- 4 months ago
In an exclusive interview with India Today TV, World Economic Forum President and CEO Borge Brende talked about the India-US trade deal, GST reforms, India-China ties, the Russia-Ukraine war and on a host of issues.
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00:00Hello and welcome to this India Today special roundtable.
00:09We live in a world that is increasingly uncertain.
00:13Global conflicts in different corners of the globe.
00:17Supply chains that are being disrupted by President Trump's tariff policies.
00:22China, which continues to push ahead with its geopolitical and geoeconomic agendas.
00:30And, of course, the world of AI.
00:33How does one deal with an increasingly uncertain world?
00:37That's the question my colleagues Geeta Mohan, Gaurav Sawant and Siddharth Zarabi want to pose to a very special guest who's joining us.
00:47The President and CEO of the World Economic Forum, the former Foreign Minister of Norway, Borge Brende, is our special guest today.
00:57Thank you very much, sir, for joining us.
00:59Thank you. Thank you very much for inviting me.
01:02And it is specifically important to have you here because you've just come from the White House.
01:08And many believe that the White House is the epicenter of the disruption that's taking place around us.
01:14Policies are being decided on truth social and destabilizing the world around us, including us here in India.
01:21What's your sense from your visit to Washington, to the White House, and what you're seeing around you?
01:28So, to your question, I think the most pressing and the highest tariff now, talking about tariffs, is uncertainty.
01:37The highest tariff is uncertainty.
01:41Yeah, yeah. The other tariffs we will deal with.
01:44But uncertainty will continue and we have to be resilient.
01:49After my visit to Washington, D.C., where I spent time in the White House, but also in the Senate, with senators, also with a trade representative of the U.S.,
02:00my feeling is that the challenge and the impulse between India and the U.S., I think will be solved in the coming weeks.
02:11I think India, of course, doesn't rely on the U.S. market and U.S. doesn't rely on India,
02:18but there is enough common interest to break that impasse.
02:24U.S. is the largest economy in the world, 30 trillion U.S. dollars, almost 30% of the global economy.
02:31And India, of course, wants to export its products, being digital trade, also services and manufactured goods to the U.S. in the future.
02:41And the U.S. want to also be friends with India.
02:46That's strategic for the U.S. in Asia.
02:50So before my colleagues take over, I just want to press you on what you've just said, because it's important.
02:56You're saying the India-U.S. impasse over tariffs is likely to end sooner rather than later, is the impression you've come out with after visiting the White House.
03:08Do you want to give us some kind of a time frame that you're getting before the end of the year, by next month, when?
03:13So it takes two to tango.
03:16So it's not only the impression I got when I was in D.C. that this will be like an impasse that will end,
03:28but also from the meetings I had here in Delhi, I think there's also interest in Delhi to find a path with the U.S.
03:36There is enough common interest between these two great countries to work this out.
03:45And I think it's also about the future, because there is huge potential for increased collaboration and growth.
03:53And the Americans also know that this economy, the Indian economy, is growing now, fastest growing of the large economies of the world.
04:03But I think one number that is, for me, very staggering, that I discussed with our economists, is that 18% of the global growth now comes from India.
04:14Just imagine what that means also for global prosperity.
04:20So you are exporting prosperity by growing so fast, because you're also demanding products from other countries.
04:26What is the sense that you got when you're saying that it is going to happen in coming weeks,
04:35particularly in terms of the penalties that India suffers importing Russian oil?
04:41In your opinion, and your conversations in Washington, D.C., was it because of Russian oil imports?
04:50Because then D.C. would have also penalized China, or Turkey for that matter.
04:55So is that the sense that you're getting it's Russian oil, or is there more to it?
05:00Or is it less to it?
05:01Less to it.
05:02You know, so I will not speak on behalf of the Americans.
05:08They can speak very eloquently for themselves.
05:13My reading is that on the Russian oil, there has been a global consensus that one continued to bring in Russian oil,
05:25but it was going to be bought with a discount.
05:28So there was a ceiling of 60 U.S. dollars.
05:32If there is a change in that policy, then there is a change in that policy.
05:39But I think there is not a consensus on then moving six, seven, eight million barrels of oil out of the market every day.
05:55So I think that could lead also to higher, or it would lead to higher oil prices.
06:02But you never know.
06:03There is also a lot of supply, of course.
06:06There is capacities in Saudi Arabia to increase the production quite substantially.
06:11But when I said that I also think the impulse between the U.S. and India will end,
06:20I think there will also be an understanding on this topic.
06:23But I think this topic is manageable, and I think the other topics that we face will also be manageable.
06:31Of course, for India, the agriculture piece is important.
06:35We also know that India, over time, has to reform its agriculture sector because you could produce the same amount of food with less resources.
06:48Then it would be more profitable, and these people could then go to more profitable areas and produce higher up in the value chain.
06:54But others that are not Indians also need to understand that this is a very difficult area in Indian politics.
07:05I guess 40% of the waters have ties to the agricultural sector.
07:10So sometimes slow is fast.
07:15I know it's a Chinese saying, so I hope I'm forgiven by that in India.
07:19Okay, you spoke about India and the U.S. being friends.
07:25But explain to us, and I ask you this question in your capacity as a former foreign minister who understands this.
07:31So on one hand, we have President Trump saying that Narendra Modi, our prime minister, is his good friend.
