00:00Dr. Blaise Ijebo, who is the Director, Risk Management Department, Central Bank of Nigeria,
00:06who will deliver a keynote reflecting on Nigeria at 65, and of course, how we intend to shape the next 65 years.
00:17Please make a round of applause for him.
00:22Good evening, ladies and gentlemen.
00:25It's an honor to be in your midst this evening.
00:30They've asked me to speak about Nigeria at 65, what will happen in the next 65 years.
00:40Permit me to say the next 65 years, almost all of us, apart from Citi's son, who is sitting over there, will be dead.
00:48So, like the economists say, in the long run, we'll all be dead.
00:53In 65 years, I don't expect that I will be around here much longer.
00:58But, permit me to say a few things before I give my thoughts.
01:04First thing I want to say is that whatever I will be saying today is my thoughts.
01:12I'm obviously not going to be making any policy statements today.
01:18So, if you hear anything that sounds like a policy statement, you didn't hear right.
01:23So, it is not a policy statement, it is just my thoughts.
01:28So, that's the first thing.
01:30So, the second thing is I'm representing the governor of the central bank.
01:34Unfortunately, he's not able to be with us today.
01:38He has other commitments, and he's asked me to come here and to speak to you.
01:44So, I'll be speaking to you.
01:45Permit me also to say to stand on existing protocols.
01:53I didn't know if any was established, but whatever was established, permit me to stand on those protocols.
01:59I generally don't like standing on protocols established by others because I'm a risk manager.
02:04And, I think the risk of standing on what somebody else has built is always very high because you tend to fall under the weight of their structure.
02:16Having said that, Nigeria is 65.
02:20And, anybody in this room who is 65 years old will know that at 65, you have a lot of pains.
02:35Some pains that happen in the morning, some pains that happen at night, and some pains that happen during the afternoons.
02:44Life at 65 is characterized by pains.
02:50And, as a country, we are also facing some pains.
02:54The good news is that we have come a long way from where we were 65 years ago.
03:05We have achieved a lot.
03:08I refuse to be part of those who think Nigeria has not achieved anything, or Nigeria is a failed state, or Nigeria is not doing well.
03:18I think we've missed a lot of opportunities.
03:23We could have been a lot further from where we want, closer to where we want to be than where we are today.
03:29But, we have achieved a lot.
03:32And, we must recognize the fact that we have achieved a lot because it's only on the back of what you've achieved over time that you can ride to achieve a lot more.
03:42If you think you are a failure, guess what?
03:48You will be a failure, even in the future.
03:51So, I believe that Nigeria is a success, and I believe that we will succeed in the future.
03:57So, what gives me this positive thinking, this positive feeling?
04:05Very simple.
04:07I want to focus on the last two or three years because I think that's a good place to start.
04:14In the last two or three years, especially with the coming of the Tinebou administration,
04:18we have seen some things change that we thought would never change.
04:25And, we need to celebrate those things.
04:29So, what are they?
04:31For instance, one of the key things that I believe has changed, and I think we should celebrate more,
04:38is a simple thing that we now produce 1.68 million barrels of oil, of crude oil, per day.
04:45At a point in the history of Nigeria, we thought producing 1.1 million barrels of oil per day was the maximum we could ever do.
04:57But today, we are doing 1.68, which is much, much closer to the 2 million barrels per day that is our quota.
05:07And the fact that we have gotten this far says to me that we can even get further.
05:12One of the big things, and I was just talking to my good friend, Matthew, over there,
05:19and he was arguing with me about inflation.
05:24I'm sure that many of you knew when inflation rate was 34% or 36% or even more.
05:31Today, inflation is 18%.
05:34That's something we should celebrate.
05:40I know of countries who have had inflation in the 30% and have never been able to come down.
05:48We've come down significantly, and if we continue to work hard, we will continue to bring inflation rate down.
05:56And he was saying to me, is it really true that inflation is coming down?
06:00And I said, yeah, go check.
06:03Go check.
06:04For those of you who are women who go to market, who go to the stores,
06:09because I look around here, there are very few women, I think, who go to market here.
06:13They all go to supermarkets.
06:18You will know that rice prices have come down from 90-something thousand per bag to about 60,000 per bag.
06:24That's a significant drop.
06:26All right?
06:31Well, you know, the thing with 11,000 was that at the time we were buying at 11,000, the FX rate was what?
06:40Hmm?
06:41You know, so the truth of the matter is that, yes, things have gone up, but things are getting better,
06:47and things will get better.
06:49One of the things that I say is that our non-oil exports have also significantly increased.
06:58Today, we're talking about 96% of our GDP is from the non-oil sector.
07:05At a point in this country, 90% of our GDP came from oil revenues.
07:12Today, the reverse is the case.
07:14And I think that if we are honest to ourselves, we have seen significant improvement,
07:26and we can build on that improvement.
07:30I've talked about generally, general terms, but let me come to the CBN,
07:35because I think that perhaps is what I'm most qualified to talk about.
