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00:00And right now we are two minutes away from the end of the trading day.
00:04Romain Bostic alongside Katie Greifeld taking you through to that closing bell with a global simulcast.
00:09It starts now. Tim Stenevich in the radio booth. Emily Grafeo by his side in for Carol Master today.
00:14Welcome to our audiences across all of our Bloomberg platforms, television, radio, our partnership with YouTube on a day where the market, that rally, got upended in a big way.
00:24A new, fresh social media post, Tim Stenevich, by the president of the United States implying that more tariffs on China could be coming.
00:32That's what did it. That was the crucial moment of the day that changed the trade.
00:35And for much of the day, we did see kind of the S&P 500 at its worst levels going back to April 21st.
00:41Then things fell on the S&P 500 to, what, more than 2.4 percent.
00:45Some selling into the close down 2.7 percent right now.
00:48Now it's the most going back to April 10th. We're talking like Liberation Day kind of thing.
00:52That's what I was going to say. The selling into the close.
00:55We just have one minute left and we're really seeing the tech stocks getting hit the hardest.
01:00Look at the NASDAQ 100 right now. Now down about 3.5 percent with that late date selling.
01:06Yeah, it's pretty amazing to see sort of the ripples across asset classes.
01:10Romain and I have been talking about that, of course.
01:12It's not just equities and bonds. It's also soybeans, copper, wheat, cotton, really far and wide implications here.
01:18Yeah, you saw a bit of a spike in the VIX up around that 22 level at one point in the session here.
01:24You're seeing a big bid go into certain havens.
01:27You talk about the record run in gold. Take a look at the record run in silver and look at the big bid that we're seeing today into the yen and into the Swiss franc.
01:35As we get the closing bells here in New York, I guess they're required to clap and they're required to cheer, but not a whole lot to actually cheer about.
01:42The S&P 500 looks like it's going to close the day down by about 180 points or about 2.7 percent.
01:50That's going to be the worst day for the S&P since April 10th.
01:53The NASDAQ 100 and NASDAQ composite each down more than 3 percent on the day.
01:58That looks like that's going to be the worst day for those names since April 10th.
02:03The Russell 2000 down more than 74 points or 3 percent on the day.
02:07That is going to be the worst day since April 10th.
02:11Yeah, taking a look at in the S&P 500, a deeper dive in there, pulling back the layers.
02:16Things don't look so good if you're long this market.
02:19425 stocks to the downside, only 78 stocks in the green today, Katie.
02:24All right, let's take a look at the circle, at the sectors, what the performance there looks like.
02:28It's not good.
02:28You only have one spot of green there, and that is consumer staples up about a third of a percent.
02:34Just tells you what a defensive trade this is today.
02:37You think about what the big loser here is, and it's tech, down about 4 percent as a sector.
02:43Those chip names in particular hit hard, but really right across the board, Tim.
02:48Well, it was tough to find stocks that moved higher today, but that was the task I was given,
02:52and I think I found four of them.
02:54Eight and a half percent to the upside for MP Materials, and USA Rare Earths also up 5 percent today.
03:00U.S.-listed rare earth and critical mineral stocks rose today.
03:04They extended gains after China unveiled new export curbs, and the U.S. government got more involved in the industry.
03:11Joe Doe was on our program, and he made the point that the export controls were announced a couple nights ago from China,
03:17but really gained a lot of attention in today's trade.
03:20Partly due, and a big part of that had to do with the president's comments a little earlier.
03:24And the increase in negotiating power that we're seeing when it comes to certain things, right?
03:30On the U.S. side, it's high-tech and chips, and on the Chinese side, it is these rare earths.
03:35Once again, MP Materials and USA Rare Earths up today in the trade.
03:39Also, protagonist therapeutics shares soaring on the day today.
03:44This rising to an intraday record after the Wall Street Journal reported that Johnson & Johnson is in talks to buy the biopharma firm.
03:50It's a clinical-stage biopharma firm.
03:52Shares higher to the upside of close to 30%.
03:55The company already has a partnership with J&J to develop therapies for immune conditions, including experimental treatment for plaque psoriasis.
04:02And finally, Applied Digital Shares higher today.
04:05This is the digital infrastructure and cloud services provider based in Texas.
04:09The company did report earnings after the bell yesterday.
04:13First quarter revenue was well ahead of estimates due to one-time income from tenant fit-out services,
04:17but the reason shares are higher is because the firm said it's now at advanced talks with a hyperscaler client for its second data center campus in North Dakota.
04:25Shares today higher by more than 16%, Katie.
04:28And I want to take a quick sidebar here and go to France because we do have some breaking news out of the French government,
04:33and that is Macron has renamed Sébastien Lecornu as France's new prime minister.
04:39Definitely a shock here.
04:42We know, of course, that he lasted about 27 days, I believe, was the number in this slot.
04:46But again, here's the headline, Macron renaming Sébastien Lecornu as France's new prime minister.
04:53All right, Katie, getting back to markets, it was a broad-based sell-off, so it wasn't hard to find decliners today.
04:59But I did try and find a couple companies that seemed to sell off related to some fundamental news in addition to just the broader macro sell-off.
05:07Levi Strauss falling 12% today.
05:09It was the worst intraday drop since April after the jeans maker's upgraded earnings guidance fell short of high investor expectations.
05:18So the stock had rallied 42% heading into the print.
05:22Some of that optimism was not met.
05:24One key disappointment, according to analysts, is that earnings growth for Levi's is failing to match the pace of sales expansion,
05:31and it's due to tariff and distribution costs.