07:37Yet you see this barrage of statements from various people within the Trump administration,
07:43people very close to him, who are being seen as disparaging India.
07:48And clearly this is not something that is said in diplomacy, and certainly not to friends.
07:53Is there a method to this madness that you could explain to our viewers?
07:57Because many of us and our viewers are confused.
08:00You say something one day before, and next morning something else.
08:04So I think we have to have a historic perspective on this.
08:08I think Vincent Churchill once said that the farther backward, you can look the farther forward, you're likely to see.
08:14You know, there has been decades now of closer cooperation between U.S. and India.
08:22So there's been now a few weeks where there have been some hiccups, or maybe you would say more than hiccups.
08:28But I think this will pass.
08:31I don't think there is a shift in the medium-long-term cooperation between India and U.S.
08:42I think there's too much common interests that bring them together.
08:47And look at the U.S., you know, the biggest American companies would not run without Indians.
08:54And the Indian diaspora is contributing very much also in the U.S. economy.
08:59I feel that there is a lot of general affinity towards India in the U.S.
09:08I think the same in India.
09:09You know, until this recent hiccup, I think Trump was more popular in India in the polls than in any other country in the world, including the United States.
09:23So maybe that has now changed, but, you know, I think there will be a normalization in this.
09:31And when you saw the exchanges between Prime Minister Modi and also President Trump on the Prime Minister's birthday, it couldn't be warmer.
09:42So maybe this is a warm-up to what I think will come in the coming weeks with the breakthrough.
09:46Can I take one quick follow-up to this?
09:49A lot of people say that President Trump has failed on his core agenda of peace in Ukraine.
09:58Hasn't happened.
09:59The Hamas has not released hostages.
10:02Many other items in his agenda are still work in progress.
10:05A broader question to you.
10:07In your view, is the American century getting over?
10:11Many interesting both premises and questions in that question.
10:17So, let me then, for the sake of the argument, also say that although things are going well in the U.S., when you look at the domestic economy,
10:28if we met a year ago, the big question would be, oh, will the U.S. economy have a hard landing or a soft landing?
10:35And there's no landing currently.
10:37It's still growing.
10:38The Europeans are envious of the growth in the U.S.
10:43They're also very well prepared for the new technologies.
10:47They also have a lot of capital.
10:49There are small worries now related to inflation and all that.
10:55But overall, the U.S. economy is very robust.
10:57And that was the main reason why Trump was elected.
11:01It was the two I's, inflation and immigration.
11:07And both of those things he is now dealing with.
11:12Of course, the international agenda is more complex.
11:16It's true that the outcome of the Alaska meeting is to be seen.
11:21But every war needs to end sooner or later.
11:25Also, the war in Ukraine will end.
11:27But Mr. Putin will need to feel that he has more to lose by continuing than to continue.
11:36He still, you know, only has 18 percent of Ukraine.
11:41He doesn't even have Donbass.
11:43And all these areas, he has said that that's part of Russia.
11:46So he might want a little bit more before he then sits down at the table.
11:55But it's a very, very sad humanitarian story.
12:00On Gaza, there, of course, Mr. Netanyahu, I think, also surprises President Trump with some
12:10of the moves in Gaza, and especially related to the terrible humanitarian situation we're
12:18seeing there now.
12:21So I want to come back to, you know, Gaza and steps that have been taken, including the
12:25bombing of Qatar recently by Israel, and what impact will that have on trade?
12:31But before I come to international affairs, that way, I want to come back to India for a
12:36moment.
12:36And I want to ask you about some of the reforms that Prime Minister Modi has just carried out,
12:40including the GST reforms.
12:42In your view, will these reforms help mitigate some of the challenges posed by the U.S. tariffs?
12:49Should tariffs not go down immediately by whatever percentage that we are hoping?
12:54And will it help spur the economy further?
12:56So contributing 18 percent to global economy already, but contributing domestically and internationally
13:01with these GST reforms?
13:02I think those reforms were very pertinent.
13:07I think they were very timely.
13:10So that will contribute positively to further economic growth in India.
13:18You could also say that if you look at India-China relationship, it's not bad for the world
13:25that these two big nations also communicate well with each other.
13:30They will compete in some areas, and they have border issues and all that.
13:34But overall, you can say that it's not so negative.
13:40It's rather positive.
13:42So then you can say on the other question about growth in the Indian economy, also related to
13:57the tariffs, U.S. and India has in common that you have big home markets.
14:05Yes.
14:05So you're not so much relying on trade as others.
14:09I think trade is maybe 20 percent of the Indian economy.
14:14If you go to Germany, it's 50 percent.
14:16And I think if you go to China, it's also very, very big.
14:19It's an export-led economy.
14:21So even with the tariffs that then the U.S. administration has now introduced, it is maybe
14:29like 2 percent of India's GDP is affected with it.
14:35But what I said earlier on is about the future.
14:39India is developing.
14:41Like a few years ago, you were not even manufacturing almost iPhones and mobiles.
14:47No, you're the second largest exporter in the world.
14:50And when you want to take India forward, you want to have access to the U.S. market.
14:55So that's why you also want to break this impasse.
14:59So I'm not so worried about the short-term implications that will be dealt with.
15:06But medium-longer term, it's in both nations' interest to find a good way of trading with
15:13each other.
