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00:00Why are we so resistant to change and what can we do to challenge the status quo?
00:05And how do invasive species threaten nature and their way of life?
00:10We'll be looking into all this and more on 10 Things to Know About.
00:22This week we're looking into the eye of the storm and exploring ways we can prepare for more frequent and extreme weather events.
00:30Emma, Darwin, Ophelia, Farrah, Charlie, not the ensemble cast of a weird Shakespearean play, but the names of some of Ireland's most destructive storms.
00:52Storm Eowyn, which hit in January 2025, was one of the most violent storms in generations, resulting in extensive power outages that affected hundreds of thousands of homes and businesses.
01:06On the Galway coast, Mace Head experienced its brute force.
01:10And I'm here to meet Brandon Cray, who was part of the Metair and team forecasting and tracking the storm as it approached Ireland.
01:17While storms are low pressure systems, they're the same weather systems that we get throughout the whole year.
01:23The reason we have any weather today is because there's a low pressure system at the moment between Ireland and Iceland,
01:28which is directing this westerly flow onto us here in Mace Head.
01:33To deserve a named storm, the winds need to be generally above orange level threshold for a number of counties for a number of hours as well.
01:42Orange warnings are above 65 kilometres means and 115 kilometres gusts.
01:47And Storm Eowyn was one of the biggest ones that we've had in a long time and a lot of people were impacted it.
01:52And Mace Head is where the records were broken.
01:55Tell us what happened back in January.
01:57We received mean wind values of up to 142 kilometres an hour here, which is hurricane force,
02:04and a gust of up to 184 kilometres an hour, which today it's windy.
02:10We're being blown around a little bit, but it's only 33 kilometres mean here.
02:13I can't imagine what 184 must be like here. It's terrifying.
02:18I don't think we would have been able to stand had we been here during Eowyn.
02:21Why was it so strong? What was the science going on in it?
02:24So Storm Eowyn formed initially out far into the Atlantic due to a strong thermal gradient,
02:30so there was really cold air to the north and warmer air to the south,
02:34and that causes circulation, which causes the storm to begin to develop.
02:38As well as that, in the upper atmosphere, we have the jet stream moving along,
02:42which is a thin band of really strong moving air.
02:45And once that interacts with the circulation at the surface, you get rapid development.
02:50As well as that, there is a phenomenon called a sting jet phenomenon,
02:54when the jet stream itself manages to fall through the atmosphere slightly due to cold, dry air just behind the storm system,
03:03and the momentum transfer of the jet stream down to the surface is where we get those really strong corridors of air.
03:10And what that event is calling something?
03:12A sting jet.
03:13Sting jet. It sounds dangerous.
03:15And it wasn't just wind. Eowyn created a storm surge that pushed the sea to new heights.
03:32There was record of up to two and a half metres in Galway dock during the storm system.
03:38Luckily, though, that coincided with low tide.
03:42At the time, there was small amounts of flooding near car parks in Salt Hill and Galway.
03:47But had it happened during high tide a few hours later,
03:50then there would have been much more devastating flooding in Galway and around the west coast.
03:55To predict the weather, forecasters combine observations from radars, satellites and weather monitoring stations
04:02to build a detailed picture of atmospheric conditions.
04:05They then input this data into supercomputers that run complex equations to simulate how the conditions may change.
04:14The issue with that is the weather is a chaotic system,
04:17and chaos doesn't necessarily mean that it's unpredictable.
04:19It just means that if there's any small error at the start,
04:22then that error can propagate to large error further down the line.
04:27The way that we deal with that as meteorologists is we use what's called ensemble forecasting,
04:32which is when we rerun the forecast with slight differences in those initial conditions,
04:37and we see where the different trajectories go.
04:39And once there's enough confidence, enough of those members going for a certain solution,
04:44that's when we issue our warnings.
04:46At its peak, Storm Eowen knocked out of power to over 700,000 customers,
05:04with some remaining without power for weeks.
05:06Infrastructure was damaged and entire forests were destroyed.
05:10So what happens when the next day Eowen hits, in a warmer world?
05:15To understand how future storms might affect Ireland,
05:18researchers are analysing data from previous storms such as Ophelia,
05:22which hit Ireland in 2017.
05:24It was the worst storm to affect Ireland in 50 years.
