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00:00Hello and welcome to Guardian Talks. Today we are joined by a security expert and a public affairs analyst in the person of Alex Okonkwo to discuss the trend plaguing the country as we speak, the spate of kidnappings in Nigeria. I am Temitayo Olumofey. We'll be back in a moment. Stay tuned.
00:20Welcome to Guardian Talks, Mr. Alex Okonkwo. Thank you. It's a pleasure, yes. Okay, so let's cut to the chase. Why do you think schools in Nigeria continue to be such frequent targets for kidnappers, especially in the north?
00:43Okay, well, we call it our weakest belly, weakest underbelly. First, because there are far too many schools in the north for them to be protected. We cannot put soldiers in every school, and that is understandable. Nigerians will understand that.
00:58Secondly, because it is difficult to dissociate immediately the victims from the, what will I say, the culprits themselves, you know, because of the faith over there, because of the traditions, because of the ethnicity, when you will not be able to differentiate an Okada driver who is just trying to make means meet, and a potential bandit.
01:19It's not as if they wear a particular uniform. It's not as if they wear a particular barrette. You see what I'm saying? The people who are bandits, who are taking a drink in the morning, or if you have to, could be bandits at three o'clock in the morning.
01:30You don't know them. It's not, we call it asymmetric welfare. So it's not, it's not guaranteed. There are no confirmations. We, we, we, it's not as simple as it looks.
01:39So the complexity is, because of the north, because of the way the north is organized, they deal a lot with people from far north, which is Nigerian Republic, Burkina Faso, and all that.
01:48And all these people are, are Tuaregs, Fulanese, and Housers. So doing that separation is not as easy as that.
01:56While if you were to see bandits in the south of Nigeria, say, for example, a place like Ullo, very quickly they will be identified. You see what I mean?
02:03By their way of dressing, by their looks. So it is a little bit simpler for the bandits. I'm not saying it's a little bit simpler for them to go in and take people that look like them, than to come to a place where people are different.
02:15The religions are the same. They know the hours of prayers. There are a lot of things that work in their favor, if I may say it that way.
02:22And then most importantly, at the end of the day, these are the areas where we have the most porous borders.
02:28It is not as difficult as that to cross over to Nigerian Republic from Nigeria.
02:33It is even, it is more difficult in the south. Our southern borders are, yes, porous, but a bit more efficiently manned, if I would say.
02:42But in the north, with a thousand, over a thousand five hundred kilometer border with Nigerian Republic, you can imagine that it's going to be very difficult for our officials to be present.
02:51So there are many reasons why this happened. It's not necessarily ethnicity, it's not necessarily against Christians, but it is because it is favorable.
02:59There are favorable grounds for them to do what they're doing. So let us not let Nigerians think of something else, you know.
03:06Right. Okay. Now, what factors, political, economic, or security have changed or not since the Chibok kidnapping in 2014 that allowed this mass abduction to keep happening?
03:21Oh, well, we have not solved the problem. The Chibok girls, if you remember very well, more than 50 of them are still, are no more Chibok girls.
03:29Let's call them Chibok women. Let's call them married women. They've had children, they've been married, they've moved on in their lives one way or the other.
03:36Some were killed, some died because of sickness, some died at childbearing, you know, having a child. Others were rescued, some ransoms were paid.
03:45So there is a diversity of what happened. One thing that is sure, however, is that since that time, we have not really done everything properly.
03:53We still have three million out-of-school imagery children. I didn't say 2,000, I said 3 million.
04:00They are mostly men. I mean, 98% men. These are people, young men between the ages of, let's say, 16 and 21.
04:08These are, I mean, I'm not saying they are bandits, but it is easy to calculate that 10% of that could fall in the wrong hands because we have not solved youth unemployment.
04:18It's chronic now in Nigeria, especially in the north. The cost of living is very expensive. It's more expensive in the north than in the south, contrary to what Nigerians think.
04:26Because, for example, if you buy your patrol in Lagos for 900 naira, the patrol in any of these northern cities is 1,300 because it has to be transported there.
04:35Then you'll find that it's there in the south. You see what I'm saying? There's still transport to add.
04:39Then we don't have the same opportunities that we have in the south like in the north.
04:43So the typical young man in the north is either a farmer or a transporter or eventually working one way or the other for the bandits, either through giving information or he himself is recruited.
04:55So we have not done the socioeconomic aspects of it. What we have tried to do over 15 years was the military aspect.
05:01But I've been saying this in every platform I do. The military aspect of this thing, and it's going to shock many of your listeners, is only 30% of the job.
05:09That is just an example. But there are other, it's not just their majority. There are a lot of people who don't have what they're doing.
05:15A young man. Look, let me keep clear to Nigerians. All the bandit groups and all the terrorist groups across the Sahel are also HR agencies.
05:24So they are human resources agencies. They are also employing because it's a business.
05:29They are looking for healthy men who can do the job and they can do some kidnapping and adoption and get money for it.
05:35And today, the value of $100,000 might be what it is in Lagos, but if you give a young man $100,000 somewhere in the north in Zampara, in the village of Zampara, you've given him almost $10 million.