07:38We know that the CBN, our focus is twin focus.
07:46One is exchange rate stability and financial system stability.
07:52With regards to exchange rate stability, I will say this.
07:57If you are in Nigeria, or you have been in Nigeria in the last few years,
08:02you will know that we have come from a point where exchange rate was changing every day
08:07in the upward direction to a situation today where exchange rate is coming down on a day on,
08:13well, at least it is stable, and it's coming down gradually.
08:17At a point, we were touching 2,000 Naira to a dollar,
08:22and they were all prediction that it was going to get to 2,500.
08:25Today, we are more around 1,400 and something.
08:30That's a significant gain.
08:32And we must acknowledge that something has happened,
08:36and something has been done to achieve that amount of appreciation in the Naira.
08:42I mean, this is a point that perhaps you should clap for the CBN.
08:51One of the things that we have also done,
08:53and what we have worked hard to do is to bring down inflation.
08:58Many people said, when we came up with all the tightening and all of that,
09:03they said, look, you are wasting time.
09:05Tightening is not going to help the inflation.
09:08It's not going to make anything happen.
09:10But today, I can tell you that that tightening has achieved its objective of bringing down inflation.
09:18And don't only believe me, you can also listen to what the rating agencies are saying about Nigeria.
09:30Fitch, Moody's increased their rating to B3.
09:34Fitch has increased their rating to B.
09:36These all point to one thing.
09:39They believe more, and they think that the reforms we are making is achieving its purpose.
09:45One of the things that the governor, Olai Emekadosu, focused on when he came in as governor,
09:54is essentially two things.
09:57Growth, stability, without impacting on transparency and accountability.
10:07And what does that mean?
10:08It means we want to grow this economy.
10:12We want to make things work in such a way that there is transparency.
10:19And one of the key things that we have done in that area is ensure that in the foreign exchange market,
10:27there is enough transparency that everybody can see and understand what the rate of the Naira is at any given time.
10:36We cleared the situation where we had four or five or even more different exchange rates.
10:43And today we have one exchange rate.
10:47And I think that's an achievement.
10:50Because even the black market rates today,
10:53the difference between the black market rate and the official market rate
10:58is below the 10% margin that the World Bank considers as multiple exchange rates.
11:06So, a lot of good work has been done.
11:10And that, I think, is a great foundation for us to build the next 65 years.
11:16Let me say a few words about where I think we should be going in the next 65 years.
11:24I think one of the great things that this country has going for it
11:29is the energy, the intellect, and the ability, and the skills of these young people.
11:37And I think one of the big achievements that we can do to ourselves
11:43is not to create a platform for them to achieve their aspirations
11:48and for them to be the best that they can be.
11:52And that's why, as the Central Bank of Nigeria,
11:56we are committed to creating a level playing field for everyone to prosper,
12:02including our young people, especially our young people.
12:07I'm sure many of you would have heard the governor speak to young people
12:10in his governor's address, annual address to young people.
12:16And that was done a few months ago at the London Business School.
12:20And that's going to be a continuing theme
12:22that we are going to focus on how do we help the young people
12:26to be the best that they can be.
12:29I also must thank the president, Tinubu, for the NEFON.
12:35And I think that's a great, great initiative
12:37to give students the opportunity to go to school
12:42without having to worry about the cost of going to school.
12:46They can borrow enough to pay their school fees.
12:49They can borrow enough to maintain themselves through their university days.
12:55And I think that will create a great platform for growth in the future.
12:59I also think that we need to create a platform for industry to do well.
13:08The government has said they want to achieve a $1 trillion economy in eight years.
13:13The only way you can achieve a $1 trillion economy in eight years
13:19is to make sure that every part of the economy is pulling its weight
13:23and doing the best that they can do.
13:26The only way they can do the best they can do
13:29is if everybody, every industry, have the same opportunity,
13:35the same numbers, the same statistics to achieve what they are going to achieve.
13:40If one person can get $1 at $400 and another person has to get it at $1,000,
13:46that's not a level playing field.
13:49We must create a level playing field where all industries have the opportunity
13:54to work and to achieve the best that they can achieve.
13:59Finally, I look forward to the next 65 years with a lot of excitement.
14:09I look forward to Nigeria where a lot of the achievements we are seeing
14:16in the arts, in music, in technology, in digital platforms,
14:25that those would drive our economy to a new place
14:28where we'll all be proud of the Nigeria that we all belong to.
14:35Finally, I totally enjoy these kind of events.
14:42And the reason why I enjoy it is because these are the places
14:46where we have these new ideas, new opportunities
14:50on how we can move Nigeria forward.
14:54And I am looking forward to the report of this summit
14:57to give us new ideas, new opportunities, new partnerships
15:03to grow the economy and to make the financial system more stable.
15:08My thanks go to the organizers, Camelia and Anita,
15:15who are spearheading the organization.
15:18I thank them very much.
15:19I thank all of you for attending.
15:21And I wish you the very, very best in what you do.
Be the first to comment