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00:00I kind of find it fascinating that I guess investors are like, yeah, another downgrade.
00:03OK, you know, we kind of maybe thought it was coming.
00:05Not surprising.
00:06And investors, certainly the equity side of things, seem OK with it.
00:10Yeah, I mean, it also seemed to be OK with it on the bond market.
00:12You saw some buying on the long end on the 30 year when there was concern that, you know,
00:16it had gone above 5 percent.
00:18I don't know.
00:19Maybe maybe everyone's desensitized.
00:22I don't know what the answer is.
00:23I think that's a good part of it.
00:24I mean, 5.03 percent on the 30 year earlier today.
00:27But you just look at the reactions in the past.
00:29In August 2011, when S&P downgraded the U.S., the S&P lost 6.7 percent in August 2023.
00:35The S&P lost 1.4 percent.
00:36And now we're unchanged.
00:38Well, you have to also wonder, too, like we did hit that 5 percent level right in the 30
00:41year.
00:42So if that's really the top.
00:43So then you're going to bring in buyers and that's going to sort of be a self-correcting
00:46mechanism.
00:46Yeah, and it gets to this idea, too.
00:48I mean, you point out, you know, sort of the big outsized move that we had back in 2011.
00:52I mean, that was a shock, right?
00:53I don't think anyone really saw that coming.
00:55And as a lot of our guests have said on the program today, it's like, look, S&P
00:58already did it.
00:59Fitch already did it.
01:00Moody's, it was kind of like, you know, what took you so long?
01:02Yeah, exactly.
01:03Meantime, you got Fed officials saying, hey, folks, don't get too excited about rate cuts.
01:07Maybe we'll get one this year.
01:08We'll see what happens.
01:09All right.
01:10Well, the market is definitely taking Friday's news in stride here and maybe focusing a little
01:14bit more on the progress on that tax bill and some of the other efforts in Washington
01:18here to make things a little bit easier for companies.
01:20Green across the screen for at least three of the major indices here in the U.S.
01:24The Dow Jones Industrial Average up by more than 100 points or three-tenths of one percent.
01:29The S&P 500 is going to close up to just about five points or about a tenth of a percent.
01:33The Nasdaq Composite in the green, but we'll call it unchanged, only up about four points
01:37on the day.
01:37Similar move for the Nasdaq 100.
01:40Though in the small and mid-cap space, you still did see significant declines on the day.
01:44Dow Transports down three-tenths of a percent and the Russell 2000 down four-tenths of one
01:48percent, Carol.
01:49All right, Romaine, quick check on the S&P 500, guys.
01:52Kind of an even split here when it comes to winners and losers.
01:54So you've got, what, 255 names to the upside, gaining ground on this Monday.
01:58And Scarlett, 246 to the downside.
02:01All right, let's take a look at the IMAP right now.
02:03You've got seven groups in the green and four in the red.
02:08Let's start with the gainers here.
02:09Healthcare shares up almost a percent.
02:11Consumer staples and industrials each gaining about four-tenths of one percent.
02:14The biggest laggard is energy, losing about 1.5 percent right now.
02:191.6 percent.
02:20And in fact, for the year, it is down about 2.2 percent.
02:23We also have some weakness in consumer discretionary and tech as well.
02:27But those are more leaning towards unchanged.
02:30All right, guys.
02:30So kind of a mixed bag there.
02:31Let's get to some of the gainers.
02:33There were really some outperformers in the Monday trade.
02:36Paramount Group, ticker is PGRE.
02:39This one up as much as 20 percent during the trading session, finishing with a gain of about 13 percent.
02:44It's a read.
02:44It's a major office landlord.
02:47New York City, D.C., also San Francisco, about a $1.1 billion market cap surging, as we said.
02:52The company's board initiated a review and evaluation of strategic alternatives.
02:56Some speculation might that mean an outright sale of the company.
03:01And this is all coming after it named a new CFO and treasurer effective immediately.
03:05Keep in mind, Wall Street Journal also making some points about this company's had a lot of red flags that have been out there in the last few months.
03:11And so this company, you know, looking kind of to see what's next here in its next chapter.
03:17Take-Two Interactive, outperformer, up about 3.5 percent in today's session.
03:21It was a top gainer in both the S&P and the NASDAQ 100.
03:24Did report earnings last week.
03:26And we are seeing the analyst community come in and weigh in on those earnings.
03:31So analysts raising price targets for the company since it reported earning 16 changing price targets.
03:36The average change was up 11 percent.
03:3815 analysts raised price targets by an average of 12 percent.
