00:00The markets, one day they're happy about AI valuations, the other they think it's like the end of the world.
00:05And then in this mix you also have a lot more talk about a Fed cont because of the potential replacement for Jay Powell.
00:12What happens to AI valuations?
00:15Well, they're going up. We're moving into sort of bubbly territory.
00:20But the good thing about bubbles is they create handsome returns, at least when they sort of blow up or start getting bigger.
00:26Until a point.
00:26Until a point, and that's the point where you, of course, want to run.
00:29How do you call that point?
00:32That is incredibly hard, but it will probably start with a miss of expectations and sort of the feel, oh, we actually went too far looking into the abyss now.
00:41There's a lot of optimism, but it's solid.
00:43It's not TMT and dot-com bubble all over again in our view.
00:48It is productivity anchored, new instrument, artificial intelligence, Gen I, et cetera, et cetera, is here to stay.
00:56It has enormous money backing from the big tech companies that are loading up the hyperscalers.
01:04Everybody is rushing into this space in a situation where the geopolitics actually drive it because everybody wants to lead the AI arms race, if you will.
01:12So it has an enormous backing of investments.
01:15And therefore, this can go on for quite a while until then the music stops.
01:20But certainly the music is playing.
01:22It certainly is for now.
01:23You're expecting a Fed cut in December.
01:25Yes.
01:25Again, it could be, you know, the cycle with the, you know, high A evaluations and into, you know, a cut but still quite elevated interest rates could be tricky overall for the markets.
01:36Yeah.
01:37I mean, we've expected three cuts this year and we think we're going to get the December one and then they'll have to pause and take stock of the labor market, take stock of inflation, take stock of the damage.
01:48Honestly, the tariffs are going because there's nothing good about those and then the Fed will probably wait all the way into mid next year to do anything.
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