05:45It is almost the equivalent. And sometimes they give them bikes. And this guy can use the bike to move around while he's there.
05:51So he looks like as if he has more than the other village guy who doesn't have anything.
05:55So we have to understand what we are combating here. It is not just ideological.
05:59We are combating something economical. And so the forces that we put in front should also be economical.
06:05What is the reason why a young farmer in a village, in a remote village in Zampara, should feel more Nigerian than you and I?
06:12I mean, have you given him any reason to feel more Nigerian than you and I?
06:15It doesn't have any reason, both economic and social.
06:17And so we have a real war in front of us and it is not just military.
06:21Right. Let's quickly look at what President Tinobu said.
06:26He said that his special advisor, that's Bayo Nonuga, said the president has ordered the withdrawal of 100 policemen from very important persons,
06:36saying that it's a part of the strategy to combat terrorism in Nigeria.
06:41Do you think that's part of the solution or it's going to do something significant at this point in time in Nigeria?
06:47Well, I always often, and this has put me in a lot of trouble on social media.
06:53You know, social media is very strong in Nigeria.
06:56I always try to say, let us not overrate the presidency or underrate the presidency.
07:01A lot of the things they do are symbolic as well.
07:04So this is a very symbolic gesture, trying to say, OK, we're going to get more policemen.
07:08So we're going to take away policemen for VIPs.
07:11But I've always said it everywhere I go.
07:13These are not the policemen who are going to fight bandits.
07:15You need a trained special unit to fight bandits.
07:20It's not the policeman you see on the road or that protects the bank that is going to fight against these bandits
07:25when they come at 300 of them in the morning somewhere in a village near Bikin, Bikin, Kevin.
07:31So it's not going to work.
07:32But the president has the right to do symbolic things.
07:35And this is one symbolic gesture.
07:36But the real thing is, I also heard he was going to say, he said we're going to employ 30,000 policemen.
07:41That number should be 30,000 policemen yearly and for the next five years.
07:46Because don't forget, as you're employing policemen, recruiting policemen, others are retiring.
07:52So the balance is still there.
07:54There's still an equation to find.
07:56And then because you recruit a policeman who has gone into recruit training for nine months,
08:00doesn't mean he is combat ready.
08:02He just has the principles of policing, but he's not combat ready.
08:06So it's an evolution.
08:07Look, we have to be ahead of the game of banditry.
08:11Otherwise, we'll always be two steps behind.
08:13Right.
08:14Now, let's look at this whole issue of ransom payment.
08:18What role do ransom payments play in driving these kidnappings?
08:21And how can the government and the civil society break that incentive?
08:26That's a good question.
08:27But yeah, I'm sure some of the answers you know already.
08:29If we could find a way of paying ransom in cowry or in cow or in chicken or in motorbikes,
08:36Nigerians will have done it.
08:38It will have been better.
08:39But unfortunately, as we speak, this banditry that is going on,
08:43the wave of banditry that we have in the last 10 years is purely financial.
08:47So the people who go into it either go into banditry or go into helping some foreign nationals,
08:53I don't want to mention the country, who are into illegal mining.
08:55You see what I'm saying?
08:56If you look at these two activities, they are very, very profitable.
09:00I want to say even besides oil and gas and besides banking,
09:03these are the most profitable businesses in Nigeria now.
09:05If you work for an illegal miner and give him information,
09:09you could be getting $1,000 or $2,000 a month without doing anything.
09:13All you are doing is just giving information.
09:14That's a lot of money in Nigerian currency today.
09:16So let us be clear.
09:20Paying ransom will always exist.
09:22And governments should always say they are against it because that is the principle.
09:25In practice, if any of us find ourselves, unfortunately,
09:29with somebody from our family being kidnapped,
09:31the first thing we will do is to raise money.
09:32You will not be saying, let us wait for government intervention to see if your cousin will be saved.
09:37Nobody is going to do that.
09:39So in principle, the government should always say that.
09:41The United States does not pay ransom officially.
09:43France does not pay ransom officially.
09:45But they get their people released.
09:46Trust me, it's not always by military action.
09:49Because at the end of the day, the objective is to save the victim, right?
09:52The objective is not to kill the bandits.
09:54Because if it was to kill the bandits, you could easily bombard the place and everybody would die.
09:58But the objective is to save the victims.
10:00So as long as the objective is to save the victims, ransoms will always be paid.
10:04In what form, I don't know.
10:05Who will be paying it, we don't know.
10:07But definitely ransoms are being paid.
10:09Because these bandits are buying fresh arms.
10:11They are getting new recruits.
10:13They are getting new clothes.
10:14They are getting animals to feed themselves.
10:16And they are even getting leisure.
10:18A little bit of leisure and pleasure when they are free.
10:20So all these are monetized.
10:22Right.
10:23Now, from a security analyst expert here,
10:26what immediate and long-term reforms are needed to protect children in schools
10:31and to restore confidence in Nigeria's security architecture?
