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  • 2 days ago

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00:00Is this a market reset, a sell-off, or a market crash that we're kind of getting near, or neither?
00:05Or none of the above?
00:07I think it's a correction, so I don't know if one of those was part of that, but I think it's a healthy correction.
00:13You get them every one to two years. Sometimes we forget that.
00:16And we just got off of a period of no data, valuations had gotten really high,
00:22and there is a legitimate question around how much companies are spending versus how much they're making in terms of cash flow,
00:30and in the largest companies, so that's going to affect the broader market.
00:33So you're talking about big tech and AI.
00:34I'm talking about big tech and AI, and obviously Amazon's borrowing, outsizing it to $15 billion doesn't necessarily help that narrative.
00:42So I think you just need to start seeing proof that there's a return on invested capital.
00:47There are other things that are working, though, in the market.
00:49We'll get to some of the things that are working, but I want to know what the proof would look like in your view.
00:54What do you need to see from some of these companies to show, okay, the money that we're spending is actually paying off?
01:00I think you need to start seeing money from the actual investments that they're making in terms of, like, AI investments,
01:08how it actually reaches the consumer, how it reaches enterprise.
01:11Like, we know in the private area, Anthropic is doing a little bit more revenue, right,
01:15because they're enterprise-focused versus, like, an open AI that's more consumer-focused.
01:20So I think if people are investing money in places that are going to prove out that revenue comes,
01:26I think the other thing is that the change in the one big beautiful bill, right, gave that 100% expensing.
01:32And that's kind of something that I'm looking forward to in the future as well,
01:35which is, like, that's not just AI investing, but also in other tech and infrastructure.
01:40And, like, that can start to lift the market, too.
01:42One of the things I wanted to ask you about, you shared some notes with our producer, Ariel Agami,
01:46and you said, or you noted, global markets have fundamentally changed.
01:51Individual investors are now a core part of the financial ecosystem, reshaping how capital markets function.
01:56What was once the domain of institutions is now open and accessible to millions of individuals worldwide.
02:01I understand where you're coming from, but I was thinking about what Dr. Adam Posen,
02:05president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said coming off of the meeting
02:09between President Trump and Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia,
02:13that this idea that capital flows actually are being controlled to some extent by moves out of the White House,
02:20whether it's taking stakes in companies or it's the AI spend that is controlling so much
02:26or it's what some say is a transactional White House where invest here and you get this.
02:32It's very different in some regard in a lot of ways from what we've had in the past.
02:38I've personally never watched so many political shows in my career of over 20 years.
02:42Like, that is part of what you have to know as an investor.
02:45But it makes me question, like, do individual investors really still have a lot of say here?
02:50I think they do, but not necessarily in the biggest companies.
02:52Like, you know, I think there's they actually are seeing some of the individual investors,
02:56I think, are seeing things before the institutional investors and that they many are so aligned with the White House
03:01and what they're doing that they're like, this is what I think the future is.
03:05I also think that it's not necessarily showing up in the largest companies.
03:09There are other companies, smaller ones that they kind of gather together and sort of community invest.
03:14And those aren't the biggest companies, but they are ones that are more volatile, but they have a longer time horizon.
03:20And most of the people on our platform are average age of 35, you know, more than two thirds of our company is millennials and Gen Z.
03:29So that's what, you know, I think it's the same thing as being on a trading desk and kind of talking about investment ideas together.
03:36And now they're in X doing the same thing.
03:39And Steph, they're probably watching crypto closely, too.
03:41Bitcoin down 25 to 30 percent, depending on when you look at it from those all-time highs just last month.
03:46What does that do? Not for your customer and not for the Robinhood user, but what does that do for sentiment or does it give any indication of sentiment?
03:55I think it does because you have seen actually some really big institutions sell some large positions, too, recently, not just in Bitcoin, but obviously in NVIDIA and other names.
04:05I think, but then there was buyers, too, from Berkshire Hathaway.
04:08Anyway, I think I think those that play in the crypto space are very used to large swings and they're, you know, I think there's kind of a meme out there that says if you're like when stock investors have a big drag down, they're like, you know, the crypto investors are like welcome to the way it feels.
04:26So I actually think they're kind of used to it. We haven't really seen a huge shift.
04:30If anything, most of our customers, when they're investing, they play the volatility in that when it goes up a lot, they'll trim their positions.
04:37When it goes down a lot, they do add.
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