The three cold-weather games that C.J. Stroud has played in his career,
05:51you're going to see people say, oh, he's 0-3 in cold-weather games.
05:54Okay, well, there was the Ravens game in the playoffs.
05:57Texans were facing a much better team than themselves.
05:59Yeah, I won the weather that beat them that day.
06:01They were playing in the Chiefs late last year in the regular season.
06:04Texans lost to a team that's better than them on the road.
06:07Yep.
06:07They played to the Chiefs in the playoffs, lost to a better team than them on the road.
06:12I mean, like, I don't put a whole lot of weight into that.
06:14I mean, C.J., obviously, in the playoff game, didn't have a great game,
06:17but there's a lot more that went into it in the cold.
06:19I never felt in any of those three games that the weather was the issue,
06:22or that C.J. was particularly inaccurate.
06:24Sure.
06:25You go to the Chiefs game last year in the regular season, it really seemed to fall apart.
06:29I mean, he made a brilliant throw to Tank Dell,
06:30but then Tank Dell gets injured and everything kind of –
06:33and they had some nice drives after that.
06:36C.J. made some mental errors, but his accuracy seemed just fine.
06:41And C.J. made some dime throws last year in the playoffs.
06:45And so I didn't see the cold being a factor in any of those games,
06:49so I'm not worried about that part of it.
06:51I would worry about if there's wind just because that's –
06:54any quarterback has a hard time with a wind.
06:56Yep.
06:57Here's Dominic Foxworth of ESPN.
07:00And he's also saying Texans defense can get this done against the Chiefs.
07:04I believe that the Houston Texans are going to extinguish the Chiefs' playoff chances this season.
07:10The Chiefs have been up and down all season long.
07:13The Texans defense is incredible.
07:16Patrick Mahomes hasn't been the same version of him that we all remember,
07:18and I think it's hard for us to let it go.
07:20I know.
07:21I hold on to the belief in Patrick Mahomes all the time.
07:23But when you watch the way their offense performs,
07:26and then you look at that damn Texas.
07:28Oh, my God.
07:30It's hard for me to imagine Patrick Mahomes being comfortable at all in that situation.
07:34There is no weakness on that defense.
07:36There's nowhere to attack.
07:37It's going to be a tough game for them, and especially if they have straddled back.
07:41The offensive line isn't great, but they've been slightly better as of late.
07:44The Texans, that is.
07:45If they can score enough points, I think that they'll knock the Chiefs off.
07:47And this is the thing, where the Chiefs present a bit of a problem, I think,
07:53is that the Texans, when they face the team where they feel like, like with the Bills,
07:59I mean, they just came right out and said, all right, we've got to stop James Cook,
08:03and we're not going to worry as much about Josh Allen, other than containing him as a passer.
08:09They almost got the sense they wanted Josh Allen to try to be a passer,
08:11especially with the way they were calling the game.
08:13Last week, Kalen Bullock came out and said, you know what, we've got to worry about Jonathan Taylor,
08:18and if you take care of him, you don't get much else.
08:20He went extreme.
08:22He's like, I don't really have anything else.
08:23But it gives you kind of a hint of what they were hearing in meetings.
08:26For sure.
08:27This week, it's a little bit tougher because I would say, worry about Kareem Hunt right now,
08:33the way the Chiefs have been operating.
08:34They're like third in EPA in rushing the football.
08:38But when you do that and you load up against Pat Mahomes, it's those dagger shots in the fourth quarter.
08:47It's those chunk plays when he extends the play and he finds somebody over the middle like Xavier Worthy last week.
08:53When he's falling down.
08:55Yeah.
08:56You're looking at last week, the Texans let up some chunk plays over the middle.
09:01The area of weakness, I would say, is just when the Chiefs can extend the play, are they hitting chunk plays over the middle?
09:11Is Miles Bryant dialed in and playing everything exactly the way he's supposed to be?
09:19But it's still, it's very, very lopsided in terms of just how good this defense is operating right now
09:25versus how the Chiefs offense has been operating.
09:27The big question mark is really just, can the Texans' offensive line really, can they go out and grind clock?
09:34Can they methodically move down the field?
09:36But then first and foremost, can they turn in in that zone?
09:39How many points, I mean, we play this game a lot.
09:41Like, what wins this game?
09:43How many points do Texans need to score to win this thing, do you think?
09:45I would say, I mean, the problem is Mahomes is almost like facing a really good three-point shooting team in basketball.
09:52Even if they're not a great team, but if they're daggers from three-point.
09:55It's a great analogy, yeah.
09:56It's just, it's a coin flip sometimes.
09:58Yes.
09:58Because whether the three goes in or not.
10:01But, like, let's say without any miracle, let's give them one miracle circus throw.
10:05Okay, okay.
10:06I think it's still, I'm putting it at 21 points.
10:09I agree with that.
10:10That was my number.
10:10That's what I wrote down on my piece of paper.
10:1221.
