Higel: Iraqi Political System Rotten to Its Core

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00:00Let's just start here. Where does Iraq find itself in the midst of this current election,

00:06especially considering some of the dynamics and the changes that we've seen

00:09over the past two decades for the country and the past year for the region?

00:15Good morning. Thanks for having me.

00:18Yeah, I mean, we always tend to say that Iraq is at a crossroads,

00:22and it seems to be around every election.

00:25This time around, it's actually one of those elections that have happened

00:30against a fairly stable situation where Iraq is the only country

00:39that has hosted resistance groups that actually hasn't been targeted by Israel,

00:43for instance, something which the government has taken pride in

00:47in terms of being able to keep Iraq out of the regional escalation.

00:52And the incumbent prime minister has, during this time,

00:56also managed to provide Iraqis with slightly better infrastructure,

01:02some tangible differences that Iraqis have been able to see,

01:05and that has spoken to his relative popularity in contrast to previous prime ministers.

01:12But having said all of that, domestically, Iraqis have also voted with their feet.

01:18Most of them didn't show up to the polls, and that is due to widespread disillusionment

01:25with the political system that has really been increasing for every election.

01:32And I don't think that this election is going to be a significant departure

01:36in terms of how the country has been governed over the last two decades.

01:41Can you speak to some of that disillusionment, and especially some of the proxies

01:47that are potentially at play in this election here?

01:53Right. So, I mean, the problem is really with the entire political establishment.

01:59We very often talk about the Iran-backed groups, which pose a threat in and of themselves

02:08because of the arms that they control.

02:14But really, the political system is rotten to its core.

02:20Corruption is widespread. It is not concentrated with a few groups.

02:26And I think that is what Iraqis are most disillusioned about

02:29and why we've seen participation drop over time,

02:33because really that problem has increased.

02:36It hasn't really decreased.

02:39And even as Iraq has stabilized since the military defeat of ISIS,

02:44which is now eight years ago, there isn't much that has been down in terms of reform.

02:50We don't have really a private sector that can take on the job provision

02:58that the state now provides.

03:01The economy is completely oil-based, or at least up to 90%.

03:06And the demographic pressure in Iraq is only increasing.

03:14So we're 45 million today.

03:17We're going to be 80 million by 2050.

03:19You already have a very high unemployment rate in Iraq.

03:26So that is only going to worsen.

03:27So I think that is a lot of what speaks to the Iraqis not having trust in the political system.

03:35And then we haven't even started to speak about the fact that armed groups

03:39are still running rogue in the country and very often able to act on their own devices.

03:47So what then are you looking out for, Lahib, considering a lot of the confluence of issues

03:56sort of at play here?

03:57We just had over 7,000 candidates here.

04:01Is it likely that the incumbent will be re-elected?

04:04What should we be paying attention to?

04:06Well, so strangely, Sudan is likely to come up top with the largest number of seats,

04:18but that is no guarantee for him winning a second term.

04:22And it's not because of him.

04:26It's because of also how the system is set up,

04:29whereby usually a compromised candidate is decided upon by the main political blocs.

04:38So let's say that Sudani actually manages to form the so-called largest bloc in parliament.

04:44That isn't the majority, but just the largest political bloc.

04:48His bloc is supposed to be able to put forward a candidate.

04:54Even in that case, it doesn't mean that he as a person would necessarily take the premiership.

05:02And that is because ever since Nouriel Maliki, who's the only prime minister who's won a second term,

05:08there's been somewhat of a taboo in Iraq for two-term prime ministers.

05:12And that is because of the fear of people monopolizing the executive power.

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