05:34I'm also looking at Venture Global falling 25% down the most since March.
05:39This is a liquefied natural gas company lost a dispute with BP today and involved the sale of LNG cargos from a Louisiana facility on the spot market
05:48rather than to customers with long-term contracts.
05:52Analysts were surprised by the result of this dispute and the BP win and view it as a negative with a potential impact of over $1 billion for Venture Global.
06:00So that stock, again, down over 25% or a little bit less than 25% decline for the day.
06:07Finally, we'll go back to tech, that broad sell-off.
06:09I'm looking specifically at the VanEck Semiconductor ETF.
06:12The ticker is SMH.
06:15The top holdings, NVIDIA, TSMC, Broadcom.
06:19Listen, it's still up 34% year-to-date, but it was getting hit pretty hard today, falling almost 6% to close out the day.
06:27All right, let's take a quick look at Treasuries.
06:29We did actually see a bid come back into that after we had seen earlier in the week the exact opposite.
06:35That push yields down across the curve.
06:38Most of the activity was kind of in the middle there, 5, 10, and 20-year, down about 8 basis points.
06:44And you also see a similar move on the 30-year, your 2-year yield, down about 7 basis points.
06:49And, of course, Tim, this all seems to link back to concerns about the U.S. government shutdown.
06:53But then, of course, that accelerated buying that we saw in that space after the social media posts by the president.
06:59Remember, President Trump had just been touting just over the last couple of weeks how he was looking forward to meeting with Xi,
07:05maybe sometime towards the end of this month or in the beginning of November, at least according to Trump.
07:09I don't know.
07:10He doesn't see a reason to.
07:11But it raises the question, Romain, about whether or not this is just the way that the president negotiates.
07:16I mean, isn't this what he does?
07:18He does this in public?
07:19He comes out with these statements.
07:21Sometimes they move markets.
07:22Sometimes they don't.
07:24And then maybe he does end up meeting with whoever he's supposed to meet with.
07:28Or he does end up getting what he wants.
07:30That's what we've seen play out over the last nine months.
07:32And in terms of what this all means for the equity market, we were just talking with Bloomberg News' Alex Semenova.
07:38She pointed out that a lot of these dips this year, even when it's related to geopolitical concerns, to tariff concerns, the dips have been bought.
07:46And so we really haven't seen a large-scale drawdown.
07:49Think about what happened after Liberation Day.
07:51There was a massive rally.
07:52If you were short the market, you really got hurt.
07:55So now it's kind of a wait and see what happens.
07:57Is this downturn more significant or do we just see stocks rise on Monday?
08:02I don't think I will ever forget what happened after Liberation Day.
08:04Those were some amazing intraday charts.
08:07But, you know, it does raise the question whether or not the fact that it is a Friday has something to do with why we aren't seeing this dip get immediately bought.
08:15There could be a hesitation out there to hold risk into the weekend.
08:19We know that, you know, social media never sleeps, so we could get more headlines then.
08:23But we were talking about this a little bit earlier.
08:25I've seen some folks raise the notion that maybe we'll see a revival of the taco trade.
08:29That is, of course, the idea that Trump always chickens out.
08:32It's a little bit rude.
08:33But it gets to the idea that this could just be part of the negotiation.
08:37Well, there's a bigger issue, too, here, which is also the idea that this is also happening against the backdrop of a 10-day government shutdown that's deprived us of the economic data that the market was sort of looking to to try to define what comes next with the Fed.
08:50We did get an update from the BLS saying that they are recalling some people, so they maybe potentially get that data out by the end of the month.
08:56The CPI data that was supposed to come next week, they're now saying that that could actually be cobbled together also before the end of the month.
09:03But, again, I mean, we're kind of just piecing this together here willy-nilly, and that means that if you are a bull, what conviction do you have to buy into this without any earnings, without any economic data, and without any semblance of peace in the tariff trade war?
09:18Well, you're not going to have to wait long to get earnings information.
09:20We hear from some of the big banks next week.
09:22We've got Goldman, Citigroup, Bank of America.
09:24They're among the banks that are reporting next week, and I think people are going to look really closely at commentary that we hear from Bank of America and Brian Moynihan about the quality of spending when it comes to consumers, about the extent that consumers are using their debit cards, how much cash they have, how much they're spending.
09:38Can I give you my contrarian take on that?
09:40Please.
09:40I actually think it's going to be less important this quarter.
09:42Because we already know they're doing well, and I feel like the banks, and forgive me if any of the big banks are watching, but you're not really representative right now of the economy writ large.
09:51You're representative of a very sort of narrow slice of the financial economy.
09:55But what about Bank of America that banks so many people?
09:58Yeah, I mean, you know, we'll get insights, but I would rather wait to hear from the other companies that are selling directly to the consumer.
10:06And more importantly, what about the AI trade and the CapEx spend there?
10:09Because that has been the driver of GDP.
10:11So that's what I want to hear.
10:12That's my contrarian.
10:13You just jinxed it.
10:14Now it's somehow going to be the most important week of bank earnings we've ever seen.
10:18I look forward to.
10:19And I'll be gone.
10:20I will be gone as well.
10:21Yeah.
10:22Are we going on vacation?
10:23We're going on vacation together, Romaine and I are.
10:25Absolutely.
10:25You guys.
10:26I'm going on a bike ride.
10:27I'm going on a bike ride with Tim.
10:28It's a tandem mic.
10:29Can't wait.
10:30I'm going to be in the back and let him do all the pedaling.
10:32All right.
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