Putin has 'something to back his confidence with', analyst says

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00:00Karas' report, we heard Belgium's leader talking about that finance issue,

00:04the EU laying out a plan to use frozen Russian assets to help fund Ukraine

00:08with 90 billion euros over the next two years,

00:10in spite of that outspoken opposition from Belgium,

00:13because Belgium is where the money is stashed.

00:16The European Union's executive has been drawing up options

00:18to help plug Kiev's looming budget black holes,

00:21as Russia's punishing invasion drags on towards a fourth year.

00:25Let's bring in for more analysis of the situation, Peter Zalmayev.

00:29Peter is the founder and director of the Eurasia Democracy Initiative.

00:33Joining us live from Kiev.

00:34Peter, as always, pleasure to have you here in France 24.

00:36Great to see you. Hope you're OK.

00:39Give us your sense of the situation now, of course.

00:41We heard Putin talking 24 hours ago about being ready to fight with Europe

00:46if Europe wants to do that.

00:48Rutter today of NATO saying NATO is ready to defend our billion people.

00:53One might hope Ukraine will figure in that, but of course we don't yet know, do we?

00:58We don't know, indeed, we don't know if that is the case,

01:04but we also, we don't know if what Rutter says is the truth.

01:09I was just, Mark, I was just reading a leading newspaper of Spain,

01:14El País, where it actually, the author wrote, point blank,

01:19that any average European, when faced with this sort of threat by the Russians,

01:28would most likely just withdraw into his or her nook,

01:32somewhere cozy, somewhere away from the world's problems, etc.

01:36This raises the question of whether Europe actually is mentally ready to take on the Russian threat.

01:43Vladimir Putin is actually very much aware of that, and that explains his behavior.

01:50Of course, it says, you know, the reason he mentioned that and he brought up this strategic,

01:58it's meant to, you know, scare not just the Europeans, but also the Americans.

02:05You know, he's, you know, this bravado, we've heard this before, we've heard him in Bishkek in Kyrgyzstan

02:10at this security, regional security meeting, where he said that, you know, he would be happy to continue fighting.

02:18This is part for the course of Vladimir Putin.

02:20He's played quite a sophisticated game of intimidation with the West and nuclear blackmail and these other statements that we've heard.

02:32He's very confident, in fact, and, you know, he's got something to back his confidence with,

02:39and that is, you know, over the last few months, years, actually, a couple of years,

02:43he's been violating the airspace, Mark, as you've probably commented more than once on your show,

02:49of several European countries, including Poland and Romania.

02:54And what response did he get?

02:56Pretty much nothing, you know, a threat to continue debating which steps would be taken the next time.

03:03And the next time never arrives.

03:05And we are still in that same place.

03:06Ukrainians are watching this, and they're very frustrated that, you know, our backers are losing stamina,

03:13not just, you know, to continue defending us, but it's, once again, it's a big question whether Europe,

03:19when the push comes to shove, will be ready to stand up for its own sovereignty, its own values.

03:25Indeed, we can obviously take Rutter at his words that he says NATO is ready to defend our billion people.

03:32You mentioned the infringement of borders.

03:35There's been an incident this evening, Vilnius Airport, Lithuania, closed by balloons flooding across.

03:40This is something launched from Belarus.

03:41Of course, Vassal State, of course, ruled by Russia, or at least manipulated by Russia in that sense,

03:47and it was very clear that it was that state back in 2022 when Russian troops left there to invade Ukraine.

03:53The narrative that Putin's created, Peter, you've talked about this before,

03:57the sense that Russia is winning everything.

03:59Of course, the aim was to take the whole of Ukraine in just three days.

04:02That never happened.

04:03There is a section of Ukraine that is occupied now.

04:06Russia wants more.

04:07Ukraine doesn't want to give that up, and one can understand completely why that is.

04:12Were you surprised that in the meeting in Moscow there was no movement when Wyckoff, Kushner,

04:18were sat there with Putin?

04:19Were you surprised five hours later they'd come out with nothing?

04:23Absolutely not.

04:24I mean, that was my prediction all along.

04:25It seems like both sides, actually, paradoxically, as it may sound, both the Ukrainian side and the Russian side,

04:32have been dragged into this process sort of against their will, and they're playing, you know,

04:36they're sort of dancing this tango, you know, with the American side,

04:41because they, you know, they don't want to be seen as the recalcitrant party.

04:44They don't want to be seen as the odd man out, not willing to negotiate.

04:49Ukraine, for obvious reasons, that it does not, it cannot afford to anger Trump and company,

04:54and Putin does not want to bring on any additional sanctions, and he wants to come across as this man of peace, of course.

05:02But in reality, you know, talking about territorial concessions that Russia has demanded,

05:06that is a non-starter for, once again, paradoxically, both sides for Ukraine,

05:11and paradoxically, it goes to the root of the constitutional issue,

05:15that Russia actually has written these territories, the four oblasts,

05:19the four regions of Ukraine, into its constitution as part of Russia proper,

05:24up to the so-called administrative borders of these regions, as they are in Ukraine.

05:31And Ukraine, of course, cannot, you know, just negotiate away these regions according to Ukraine's constitution.

05:40This is up to a popular referendum.

05:43So, and on top of that, we know what happens when you give Putin an inch.

05:48We saw that with Crimea, that only wears his appetite.

05:51If he were to get the remaining part of the Donbass,

05:55I mean, he would command it, you know, a much more advantageous position for me to continue gobbling up Ukraine.

06:02And let's not forget, the remaining part of the Donbass that he wants consists of veritable town fortresses,

06:11such as Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, with hundreds of thousands of our compatriots still residing there.

06:16Of course, a non-starter.

06:18Putin knows this, and he's probing for it.

06:21He knows that in any situation, it's win-win.

06:24If he were to get it without an additional shot fired, all the better.

06:29If Ukraine were, you know, to say no, he could continue, you know, fighting.

06:34But whatever the case may be, whichever president of Ukraine signs away those territories,

06:40the very next day, he'll be out of office.

06:42I mean, this is a non-political non-starter for the Ukrainian side.

06:47Peter, we need to leave it there.

06:48Stay safe there in Kiev.

06:49Of course, we know that by night there will be missiles, drones aimed where you are by Russia.

06:56So do stay safe, sir.

06:57Thank you very much indeed.

06:58Peter Zalmayev of the Eurasia Democracy Initiative, as always, giving us his insight into what Ukraine is thinking.

07:04Peter, pleasure to have you with us.

07:06Do, as I say, once again, stay safe.

07:08Peter, pleasure to have you with us.

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