15:14And you know, the Americans, contrary to many others, they do consume.
15:19Yes.
15:19In many other nations, people just save them money.
15:23For example, in China, the savings rates are incredibly high.
15:28But the American consumers are still comfortable, so they buy stuff also from India, including
15:34services and digital trade.
15:36And is that also helping India, the services, the digital trade, especially when goods trade
15:41is facing some headwinds?
15:42Exactly.
15:43It is just my point in the last weeks.
15:47We see that manufactured goods, the demand and the trade in manufactured goods, is even
15:53contracting, while we see services and digital is growing much higher.
16:00I don't think trade will, again, short-term, medium-term, be the engine of growth globally
16:05like it used to be.
16:07Now trade is growing less than the global GDP.
16:10So what is driving growth now, I think, are the new technologies.
16:14And these will be the drivers of growth in the years to come.
16:18And for India, it's like a very sweet spotter, because you're strong on services, you are
16:23strong on digital trade, less so on manufacturing, even if you're trying to improve.
16:28So the demand now is kind of bespoke for India.
16:34But then you need also access to the markets to grow further.
16:38You don't want to be met with 50% tariff.
16:40You know, you want to...
16:42And that's why the EU deal is also, I guess, important for India.
16:46But that brings me to where you started.
16:48You said that the real tariff is uncertainty.
16:53And it's the highest tariff.
16:54It's the highest tariff.
16:54We are in uncertain times.
16:56You still have a war in Ukraine and Russia that's gone on now for three years.
17:01You've had Gaza, which shows no immediate sign of ending.
17:05We just had, a few years ago, a border skirmish with China.
17:12A few months ago, we had a war with Pakistan.
17:18Is that...
17:19Are these the reasons why a number of big businesses are still reluctant to put their major investments
17:26there?
17:26It's all very well for us to sit here and say, look, we're...
17:30You know, India is in a sweet spot.
17:31But the truth is, a number of Indian investors, businesses are still waiting and watching.
17:36And is that because the world is such an uncertain place that you don't know what tomorrow brings?
17:41And that's the problem in this Trumpian era, particularly with America sending out these conflicting signals
17:47that we don't know if a month from now you're back with us, how the world has changed.
17:53How do you end that sense of uncertainty and what it does to business?
18:00It's a correct observation you're coming with.
18:04And I can also show that in real numbers.
18:07But it's not only the Americans being mavericks in this situation.
18:12I think that there are other mavericks in this...
18:15Sure.
18:16You've got Putin.
18:17You've got the Chinese.
18:18They're all...
18:19And to your list, you could then also add...
18:22Netanyahu.
18:23And Iran.
18:24Sure.
18:25We were very close to a full-fledged war with Iran.
18:31That fortunately calmed down.
18:34And this is what we have seen, that these wars have not, so far in conflicts, have not
18:40been of size that they have killed the global growth.
18:44So quite a country, we increased the growth expectation from 2.8% globally this year to
18:513%, even with all those conflicts.
18:53So hopefully we can maneuver and deal with the conflicts without then also killing growth.
19:03I think that will be very important.
19:09I think also that on the overall investments in developing and emerging economies, that's
19:19a reason for concern, especially in developing economies.
19:26For the first time in decades, we saw that the foreign direct investments went down last
19:32year.
19:32That's right.
19:32With 7%.
19:34There was a contraction of 7% less invested in foreign direct investments.
19:40And especially developing countries, because of the uncertainty that really needs the investments
19:45in infrastructure, in technology, and all this, they're seeing less and less capital available.
19:51I think India is in a different space there, but there is clearly an advantage for the U.S.
20:02in this.
20:03U.S., as I said, is almost 30% of the global economy, 5% of the global population, and then
20:12there are like 45% of the global military capacity, and 70% of the global market cap of all globally
20:20listed companies are in the U.S.
20:23So the capital is in the U.S.
20:26So they have so much capital.
20:28If you have a good idea, you get it financed, and there's competition among these people
20:33to finance ideas in the U.S., and in many developing countries and also emerging economies.
20:39I think if you have a great idea in India, you have to pay higher interest, and there may
20:44be not so many people that want to put their money there because of uncertainties.
20:48So I think there's a reason to be worried about this because we want also emerging economists
20:55to leapfrog.
20:56Yeah.
20:57I just wanted to follow, take that forward.
21:00The World Economic Forum does surveys of CEO sentiment.
21:03You do that annually as well, and the next one will be at the next chapter of the forum at Davos
21:122026.
21:13But I wanted to ask you, at this stage, what is global CEO sentiment looking like, especially
21:21at a time when they really don't know how to take a call?
21:25Two, three years back, it was China plus one, as far as Indian CEOs are concerned.
21:29Is this a time when Indian CEOs, particularly who will be listening to what you are saying,
21:34they have to now consider America plus one or plus two kind of scenario?
21:39So you can look at the glass half full or half empty.
21:45I look at it half full because I'm surprised about the strength in the global economy.
21:52I did not think half a year ago that we were going to have to increase the growth expectations
22:00this year.
22:02So there is a robustness there.
22:05I think we're already seeing the productivity gains from the new technologies, especially in
22:11the U.S. And I think they're the drivers of growth.
22:16So those nations that are now moving forward with entrepreneurship and also startup nations
22:21and all this.