10:35Because as we speak, a lot of schools have been shut down until, I think, probably early next year
10:41to see how they can put measures in place to avert something of this kind.
10:46So what's your perspective to this?
10:48Okay, that's a two-part question.
10:51The two questions are not related.
10:52First, you said schools.
10:54How do we secure schools?
10:56Let's declare it's not 100% possible.
10:59Because why would you secure a school in Kebri and not a school in Zamfara?
11:03Why?
11:03Is there any reason?
11:04There's no reason.
11:05All the schools are equal.
11:06All the schools have the same risk.
11:07And we don't have enough men and women to protect all the schools in the north.
11:11I'm just using the north as an example.
11:13If we come to the south, it even becomes catastrophic.
11:15But let us use the north, for example.
11:17You cannot protect all the schools in the north.
11:19So let us get that clear and aside.
11:22Second thing, we can do our best, which means a little bit of technology,
11:26a little bit of surveillance, a little bit of satellite.
11:29Those things are expensive.
11:30They are not cheap.
11:30You need to have manpower.
11:32As we speak currently, and I can tell you for a fact,
11:35the defense headquarters and the defense,
11:38the military defense has a lack of technicians that can man those things.
11:42We need to be able to train people.
11:44So it's not enough for Nigerians to say, go and protect the schools.
11:47Who are those people going to use the drones?
11:49Who are those people going to be able to digest the information from the drones?
11:52The drones give you information in latitude and longitude.
11:55It doesn't give you, it's not registered at, it doesn't write kebri.
11:58It writes in geographical terms.
12:01You need people that will understand it and give information to the military
12:03so that we don't go and kill the wrong people or we don't go and bombard the wrong...
12:07That's why you have mistakes.
12:08Mistakes do happen because these things are very technical.
12:10Secondly, it's very financially engaging for the government.
12:13And then thirdly, these equipments have to be maintained and serviced.
12:17So generally, it's done abroad.
12:19We can't do that now in Nigeria.
12:20So it will not be easy to tell Nigerians...
12:23Our job is to tell Nigerians the facts.
12:26It will not be easy to protect all schools.
12:27Because that said, I think each school and each, let me say, state minister of education
12:34can do the ones they can do to give information to security agencies.
12:40You cannot have barracks in every school.
12:41It will not work.
12:42And even if you have...
12:43Okay, let us play a game here.
12:45Even if you were to have three soldiers in every school, okay, in the north,
12:49do you know that three soldiers are insufficient?
12:50Because if they are attacked by 200 bandits, what are the chances of...
12:55So it doesn't even work.
12:58It doesn't even work.
12:59So what we can do, what we can do is what some states are doing.
13:02I know that there are some states in Nigeria where students don't go anymore to the boarding school.
13:06So they finish school at 1 and go home.
13:09Because oftentimes, these attacks happen early in the morning.
13:12And it happens in boarding schools where children are already there early in the morning.
13:15So if we move a bit of these danger zones to these schools, it already reduces the chances.
13:22Then I've been saying it for almost 10 years.
13:24We must start what I call forest rangers.
13:27That is a specialized unit made of policemen, soldiers, civil defense.
13:32It's a unit that you create from all these other agencies.
13:36Because they will be trained locally to intervene quickly.
13:40If we don't have that, we will always be a bit behind.
13:43You cannot protect schools, but if you can do quick intervention, you see what I mean?
13:47When the vigilantes at the school signal that they have a problem, within 10-30 minutes,
13:53a support group should be able to intervene.
13:55But if we are going with that fallacy that we should defend all the schools, it is impossible.
13:59There are probably 300 schools in the cabin.
14:02And if you were to use five soldiers in every school, that's already more than 1,500 armed soldiers.
14:07That's impossible.
14:08Going around the state, the countries, you will not be able to do that.
14:11So, let us do what we can do.
14:13Let us man the schools with local vigilantes.
14:16Let them have radios and be able to inform units that are close by.
14:21But we should create a rapid response team made of policemen and soldiers.
14:26It's a special unit, like other countries have.
14:28Egypt has it.
14:29Brazil has it.
14:30France has it.
14:31South Africa has it as well.
14:32So, it is something that we have to do.
14:36Thank you so much, Mr. Alex Okonkwo, a security expert and also a public affairs analyst.
14:42We've been able to delve a little, or deeper rather, we've been able to delve deeper into the spirit of kidnappings in Nigeria.
14:49And he's made some solid suggestions.
14:50And I hope the one that really caught me was the forest rangers you spoke about, because I feel like if we have that in place, at least before any terrible oppression takes place, if they are alert here and there, it might not be so sexual at the end of the day.
15:08And then we have our people, we don't have to start dealing with kidnappings in the country.
15:12Thank you so much for your beautiful and intelligent suggestion.
15:17All right.
15:17Do have a great day.
15:19Same to you.
15:20Have a beautiful day.
15:21Yeah.
15:22Thanks for joining us today on Guardian Talks.
15:24Make sure you stay safe and informed.
15:26I am Timmy Tyer, or Lumofair.
15:28Do have a great time.
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