03:41So some optimism on the street.
03:43And Novavax, talk about optimism, up as much as 30 percent during the session, finishing with a gain of about 15 percent.
03:51U.S. regulators fully approved the company's COVID vaccine.
03:54So easing some investors' concerns after the clearance was delayed.
03:57Just in time.
03:58Yeah, exactly.
04:00Exactly.
04:01Good stuff.
04:02So anyway.
04:03Well, it's not mRNA.
04:04So I think that if you needed different sourcing, that would be something for you.
04:08Yeah.
04:09I will say Moderna also an outperformer because maybe there's some, you know, different thinking.
04:14I think everybody thought the government was going to be so anti-vaccines.
04:17And yet this happens for Novavax.
04:19And so investors are also plowing into Moderna up about 6 percent today.
04:23OK.
04:23You got the gainers, Carol.
04:24I got the declinerers.
04:25I do want to just take a look.
04:26Barely.
04:26You had some trouble here.
04:27Oh, yeah.
04:28I just had to do a last-minute switch.
04:30But you know what?
04:31The team was great.
04:32They were able to switch it out for me.
04:33So I appreciate that.
04:34I want to start with shares of J.P. Morgan.
04:36Just imagine.
04:36No one would ever have known if Carol had been allowed.
04:38I know.
04:38I know.
04:39Isn't, you know, with friends like Carol?
04:41Do I come across like a little sister?
04:42I should.
04:43Killing me.
04:44You're killing me.
04:45One percent to the downside for J.P. Morgan.
04:48The company did reaffirm its net interest income forecast for the full year.
04:51They set an investor day earlier today.
04:54Shares fell earlier in the session, though.
04:56They hit a session low after an executive at the company said investment banking fees will fall.
05:01We also saw peer organizations fall as well.
05:04The company's CEO, Jamie Dimon, in a speech did warn against complacency in the face of a slew of risks.
05:10He cited everything from inflation and credit spreads to geopolitics.
05:14Ultimately, shares fell one percent today.
05:16I want to talk about solar stocks, in particular Sunrun, ticker RUN, down 7.8 percent.
05:21Shares of solar companies slumped.
05:23This after Republican lawmakers said that they had secured a commitment from leadership to end key clean energy tax credits earlier than planned.
05:31It's part of a sweeping deal aimed at allowing President Trump's giant tax and spending package to advance.
05:36Sunrun fell by about 7.8 percent.
05:39And finally, shares of Shake Shack, 1.6 percent to the downside.
05:42They fell after T.D. Cowan cut the recommendation on the company to hold from buy.
05:47They cited an already high valuation amid a challenging consumer spending backdrop.
05:52Well, here's the interesting part when it comes to the bond market, guys.
05:55I mean, coming into the session, it looked like we were going to see some pretty intense action.
05:58The long end was selling off by six basis points already.
06:01Then we reversed course and we actually ended with the whole curve lower by about two to three basis points.
06:06I do want to point out, though, that the 30-year yield still hit that 5 percent level.
06:10We hadn't seen that since 2023.
06:12And you look at a technical basis and we're looking at a golden cross, guys.
06:17Woo-hoo!
06:18OK, so the short-term moving average looks to break above the medium-term moving average.
06:23So 50-day crosses above the 100-day.
06:24That's a golden cross.
06:25That tends to be a bullish signal, which means higher yields.
06:28And you wonder at some point, are we at that tipping point where yields wind up directly hurting stocks?
06:33Yeah, it's a really good point, right?
06:35You kind of wonder where it all goes next.
06:38I have no good segue except...
06:40What?
06:40There's no segue.
06:41Just take it.
06:42Because it's awesome.
06:42All right.
06:43Let's talk about the maker of Dum Dums and...
06:45Who?
06:46What?
06:46What did you call me?
06:47That's what she calls you when you make a mistake.
06:51Dum Dums, lollipops.
06:53Oh.
06:54And then you also have, what, sweethearts?
06:55Or are you?
06:56Little candies.
06:57You know what they are.
06:58Well, apparently the maker, the CEO of the company, Spengler Candy Company, makes all this good stuff.
07:02Apparently, kind of pushing back on this idea of switching from synthetic dyes to natural colors, he's worried about the taste and maybe whether consumers will like it as much.
07:13Yeah.
07:14Take beet juice, for example.
07:16It turns out beet juice, it might be a nice red, but guess what?
07:19He says it tastes like beets.
07:21Yes.
07:21And that's an issue.
07:22Let me tell you, this guy is a national hero.