22:21And here, India has huge opportunities.
22:25It's the third largest startup nation in the world.
22:27160,000 startups, 120 unicorns.
22:30You add one every 20 a day or something.
22:34So if you have the capital and entrepreneurship, I think you can do well.
22:39So I'm not overall pessimistic on the global economy, but of course, there are also some
22:45black swamps.
22:47So there could possibly be a minor bubble on AI.
22:55Yes.
22:55It could also be a minor bubble on everything related to the new currencies.
23:03So, and fintech and all that piece.
23:12So we have to also watch out for that.
23:15And the last black swamp is the global debt.
23:19We have not been so indebted since 1945.
23:22And some countries haven't been that indebted since the Napoleonic Wars.
23:25And how do we deal with that, especially if the interest rate were to go up again?
23:29And if there is a recession coming?
23:32Sooner or later, there will be a recession.
23:34Recessions haven't gone, I guess.
23:37And how do you fight a recession?
23:39Spend governmental money.
23:40And if you are already so indebted that you don't have that fiscal muscle, what do we do then?
23:46Then you'll get an unnecessary deep recession.
23:50Okay.
23:51Borgi, firstly, thank you for busting, I'd not call it a lie, but an idea that, you know,
23:56every time a country wants to show another country down, you say, oh, that country's economy is collapsing.
24:02You're right in saying that American economy is not collapsing.
24:05A lot of people are saying American economy is collapsing because of Trump.
24:09The same question on China.
24:11Is the Chinese economy collapsing?
24:12And is this war not about India, U.S. or Russia, U.S.?
24:16It's about the two super giants today, U.S. versus China.
24:21And my second question to you would be, in the entire war that we're seeing between India and the U.S.,
24:27is Trump pushing Modi administration towards China?
24:31Are we looking at alternatives, BRICS, SEO?
24:34Look at the conversations that are happening there.
24:37Yeah.
24:37So, on the Chinese economy, it's probably growing around 4% to 5%.
24:43But it's already a big economy.
24:46It's maybe almost 20 trillion U.S. dollars.
24:52And if you grow 5%, it's a lot.
24:57You grow more than, like, a big country's economy every year.
25:01You add on top of it.
25:03So, there are things working in the interest of China.
25:06They educate 12 million students every year, graduate.
25:12Three and a half are engineers.
25:16They also have a huge manufacturing critical mass.
25:22And they're fast in pivoting, these manufacturers.
25:26So, you suddenly need something else.
25:28And then they pivot towards that because they have their competence.
25:30But they have other challenges.
25:32You know, the state-owned enterprises are very big.
25:37They also need to make sure that they have also startups, entrepreneurs, and innovators.
25:46That is a good climate for that.
25:49So, but China is also leading now in many technology areas.
25:57They're already leading on everything that is related to renewables.
26:03The solar panels that, you know, deploy in India are from China.
26:08Absolutely.
26:09They could have been produced here, but you might not even have those minerals.
26:13You have them.
26:14You know, rare earth is not rare.
26:16It's all over.
26:17But no one really wants it in their neighborhood, these open minds.
26:22And India being a democracy, you know, like, if someone wants to put something in your backyard
26:27in India, it can take decades before you get it done because there's so many people involved.
26:33That's a strength, but it's also a weakness.
26:35So I would say that it's clear that also China is now taking the lead on the electrical vehicles.
26:43And they're big.
26:45EVs are big.
26:46There will be more and more EVs in the future.
26:50But there's also other nations that are there.
26:53Gita, by the way, was one of the first in, certainly in our office, to get an EV vehicle.
26:58So she was ahead of her time.
26:59She was ahead of her time.
27:01Are you able to charge it many places?
27:03Yes.
27:03Not many places.
27:04I have it at home.
27:05Yeah.
27:06So I don't go to other places to charge.
27:08But it is a difficult...
27:09That's an infrastructure problem that the government has to address.
27:12It is.
27:12Like you have this worry all the time.
27:14Oh, will I then just stop on the road?
27:16It's called mileage anxiety.
27:17Yeah.
27:17Yeah.
27:18I can feel it.
27:19I can feel that, too.
27:20So that's why, you know, it depends.
27:22In Norway, my home country, there's charges all over the place.
27:25But if you go a little bit south in Europe, from Geneva, where I live, you get anxious.
27:31You know, like, you know that...
27:32Where will I get the next charge?
27:34It's difficult.
27:34But you're also right on your thesis of the G2.
27:38The G2, U.S., China.
27:40U.S., close to 30% of the global economy.
27:43China, 20%.
27:44That's half of the global economy in two countries.
27:47And they're fierce competitors.
27:50They're fierce competitors.
27:51They will continue to be so.
27:52Hopefully, there will be no worse, you know?
27:55So, but competition can be positive.
27:58It can be negative.
27:59To your question about China and India and how this played out, I already said, it's not
28:06a bad thing that China and India know is on better speaking terms.
28:12There can be a lot of good things that China and India can do together.
28:16But if you look at it real, real politically, you know, you have a big panda and you have
28:24an elephant that is also quite sizable.
28:26And they have, you know, China meets China and Myanmar, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, you know, and these nations have their interests.
28:47And India is not always thrilled about this and maybe vice versa.
28:54So, America is not a competitor in the region with India.