10:13I think it's 21.
10:14Which means take the under on this game.
10:16I don't know what it is.
10:17I guarantee it's over 40 because Mahomes is playing.
10:20I mean, it's weird.
10:21The Chiefs are hard to figure out.
10:23They have been for a couple years.
10:24Last year, they won a bunch of one-score games.
10:27This year, they've lost a bunch of one-score games.
10:29You look at their EPA offensively in a lot of categories is still top five.
10:35And that's where everybody likes to bow at the altar of EPA these days.
10:39That doesn't seem to be doing a whole lot for them.
10:42They're just, the defense isn't as scary as it used to be.
10:46No.
10:46The defense, the Chiefs defense is allowing the same number of points per game that they did last year
10:51when everybody was gushing about their defense.
10:53But they're not doing it with its big impact plays.
10:57They're not doing it as opportunistically.
10:59But they're still a solid defense.
11:01Some of what's happened, I think, is that the rest of the league,
11:04a lot of defenses are copying a lot of the stuff that Spagnuolo
11:07and a couple other coordinators have been good at.
11:10And offenses are just getting better at anticipating it.
11:12You know, the blitz pad, they've just got more film and more evidence
11:15and more reps playing against defenses like that.
11:19So it's not quite as scary.
11:21It's still scary, but it's not quite as scary as it used to be.
11:24Here's Peter Schrager, also of ESPN, echoing what we just heard the last two experts say.
11:31Experts air quotes.
11:33Texans can end the Chiefs season this Sunday.
11:35I was in the building when Logan Ryan intercepted a Tom Brady pass,
11:39took it in for a touchdown, and it was like, wait a second,
11:41the Patriots just lose to the Titans in the wild card.
11:44Is this really happening?
11:45Are they really out of the playoffs?
11:46That was in 2019.
11:48Will Anderson sacking Patrick Mahomes on a Sunday night on national television
11:52in early December, and you're like, time has run out.
11:56It might be over for the Chiefs this season, and it might happen in early December.
12:00Okay, that's much less creepy analysis of the Texans than the last time you heard from Schrager.
12:06Texans are this fun, young team.
12:08I like the high energy.
12:11They can kill the Chiefs season dead in the water.
12:14Sunday night football.
12:15I like he paints a picture.
12:17Will Anderson sacking Patrick Mahomes way better than Texans.
12:21Texans are this fun, young team.
12:22He sounds like the creepy guy on the family guy watching Chris go by on his paper route.
12:27That's right.
12:28This is now they're full-grown men, and Peter Schrager has to, now he's in business mode.
12:33You know, he's like, oh, okay.
12:35I'm in business mode.
12:36I'm going to take off the bathrobe and put on a suit and talk about the Texans.
12:39That's right.
12:40That's right.
12:40You can do that stuff on the NFL network, but boy, when you get to ESPN, you better bring
12:45the energy and stop sounding so creepy, Schrags, all right?
12:48That's right.
12:49I'm looking on Sumer Sports, and EPA per pass play, Chiefs are third.
12:54EPA per rush, they're fourth.
12:57Does that match the eye test?
13:00No, it doesn't.
13:01You can do whatever you want to the Chiefs.
13:02It doesn't.
13:02Yeah, yeah, yeah.
13:03You know, and it's points matter.
13:06It's just that I think that's where some of the things that the Chiefs did really well
13:11last year was all of those little things on the margin.
13:13They weren't a good offense last year, but they were really good at converting third downs
13:16and fourth downs.
13:17They're good at that again this year, but some of the old standbys of just simply when you
13:23are third and long or when you're on third down situations, they're not as scary.
13:27I guess this would be the scary thing is that if the Chiefs are able to move the ball between
13:31the 20s and get into the red zone, the Texans have not had a great red zone defense this
13:34year.
13:35So the Chiefs are at home.
13:36You got Mahomes at quarterback.
13:37They got a ton of weapons.
13:38Boy, Andy Reid, I mean, whatever the Texans are in the red zone, Andy Reid is the complete
13:43opposite of that.
13:43The things he can draw up there with some of the shovel passes and the misdirections
13:48and all that.
13:49I mean, he's just so creative.
13:50I guess that would be a concern that if you don't completely stifle the Chiefs in between
13:54the 20s, that we've got a big enough sample size now, Seth, 12 games into the season to
13:59say, Texans aren't a great red zone defense, you know, and the Chiefs feel like a team
14:06that at home in a primetime game would cash in on those opportunities.
14:09They can get into the red zone.
14:10That is, and as we've talked about, it takes a little bit of, when you're down in the red
14:13zone, your pass rush doesn't necessarily make as much of an impact.
14:17The ball's, everything's happening fast.
14:19The ball can come out quickly, and the other thing the Texans do really well is they play
14:24off coverage really well, but you get down in the red zone and you give some guys some
14:28cushion.
14:29That cushion, the goal line is smack dab in the middle of that cushion.
14:33Yeah.
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