07:24That's an issue when it comes to candy.
07:24He should be in charge at HHS.
07:26I totally agree with him.
07:27Look, if you're going to eat candy, I mean, it's like when they have, like, upstairs, they have these healthy gummy bears, right?
07:33But, like, I don't...
07:34Oh, this is personal, guys.
07:34I mean, it is personal.
07:35I mean, I don't eat candy because I'm trying to be healthy.
07:37It's called candy, not vegetables, right?
07:39Yeah, thank you.
07:40So, you know, let me get my chemicals.
07:41Also, didn't they also say, like, it could be dangerous for allergies, too?
07:45Like, that was funny.
07:46Yes.
07:46Like, here's the made-up stuff.
07:48That's fine.
07:49But if we give you real things, your allergies could kick in.
07:51Well, so what you're saying is that candy just needs, like, a warning label.
07:54And then everyone's all good with everything, right?
07:57Doesn't it bother you guys that this red dye number three, which has been linked to cancer, and now they're only going to start phasing it out, I guess, in early 2027 will be banned?
08:06Isn't this the stuff that was already banned in makeup?
08:07Like, why is it even still there?
08:09But I don't know why you're even needing it.
08:12Why does it need two years?
08:12I don't know why you need it.
08:13Exactly.
08:14Carol Masser.
08:15But to Carol's point, I don't know why you need the dye.
08:18I mean, if you're eating something that tastes like, you know, it's not the flavor that the concern is.
08:23That's the concern if they use the dye.
08:24Bring on the beet juice.
08:25If it's clear, Crystal Pepsi.
08:26Remember Crystal Pepsi?
08:27It was so successful.
08:28What?
08:29What?
08:30No, it wasn't.
08:30No, I don't remember this at all.
08:31It's being totally facetious.
08:32No, I know, but I don't remember that at all.
08:33It was for a hot second in one commercial.
08:34I wonder what Oscar the Grump or Grouch.
08:36Or Grouch.
08:37Oh, nice segue, Carol, because it looks like Netflix is making a play for Disney, for that children's audience.
08:45Did you guys read the story that Netflix will be airing new episodes and old seasons of Sesame Street?
08:50I love this so very much.
08:51For people who've cut the cord completely and don't have PBS anymore, then you can get it now on Netflix.
08:56We used to have HBO.
08:56We used to be on HBO.
08:57You get all the reruns and the new ones.
08:59It was fantastic.
08:59That partnership was broken down.
09:01So it's so great that you now have a way to get it.
09:04Huge, huge Sesame Street fan.
09:05Well, and a way to get it.
09:06And what I really love about this, too, is that you have a way to get it without pain, because they are partnering with PBS on this.
09:11So they're actually going to, unlike HBO, which took it off PBS.
09:14I know.
09:15And you had to wait, you know, several months to see a new episode.
09:18Netflix isn't doing that.
09:19No.
09:19Yeah.
09:20They're going to air, when it airs on Netflix, it'll be airing on PBS.
09:22Letter of the day is end.
09:22So if you can't afford the, you know, however much it costs for Netflix subscriptions, you can just watch it there.
09:27And you can sit there with your dum-dum lollipop, pineapple, to be sure.
09:32Oh, gnarly.
09:33You don't like pineapple.
09:34Did you say gnarly?
09:35I did say gnarly.
09:37Because pineapple lollipop, what's the point?
09:39Just don't even eat it.
09:40Alex, are you into beet juice?
09:41Would you like the beet juice?
09:42She would like the beet juice lollipop.
09:44I like beet juice, but not with my dum-dum lollipop.
09:47The two should be separate.
09:48I'll do it with you, Carol.
09:49It's cool.
09:49All right.
09:49When's the last time you even have a lollipop?
09:51Bye-bye, dum-dum lollipop.
09:51No, I'm just kidding.
09:52Just kidding.
09:54Wow.
09:55You said it before.
09:57Wow.
09:57I guess it's better when we're just saying it.
09:58You're not that far away from me, you know.
10:00Hey, I'm protected in this glass shield.
10:02I know.
10:02I'm just telling you.
10:03All right, guys.
10:03That's a wrap.
10:04Good to be back together across platform.
10:06Radio TV, YouTube, Bloomberg Originals.
10:08We do love each other.
10:09I swear.
10:10I swear.
10:11We will see you.
10:12I know Alex is heading out.
10:14Scarlett's going to stick around with lollipop.
10:15She's already walking away.
10:18All right.
10:18We will see you again.
10:19Same time, same place tomorrow.
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