29:00And yet, if I may, America is also now coming into this region once again.
29:06Should that be a cause for concern for India?
29:09And is it already a cause for concern for countries like China, for example?
29:13Yesterday, the American president was talking about getting into Afghanistan once again to
29:17take over the Bagram Air Base.
29:19American soldiers are carrying out exercises in Bangladesh.
29:22There's some operation that's already being talked about in Myanmar.
29:26So, do we see more uncertainty coming into this region?
29:30And does that adversely impact, if not immediately, the markets in the long run, 0.1, 0.2?
29:36There's already a conflict.
29:37You've spoken about Ukraine and Israel.
29:40Tensions in Taiwan.
29:41Now, will that put economy in tailspin?
29:45Borgi, before you answer that, BRICS, SCO, the alternatives, currency swaps,
29:50is that something that you're watching very carefully and that you should be as a...
29:57I think I was watching BRICS even more carefully a few years ago than I do today.
30:02Good for you.
30:03Because there are also...
30:06BRICS has grown a lot.
30:08So, you know, if you want to get something done in an organization,
30:11you also have to have common interests.
30:14And if there are too many players in the room,
30:17you'll get declarations that are more generic in its form.
30:25American presence.
30:27You know, as I said, America is a major military player.
30:33But it's a superpower, sometimes also without superpowers,
30:38in the sense that, you know, you use Afghanistan.
30:41Afghanistan, they were in Afghanistan for 20 years.
30:46But now it's run by Taliban.
30:48It was run by Taliban when they started,
30:50and now it's run by Taliban again.
30:52That is a superpower.
30:53We had Vietnam, we had the Iraq War, we had the Korea War.
30:57You know, it's not easy to run other countries,
31:02even for a superpower.
31:04But I guess for India, it has its pros and cons,
31:11with also an American no abdication from the region.
31:16There's also been concerns in Korea that Americans are pulling out.
31:21We see the Americans pulling out, partly also from Japan.
31:24We have the Filipinos that want also,
31:26at least the current president wants an American presence there.
31:34In Europe, there are American soldiers leaving,
31:36and we still want them there.
31:39Germany has said they're more than welcome.
31:43So it's a complex situation.
31:50I would say Trump doesn't like wars, though.
31:53I think he's very reluctant to deploy American soldiers
32:00if it leads to an ongoing war where you see body bags coming back
32:06and it costs a lot of money.
32:07I think you can see operations like outside Venezuela,
32:10when he displays in the theater the power of the U.S.,
32:16you know, that's just striking.
32:21But more like moving, and maybe air base in a country or something,
32:29but, you know, a permanent war with insurgents or guerrillas,
32:37I don't think he really...
32:38But look at our concerns.
32:39But look at...
32:40You know, there's the trade war aspect,
32:42but look at our concerns from a security perspective.
32:44The United States continues to engage Pakistan
32:47and a military leadership in Pakistan.
32:50The field marshal was a luncheon guest at the White House
32:54soon after India's Operation Sindhur.
32:56They're meeting again at the UNGA.
32:58There's continuing defense cooperation.
33:00It comes at a time when only yesterday a pact was signed
33:03between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan.
33:05So for years, India has been successful in recent times
33:08to de-hyphenate India from Pakistan.
33:11For the longest time, we were hyphenated.
33:12Do you believe, from your vantage point again,
33:15that India now, for a variety of reasons,
33:18including the kind of robust economy we are,
33:20don't need to look over our shoulders anymore
33:22to what is happening in our neighborhood in Pakistan?
33:25Or should we be concerned if the Americans are seen
33:28to in some way cozy up to Islamabad
33:30or Islamabad cozy up, more likely, to the White House?
33:34Should we simply focus on what we believe
33:37is an India-first policy,
33:39not worry about the neighborhood at all?
33:41And we know about China's relationship with Pakistan,
33:45which has been a long-standing alliance as well.
33:47Should we feel hemmed in?
33:50So I think every country now is looking at
33:54strengthening their own military and military resources.
34:00India is using a little bit less than 2%
34:02of its GDP on the military.
34:07I think we will see also India increasing that
34:12in the years to come.
34:14And India also has that capacity.
34:16And India will also see that it has a capacity
34:19of manufacturing military equipment.
34:24This is really high technology, too.
34:27So it could possibly be something
34:30that is good for sovereignty and good for the industry.
34:35But while you could say, though,
34:37if you'd be very cynical,
34:39you could say that India visited Beijing,
34:43and then the U.S. warmed up a little bit
34:47with Islamabad.
34:48But, you know, when that deal is being made later
34:52that I think will come,
34:55it's a question of time between Modi and President Trump,
34:59I think that will go back more to what it was.
35:02And you just touched on it.
35:04Pakistan has had a very deep collaboration
35:09with China in the last years.
35:11And I do believe that you also faced
35:14some Chinese missiles a few months ago.
35:20And I think that's something
35:21that the Indian leadership has more put on their mind
35:27than maybe that luncheon.
35:30Luncheon is, you know, there is...
35:32But, you know, given these circumstances,
35:34one would have expected India and U.S.
35:36to be closer together,
35:37two powerful democracies working together
35:40against expansionist forces,
35:43you know, like China.
35:44However, that didn't happen with Trump.