05:27MetAeron researcher Tatiana Coquina is re-examining Ophelia with the future in mind.
05:33It was originally a tropical cyclone that originated off west coast of Africa.
05:43And usually those tropical cyclones, they would go westward and hit the Americas.
05:47But sometimes, on rare occasions, they would curve and rear off to the north Europe
05:53and make landfall in Ireland.
05:55And that's exactly what happened to Ophelia.
05:57What I'm trying to do at the moment is I'm trying to figure out how storms such as Ophelia
06:02might happen in the future warmer world.
06:05So first thing I do is I try to recreate Ophelia as it happened.
06:10And then I, bit by bit, heat up the atmosphere and the sea surface
06:15and change the humidity and other parameters that are relevant to storm creation.
06:20Interestingly, the path it took didn't change.
06:23It still stayed on the same track.
06:25However, I do see a deeper and stronger storm with much higher winds and a much lower pressure.
06:31So why does a warmer world mean stronger storms?
06:36Tropical storms feed off and are created from the energy that is passed from the sea surface,
06:44from warm water into the air.
06:47And as long as the sea surface is higher than 26 degrees, you can get a storm.
06:53And the thicker the layer of that warm water is, the more energy the storm can absorb and grow.
06:59And so the fact that we're keeping all this heat trapped in our atmosphere means that the ocean is absorbing a huge amount of that.
07:06Heat, yeah.
07:07That's what's driving it. It's like adding fuel to the flames.
07:09It is. This heat from the ocean is the fuel for the tropical storm.
07:13The wild Atlantic coastline on a windy day like this is a spectacular sight to behold.
07:20But storms like Aon are a warning, not just of what is possible, but what is coming.
07:26Storms are getting stronger and more frequent.
07:29So it's essential that science keeps pace and helps inform how we adapt and minimise the impacts of extreme weather events.
07:36Forests are a vital part of our lives.
07:53They are our timber suppliers, wildlife habitats, the lungs of the planet and a peaceful place to commune and connect with nature.
08:02But as storms become more frequent and intense, Ireland's forests are taking a battering.
08:09The impacts of Storm Aon on Ireland's forests were devastating.
08:14John Sherlock has been a forest owner since his father Pat passed away in 2011.
08:19It's a family farm, so I think we've been here six, seven, eight generations.
08:24My father had developed Parkinson's, so he wanted something that he could be an interest in,
08:30but something that wouldn't need physical activity.
08:34To step into this was a step into the unknown for him,
08:37because he knew very, very little about forest here or anything to do with it.
08:42So John, what are we looking at here?
08:45So this was a plantation that we planted back in 2003.
08:50It was a Norway and Sitges Bruce.
08:53It was completely wiped out in January in the Storm Aon.
08:58Sixteen and a half acres flattened in one night.
09:05At the time, I was thinking, is the roof going to blow off the house?
09:10I never actually thought about what we're going to happen here.
09:13And that must have been a huge shock to you.
09:15Oh, I couldn't believe it because it was the one thing I never thought about.
09:19Up until now, we were thinking the risks to our forestry was insects and disease.
09:25I never thought the wind was going to be the one that'll do it.
09:29In the aftermath of this unprecedented weather event,
09:32forestry advisers like John Casey were instrumental in providing support to impacted forest owners.
09:38Can you give me a sense of the scale of damage that was caused?
09:43So you're looking at about 26,000 hectares.
09:46That is, the amount of timber that came down would be about two and a half times the annual cut.
09:51The emotional shock for forest owners needs to be acknowledged.
09:56You're looking at people that had invested land, had pension funds,
10:00and then suddenly one night it was gone.
10:02Where do storms fit in terms of the different threats that our forests face?
10:06The first threat would probably be climate change in terms of changing temperatures, which are increasing.
10:12You're looking at rainfall patterns that are also being adjusted as well.
10:16So this affects trees.
10:18For some good trees on good land, it will actually make them grow better.
10:22But for other trees, it's going to make them more unstable.
10:25And that then leads into wind, for example.
10:27So wind would probably be the biggest physical threat.
10:29We have endemic wind events, and they're the storms that we have every winter.
10:35So we can plan for those with a catastrophic wind event.
10:39Or a little bit more difficult because, you know, there's very little you can do with a 180 km hour wind.
10:47So can we build forests that can stand up to the storm?
