00:00Clearly, normalization is on President Trump's mind.
00:03The question is whether the crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman,
00:07thinks it's the right time to go down that route.
00:09What's your perspective?
00:12So this is going to be the crown prince's first visit
00:15and return to the United States since his last trip,
00:18which unfortunately was overshadowed by the death of Jamal Khashoggi.
00:23But since then, the ties between the U.S. and MBS in Saudi Arabia
00:29have increased and really recovered significantly.
00:33If you recall, when President Trump returned to office in January,
00:36his first trip was to Riyadh,
00:39where he announced a $600 billion Saudi investment in the United States.
00:43Now, President Trump has not been subtle about what he wants from MBS in this trip,
00:48which is to see Saudi Arabia normalize relations with Israel
00:52and to enter and be part of the reinvigoration of the Abraham Accords.
00:56But the crown prince has been clear that there won't be negotiation on this
01:02unless he sees and is at this least an actual recognition of Palestinian statehood.
01:08So this time around, the crown prince finds himself in a very different position
01:12where perhaps the Saudis have a larger bargaining chip to play here
01:18because President Trump actually needs him.
01:20Okay, so let me just ask you about the bargaining chip perspective
01:25because Axios were reporting this morning
01:28that the U.S. may be willing to sell Saudi Arabia F-35s
01:33and we know that Israel is the only country in the region that actually has the F-35s.
01:37But however, in exchange for eventual talks on normalization,
01:42how far do you think the crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, would be willing to go
01:46if it meant that they'd be able to boost up their own defense?
01:50So there's a couple of things that are really important to President Trump and both to MBS,
01:55which is the acknowledgement that Saudi Arabia's recent defense pact with Pakistan
02:00underlines that Riyadh is actually moving in a position where it can leverage what it wants
02:06and what it needs from countries like Russia and China.
02:09And they're expanding their influence in the region.
02:12So Washington really needs to keep Saudi Arabia close in its fold.
02:17And so there is a leverage that MBS comes to the United States with.
02:23And again, the negotiations on things like artificial intelligence and mining
02:26and earth minerals that the U.S. needs from Saudi Arabia also put him in a different position.
02:32Now remember, the Saudi Public Investment Fund has become one of the world's most active sovereign investors,
02:38especially in the United States.
02:40And these are things that matter to President Trump.
02:42And so he'll be willing to give the crown prince what he wants in the name of normalization
02:48because it's also tied to these economic and political deals that President Trump needs from MBS.
02:56Yeah. What do you think are the deliverables that the crown prince himself is looking for?
03:01Is it a beefed up security deal?
03:03Is it cooperation on civil nuclear plans as well?
03:07That's something that they've been working on for many years as well, going all the way back to the Biden administration.
03:12What would be deemed a success for the crown prince?
03:16It'll be the nuclear plans.
03:18It'll be the negotiation on security.
03:20It'll be the fighter jets.
03:22But it'll also be the positionality of Saudi Arabia returning to the fold as the major player, bargaining player in the region.
03:33If you recall, since the 80s, Saudi Arabia has been the pillar of stability in the region, also with Egypt.
03:41But it's really because of their deep relationship with the United States.
03:44That relationship has waned.
03:47But given the current political climate, the United States actually needs to see a return of Saudi Arabia in the region.
03:53And the crown prince could be leveraging that need to get what he wants for his country, but also speaking in the terms that actually impress President Trump.
04:02And so they both stand to gain from this in their own respective areas.
04:06But it could be a repositioning of Saudi Arabia as an increased power player in the region, where in the past few years we've seen countries like Qatar and Turkey increase their footprint.
04:17And Saudi Arabia is really returning to the fold in that regard.
04:20And President Trump can't help it deliver.
04:23Do you get the sense that then President Trump may actually be able to separate the issues of normalization with Israel, the Palestinian cause, from some of the other priorities that you were just listing now?
04:38Is he capable of compartmentalizing?
04:42So there's so many issues on the table that also include the de-dollarization happening in terms of oil.
04:49So President Trump thinks everything is transactional, but everything is like a New York City real estate deal.
04:56And if I can get what I want, I can give a little bit of leverage.
05:00These are all interconnected, and they're tied to long-term regional stability.
05:04And so normalization for President Trump perhaps is really about a return to the relationship being on economic deals in the region rather than political stability in the region.
05:14The Crown Prince now is in a place to leverage what President Trump wants.
05:20And in the language that the Crown Prince has been using in the past couple of years, moving closer to China and Russia even, puts him in a position where President Trump is going to be willing to, in his terms, negotiate more in this transactional manner that President Trump entertains foreign leaders in.
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