35:46Or even now,
35:47while we're looking at a deal with America
35:49and looking at a deal with EU,
35:51often it happens it's so close and yet so far.
35:55And that's the Commerce Minister
35:57who said that about the deal with the European Union.
35:59Do you actually see that happen?
36:01Or does politics at times comes into play?
36:04Why is India exercising with Russia?
36:06Why is India still buying Russian oil?
36:08We are not the biggest buyer.
36:09As you very rightly pointed out,
36:10we are not violating any, you know, sanctions.
36:13And yet, this pressure on India.
36:16So, I think the U.S.-India relationship
36:21will go back more to where it was.
36:26I think this was just a few months of a hiccup.
36:30I don't see this as a structural change.
36:34Maybe I'm wrong, but that's not the way I look at it.
36:40And also, India has to diversify its sourcing
36:46of military equipment.
36:48It already happened, you know,
36:50it used to buy 70% from Russia.
36:52I think now it's down to 35% or something.
36:55And then, that has to be a calculation
36:58that New Delhi has to do.
37:05On the EU, President von der Leyen
37:09strongly underlined the importance of a trade deal
37:12with India.
37:15EU is 600 million people.
37:17Oh, absolutely.
37:17And it's the largest market in the world.
37:20So, then, India will need to also think through,
37:24is it then worth to make some compromises
37:27to make that trade deal happen?
37:31And the same, the EU needs to then think through,
37:33and EU needs to also approve it.
37:36Of course, there are also mavericks
37:39among the EU countries.
37:42We'll see that also with the Marcosaur deal
37:45that von der Leyen developed.
37:48Of course, it will be in the interest of EU
37:52to get the Marcosaur deal.
37:54It's the mavericks, except for the Scandinavians.
37:58They're very benign.
38:00Who remain very benign.
38:01We're just days away, Rajdeep.
38:02As Mr. Brenda knows,
38:04we're just days away from operationalizing
38:06the India-EFTA agreement.
38:09And it's a unique one in the sense
38:11that there is a promise to enable investment
38:14into the Indian market, hard money.
38:16But I want to come back to...
38:17Look, I need to tell you a story about EFTA,
38:20because many of your viewers,
38:22maybe, have never heard about EFTA.
38:24But it's this small trade organization
38:26for free trade agreements.
38:28And it is, together,
38:30the 10th largest economy in the world.
38:32Yes.
38:32But it's the only international organization
38:35where Norway, my hope,
38:36in our country, is a superpower.
38:38Absolutely.
38:38Because it's Norway, Switzerland,
38:41Liechtenstein, and Iceland.
38:42Iceland.
38:43But I think this can be an icebreaker
38:45also for the EU deal.
38:47The deal you made with EFTA
38:49could be a possible kind of blueprint
38:51also with the EU deal.
38:53If you can agree with Switzerland
38:55and Norway on agriculture,
38:58you can deal also with the French farmers
39:01and the producers of cheese.
39:06You know, Siddharth, before you go for the next question,
39:08just on a lighter note,
39:09the other superpower that Norway,
39:11by the way,
39:11his home country is building is football.
39:15The biggest star in the EPR
39:17is a Norwegian.
39:19Yeah, yeah, Mr. Holland.
39:20Mr. Holland, very good.
39:22He's the second most popular Norwegian
39:25after Mr. Brende, but go ahead.
39:27Oh, yeah, no, no.
39:29Unfortunately, that latter part was fake news.
39:31Unfortunately.
39:32That is, yeah.
39:33But do you know we had this fortune list
39:36of the richest Norwegians the other day?
39:40Yes.
39:40And I think he now ended up,
39:43Mr. Holland, on that list.
39:44He's now worked, I think, like 500 million U.S. dollars.
39:50Good for him.
39:51He's amazing.
39:52He's a true Viking.
39:54I want to come back to the point about trade wars.
39:58Huge amount of uncertainty,
40:00and pretty much all major economies in the world
40:04don't know how to really get out of this phase.
40:06Your own reading of the situation, Mr. Brende,
40:10by when do you think President Trump
40:12is going to be satisfied and say that,
40:15okay, the trade resetting part of his agenda is over?
40:20In three and a half years.
40:23Okay, then a quick, one more quick follow-up,
40:26and this is to do with India.
40:28In all of this uncertainty,
40:29and you've been watching India,
40:31and you meet with policymakers, ministers,
40:34industry representatives.
40:36What should India be doing beyond the immediate conversations
40:40that we are having on trade with various countries
40:43in order to firm up our position
40:46as a significant global, economic, military,
40:51and strategic power?
40:51I think we've touched on some of it already,
40:55but over time,
40:58there is correlation between a country's economic strength
41:04and also its influence.
41:06That's where it all starts.
41:08Look at the Soviet Union.
41:09That was forever until it was no more.
41:12Why did the Soviet Union collapse?
41:14It was because they failed economically.
41:17They were not doing so badly in the 60s and 70s.
41:20They were real competitors.
41:21They had the big industries and all that,
41:24but then it just didn't work anymore.
41:27It didn't produce welfare.
41:31That's why America is still so strong,
41:33because they're economically very powerful.
41:35When you listen to the Americans,
41:37you can feel sometimes that they have been a victim
41:41in this global order.
41:44But how can you be a victim
41:45if you're 30% of the global economy
41:47and 5% of the global population?