10:50Here in Wexford, researchers like Niall Farrelly are working on that very challenge.
10:55In an arboretum plot here in John F. Kennedy Park, here in County Wexford, this was planted in 1975.
11:04And it displays 80 varieties of Sitka spruce, and it's used to monitor the performance of the species in Ireland and its adaptation to the environment.
11:14And what type of monitoring are you carrying out here now at the moment?
11:17I'm doing an assessment of soil moisture.
11:19Soil moisture is governed by the characteristics of that soil.
11:22So, for example, here we have a well-drained soil, which is a proportion of balanced clay, sand and silt.
11:29And certain soils where we have a high clay content, it acts as a barrier to actually root penetration towards down into the soil.
11:37And it affects the anchorage of the tree.
11:39So trees don't like to grow into water.
11:43They want to grow into air pockets and air spaces.
11:46And that's where the roots develop, that's where they follow, they follow the air spaces.
11:50This is why this forest, which is 50 years of age, has maintained stability throughout its lifespan.
11:57Whereas other forests may have a barrier to root anchorage caused by high clay content.
12:16To help forest owners prepare for the future, researchers are also looking to create a wind throw early warning system.
12:23Wind throw is caused when the soil beneath tree roots fails to anchor the tree above.
12:28By integrating weather and soil data, a warning system would allow owners to take preventative action,
12:34such as felling vulnerable trees, before a storm hits.
12:38We could also come into the forest and pick up characteristic data from the forest which would indicate whether the forest is vulnerable,
12:45to blowing down.
12:47So for example, a forest acts like a bit of a plunger.
12:50People are familiar with a plunger, it goes up and down and you try to remove a blockage.
12:54Yes.
12:55These trees will move up and down as well and they will create a plunging effect as they break free of their anchorage.
13:03So we can start to see that at a stage.
13:06So with the forest, that's been damaged by a storm.
13:09How would that bounce back?
13:10We could look at the different species we're going to replant.
13:13We could look at, you know, deploying mixtures, for example, at tree species that are growing at different rates
13:19that basically create a softening of the wind profile.
13:26How do you make your decisions around what you are going to plant and to future-proof against future storms?
13:31I suppose to future-proof anything is going to be a challenge.
13:34I've spoken to our forestry advisor and he says, well, make sure he's a good look at the soil.
13:41Because that tree might, some of them trees mightn't suit your soil.
13:45But we've come to decision that we're going to plant different species and that, to try and alleviate possible damage.
13:52And if there was a catastrophe, another catastrophic event, be it disease, wind, weather, that possibly not all the trees would be knocked.
14:04Diversity is key, really.
14:05I think diversity. I think so.
14:07The trees were here long before we were. And with the threat of extreme weather and storms on the rise, we need to ensure that our forests are well-developed, diverse and more resilient,
14:24so that they can continue to protect and sustain us well into the next century.
14:54The Day After Tomorrow and even Sharknado.
15:17While Hollywood has often leaned into storms as a rich source of drama, our relationship with extreme weather has a long history in literature,
15:27including one particular meteorological maelstrom that's widely considered to have inspired Shakespeare's The Tempest.
15:35Stepping back in time to that of the Bard, we find the storm that set the scene for the play.
15:41It's 1609 and the English ship, the Sea Venture, is sailing towards the colony of Jamestown in Virginia.
15:49Caught in a hurricane and dragged off course, the crew spotted the uninhabited island of Bermuda,
15:56where the ship was deliberately driven onto the reefs to prevent it from sinking.
16:01The sailors then spent nine months on the island, building a new ship before eventually returning to England,
16:09where their accounts were written, and according to many scholars, likely read by Shakespeare himself.
16:15Because in that same year, The Tempest was published, which opens with one of the most famous storms in literature, conjured up by the sorcerer Prospero.
16:26In life, as in art, there's nothing like brewing up a storm for some tragic-comedy troubled waters.
16:35See you next time.
16:37If storms are going to become more intense in the future as the planet heats up, what can we do to build better coastal resilience?
16:56Well, in some places, concrete and walls will be used to keep the sea out.
17:00But elsewhere, Mother Nature can provide natural protection during storms.
17:05I'm on the flat, shallow sands of Dublin Bay to meet Iris Muller, who studies how sand, waves, wind and tides interact and shape our coastlines.
