00:00So, they fell an average of 2,500 a week in the four weeks to November 1, John.
00:05That's the headline coming from ADP right now.
00:08On the one hand, that's a soft number, but it perhaps maybe suggests that the pace of those losses is slowing a little bit.
00:13Remember, it's a new data series.
00:15We're trying to get our heads around this.
00:17But the bigger picture is it's built into what's expected to be an important week for giving us more broader detail on the jobs market, ADP detail today.
00:25We're going to get non-farm payrolls on Friday.
00:28Today, expectations are for maybe around 50,000-odd jobs gained in the month.
00:33Unemployment rates staying stable.
00:35But both indicators, ADP today and payrolls on Friday, are all expected to lean into what's expected to be an ongoing soft labour market for the time being, at least.
00:43Massive range on estimates that I'm seeing.
00:46And these estimates keep changing.
00:47So, city groups at 105.
00:49So, that's Andrew Honhorst.
00:50This is for payrolls on Thursday.
00:52And at the low, Scotiabank at negative 20.
00:55Andrew, if you're at the central bank, the Federal Reserve, going into the December meeting, you've been told you're not getting an unemployment rate for the month of October.
01:02I don't know what the November jobs report is going to look like.
01:05How useful is September and September alone, together with a high-frequency read from ADP and some jobless claims that seem to be OK?
01:13Yeah, it's an interesting time, John.
01:16So, the September data should be somewhat clean, as you know.
01:19But, again, that's so far in the rearview mirror now.
01:21The October data will be much shoppier, as you've just explained.
01:25Obviously, complicating the picture for any central banker or policymaker in this.
01:29The partial indicators are all interesting, too.
01:31You know, we've had an indicator this week of advanced notices on layoffs surging over the month of October, combined with the anecdotal headlines from companies letting go of staff.
01:39It's all, while it's a mixed picture, it all seems to be leaning towards, at the very least, a softening labour market.
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