41:49You know, that's not the victim.
41:51That's a winner.
41:52Because linked to that is what,
41:55when Siddharth and I had interviewed you several months ago,
41:57was you mentioned ease of doing business.
42:00You mentioned inequalities that still exist in that interview.
42:03You also mentioned health and education.
42:05I mean, you just mentioned in this interview
42:07the number of engineers that China is producing,
42:09the quality universities that China has.
42:11In the world top 100 universities,
42:13there are several Chinese universities.
42:15We don't have a single university in this country.
42:17I mean, is India's next step
42:18actually to produce far better universities,
42:23far better hospitals,
42:24so you improve your health indicators,
42:26but more importantly,
42:27just ensure inequalities reduce
42:29by improving the ease of doing business?
42:32That hasn't happened to the extent
42:34that many believe it should have.
42:36Reforms are seen to be still incremental in India.
42:40They're not seen to be an article of faith.
42:44Do you agree?
42:46So, the proof is in the pudding.
42:48You cannot complain
42:49when you have 7% economic growth.
42:53We should be growing at 10.
42:54I think with more reforms,
42:57you could maybe see that.
43:00But, you know, politically...
43:01But growth necessarily does not mean
43:03decrease in inequality.
43:07The disparity exists,
43:08even in that growth.
43:09Yeah.
43:09But, you know,
43:10then my short answer would be,
43:12like,
43:12if you had then slower economic growth,
43:15inequalities would even be wider.
43:19And a prerequisite for dealing with inequalities
43:22is also growth.
43:24And I think India saw that.
43:25For many years,
43:26you had a different policy.
43:28Maybe you sliced the cake
43:31in a very meticulous way.
43:36But, you know,
43:37what you have to do
43:38is to bake a bigger cake or pie.
43:41And then it's also more likely
43:43that more people will benefit from that pie.
43:45Then it's up to,
43:47of course,
43:48to the leaders
43:49to make sure
43:50that there's inclusiveness in this.
43:53But, you know,
43:53if you go too far
43:55in just focusing
43:56on redistribution of wealth
43:59and not baking a bigger pie,
44:02you can also stay poor,
44:05but you can be equally poor.
44:08I would, though, say,
44:10and this is,
44:10you were referring to
44:12last time we spoke.
44:14I think still, though,
44:15if I may,
44:17that India should invest
44:19more in education.
44:21I think the reason why,
44:23for example,
44:24the Nordic countries
44:25are doing well,
44:26we're also doing well
44:27on the Gini coefficient
44:29that is very low.
44:30We have good growth,
44:32but we also have equal opportunities.
44:35I think for India,
44:37it's good to have
44:38great universities,
44:40but the talent you have,
44:42you will need to have schools
44:45for every child
44:47that is of a certain standard.
44:50And, you know,
44:52in my country, Norway,
44:5398% of the kids
44:55go to public schools,
44:59and they're good.
45:01They're not maybe
45:02as amazing as you get
45:03if you pay $200,000
45:05for a school,
45:06but, you know,
45:06you also have to be
45:08cost-effective.
45:10And here,
45:10I think that this is possible.
45:13Also with the new technologies,
45:14now you can say
45:15that if a teacher
45:17is not good
45:17at teaching algebra,
45:19you have 10 minutes
45:20of the best teacher
45:21in the world
45:22up there
45:23showing a video
45:24how you then do algebra,
45:26and then the teacher
45:26can be available.
45:28Maybe he can
45:28or she can correct
45:29some of this.
45:30You think the AI
45:30will be a better teacher
45:32than a human teacher
45:33in the future?
45:35I think there is
45:36the combination.
45:37Of course,
45:38you need humans there.
45:39The kids also need
45:41someone overlooking it.
45:43But my main point
45:44is that
45:45if you go into
45:45a classroom today
45:47in India,
45:47it looks almost the same
45:49as they did 50 years ago.
45:51If you go into
45:51a hospital today,
45:52you cannot recognize it.
45:54It's all technology
45:56and all this
45:56all over the place.
45:58So for India,
45:59when you grow richer,
46:02I would start investing
46:04in education
46:06and research.
46:07Then I think
46:08the hospitals
46:09and all that
46:10will come later on
46:12because you will
46:13also then grow
46:14a bigger pie.
46:15I know we are
46:18completely running out of time,
46:19but I have to ask you this
46:20because a lot of focus
46:21on Trump.
46:23There is a huge anxiety
46:25that I see
46:25when President Trump
46:26speaks of de-dollarization.
46:28Every time he sees
46:29countries coming together,
46:31currency swaps happening,
46:32he thinks the world
46:33is de-dollarizing
46:34and he'll punish
46:35those countries
46:36like he did India.
46:37And he spoke to India
46:38about not daring
46:40to go ahead with BRICS.
46:42Do you see a future
46:43where de-dollarization,
46:44a dollar as a currency
46:45is not,
46:47or dollar is not
46:48the main currency?
46:49Is that even
46:50in the realm
46:51of the near future?
46:54Not so likely,
46:55I think.
46:56But of course,
46:57you cannot totally
46:58exclude the development
47:01where we're relying
47:03less on the dollar.
47:04But capital
47:05is like water,
47:07you know.
47:07it flows
47:09where the person
47:12that owns
47:12the currency
47:13feels that
47:14it's most protected
47:15and you don't want
47:17it locked in.