17:16So, Iris, when we talk about storms, we normally talk about the west coast of Ireland, but how does the east coast fare?
17:22Yeah, the east coast is very different. So, we're facing the Irish Sea.
17:26Yep.
17:27We're facing away from the direction from which most of our winds and storms come, which is the west.
17:33So, we're actually quite sheltered here, which is a bit dangerous because it might lull us into a full sense of security.
17:39What is protecting the beach here is what lies seaward of the beach, which is effectively another beach and another beach and another beach.
17:48All of that together offers pretty big protection because as the waves move closer to the shore, they start to break.
17:55And the breaking of the wave is a great mechanism for getting rid of the waves' energy.
18:00The waves that are coming in during a storm from the Irish Sea will start to feel the bed kilometers out because this is such a big accumulation of sand that gives us this shallow coastal profile, as we call it.
18:17In addition to the flat expanse of sand, nature has created a second line of storm defense.
18:24So, what we can see here behind me is what we call a sand spit. It's a coastal landform. It's an accumulation of coastal sand and materials that forms because the waves have approached the beach here at an angle.
18:39So, they've come more from the south than straight from the east. And in doing that, they've pushed the sand up and up and up and up onto the beach until they didn't have enough energy to carry any further.
18:52And so, the sand drops out and gets placed there. And so, the spit grows in the direction in which the waves are pushing the sand along the shore.
19:02If the beach wasn't here, then we would be relying purely on the protection that lies landwards of us, which is a man-made, human-made structure.
19:11And the vertical wall would take all the impact of the waves coming in against it.
19:16So, we have the train railway line there, you know, the main commuter line into Dublin, which is hugely important.
19:23Lots of industry, infrastructure and people living here. This natural feature is doing us a massive favor.
19:30This dynamic coastline is highly responsive to extreme weather and sea conditions. And the team have been monitoring annual changes in the sand spit near Booterstown.
19:51So, over the past 20 years, we've been able to use aerial imagery and also drone surveys to monitor the growth of the spit.
20:00And from 2005 to about 2008, it was just a little sandbar that was a little further south of where we are now.
20:08And that's when we started to see vegetation growing. So, as that vegetation started to grow on the sandbar, it would trap sands and it would stabilize the area, which allowed it to continue to grow.
20:19And so, by looking at those, then you can see what changes year on year.
20:23Correct. We can look at various areas of the spit that may be of concern for us during storm seasons.
20:29And then we can also look at the growth of the vegetation and monitor the spit as it's growing north here in Dublin Bay.
20:35What have you seen storms do to this sand spit over the past 20 years?
20:39We had a very active storm season at the end of 2024 in October and November.
20:44And that had a real impact on the southern end of the spit. And so, these very large waves were overtopping the vegetation and they were moving the sediment.
20:53And it actually caused what we call an overwash. And so, there's an area of the spit where all of the vegetation has been washed away and the elevation has also decreased.
21:03How reliable and sustainable as a protective structure is this sand spit?
21:09So, the spit itself, because it is naturally formed, it will repair itself over time if something is to happen out here.
21:17We don't know for certain what's going to happen in the future, of course.
21:21The waves can change, the storms can get more intense, and we might not have the same amount of sediment that's here now currently.
21:30Researcher Stephen Hoogle has built a tool to map the land between tides. By logging tidal variations and applying a bit of trigonometry, he can estimate the steepness of the shoreline and then layer in data on wave height to see the bigger picture of the bay's natural protection.
21:47We can use that to work out the point at which waves break. And in this case, what we're interested in is how wide that zone is, because the wider that zone is and the further offshore it is, the more wave energy is dissipated before it hits the shoreline.
22:03So, more energy is going to be lost by the waves down in this region?
22:07Exactly, before it ever reaches the shore. Whereas down here, we see that the zone is much narrower and it's actually much closer to shore, so we see that there's actually more energy is ending up on the shoreline.
22:16So, we can essentially work out what areas are better protected and what areas have less protection?
22:21Correct.
22:24Storms are becoming more frequent and intense, and the reality is that no wall of sand or concrete will stop them.
22:31But learning how to work better with nature, and by harnessing its own protective power, we can create a coastline and a future that's more resilient for our communities and our environment.
22:46That's our 10 things to know about storms. Next time, we try not to stir the hornet's nest of invasive species.
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