47:18You don't want
47:18the country then
47:19to say in a day
47:20you will then
47:21make it harder
47:24to move
47:25the currency
47:26out of that country
47:27or whatever.
47:28Sorry.
47:29And the dollar
47:30is still
47:32very competitive.
47:33But Mr. Trump
47:34is also very open
47:35for crypto.
47:37He's changed
47:39a lot of laws
47:40now
47:40to open up
47:42for more crypto.
47:43So maybe
47:44cryptocurrency
47:45I think is,
47:48to be very frank,
47:49I think is a bigger
47:50challenge for the dollar
47:51than the potential
47:52brick currency
47:53because I haven't seen
47:54that brick currency
47:55and I don't think
47:56there is enough
47:57interest
47:58between the countries.
48:01You know,
48:03your current conversations
48:04right now in India,
48:05what is that conversation
48:07like and especially
48:08more access
48:09for Indian goods
48:10in the world market?
48:12So I think
48:14that India
48:16has
48:18okay
48:20market access,
48:22but it could be
48:23better.
48:23But then,
48:23of course,
48:24India,
48:24to get better
48:25market access,
48:27you also have
48:27to then assess
48:28other things
48:30markets in India
48:31with tariffs
48:31or market access
48:33to India
48:33that you would like
48:34to adjust
48:36to get better access
48:40in other countries
48:43because you have
48:45to have something
48:46to bargain with.
48:49And there,
48:51India has a lot
48:52to bargain with
48:53because you have
48:53relatively high tariffs.
48:55the challenge
48:56when I was
48:56trade minister
48:57in Norway
48:57is that we abolished
48:58all the industry
49:00tariffs almost
49:0125 years ago.
49:03So when I was
49:03bargaining with
49:04other countries,
49:05I said,
49:05no,
49:05we don't need
49:06to lower with you
49:07because you have
49:08nothing to offer
49:09because you already
49:10have full access
49:11to your market.
49:12But I still
49:14don't think
49:14that it was
49:16a good thing
49:16for Norway
49:17that we
49:18lowered the industry
49:19tariffs.
49:20Do you see an endgame
49:20to the Russia-Ukraine war?
49:22A time frame
49:22that this is the time
49:23that peace
49:24could be achieved,
49:25this is the road
49:25that could be followed
49:26or that war
49:28becomes indefinite?
49:29No, no.
49:29Every war needs
49:30to end
49:31and this war
49:32will also end.
49:34I think it's more
49:34a question
49:35will it end
49:35in half a year,
49:38a year,
49:39two years,
49:39or three years.
49:40I don't think
49:41in three years' time
49:42I don't think
49:43there will be
49:43a war in Ukraine.
49:44Okay,
49:45we're reaching the end.
49:47You know,
49:47we haven't discussed
49:48Mr. Vende,
49:50the Narendra Modi
49:51just turned 75.
49:54What's his biggest strength
49:55and biggest weakness?
49:57I think
49:58the strength
50:00of the
50:01Indian economy
50:03has a snowball effect.
50:07Part of your population
50:08live in the Himalayas
50:09so they're used to snow,
50:10not so much
50:11other places.
50:13But you know,
50:13the snowball is very small
50:14and then it starts to roll
50:15and it can become very big
50:17and can,
50:17like really,
50:19so there is
50:19a snowball effect.
50:20And I think
50:21Modi
50:22at least
50:24at the beginning
50:26was also introducing
50:27a lot of economic reforms
50:29that he is now
50:29seeing the yield of.
50:31And lately
50:32after the U.S. thing,
50:34maybe that was
50:34a blessing
50:35in disguise too.
50:36There are new reforms
50:37since I think
50:38that will be fixed.
50:39I think also
50:40that
50:40there is a lot
50:42of goodwill
50:43towards India
50:45globally.
50:46If you look
50:48at countries
50:49people like,
50:51people like
50:52India
50:53and Indians.
50:55I think it's important
50:56to stay that
50:57way too.
50:59It's always
51:00nice to be
51:01liked.
51:03But...
51:04You're not mentioning
51:05the weakness.
51:06No,
51:07that's not my job.
51:08Interesting.
51:09Okay.
51:11World Economic Forum,
51:12January 2026.
51:14What's the headline?
51:15What's going to be
51:15the theme this time?
51:17It's
51:17global dialogue,
51:20moving the world forward.
51:22Okay.
51:23As always,
51:24Mr. Brenda,
51:25what you're showing us
51:26is the glass half full.
51:28And that perhaps
51:28is what the
51:29World Economic Forum
51:30is attempting
51:31to showcase
51:32in January
51:33to see how this dialogue
51:34can take the world forward.
51:36We've had a
51:37wonderful,
51:38riveting conversation
51:39on a variety
51:41of issues.
51:42Thank you very much
51:43for your patience.
51:44And as I said,
51:45you and Eric Harland
51:46are competing
51:47for who's the Norwegian
51:49having the maximum
51:50influence
51:51on the world.
51:53Thank you very much.
51:54Thank you very much.
51:55Thank you very much.
51:55And you're wearing
51:56a Manchester City
51:57colored tie as well.
51:58That's on purpose.
52:00I love that color.
52:02Thank you very much
52:02for this wonderful
52:03conversation.
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