What would a ‘war’ between Venezuela and the US look like?

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00:00The USS Gerald R. Ford, the world's largest and most powerful aircraft carrier, is in the Caribbean.

00:06Is it the latest sign the U.S. is charting a path toward war with Venezuela?

00:11And if so, how might that play out?

00:16President Donald Trump deployed the Ford and its strike group to the Caribbean

00:20to help combat drug smugglers and narco-terrorists in the region.

00:24The Ford CSG and its nearly 4,000 personnel join an already impressive list of U.S. assets in the region.

00:32A list that includes another 10,000 sailors and marines aboard an amphibious ready group,

00:39several guided missile destroyers, a not-so-secret special operations vessel called the MV Ocean Trader,

00:46and at least one nuclear-powered submarine.

00:49Oh, and for good measure, the U.S. has another 10 F-35B fifth-generation multi-role stealth fighters

00:56stationed on Puerto Rico.

00:59It's all more than enough to take out any targets in the area, cartel or otherwise.

01:05Now, we've reported on this before, so for a full breakdown of the legal arguments

01:09the White House is using to justify the Caribbean operations, check out SAN.com.

01:15In the meantime, let's go ahead and take a look at how U.S. operations in Venezuela

01:19might play out against the Maduro regime.

01:22Obviously, we have a map here of the area in question,

01:26and these different dots represent some, but not all, of the potential targets the U.S. might hit.

01:33They are mostly air and naval stations with a few army or dual-use facilities kind of sprinkled in.

01:40Like I said, not an exhaustive list by any stretch, but some sites that the U.S. might find some interest in.

01:48The El Libertador Air Base, which is right here, this yellow dot,

01:54that is the main Venezuelan air base and logistics hub.

01:58The country's main military complex and the head of the defense ministry

02:02would be located here in the capital of Caracas.

02:05And on the island of Orchila, that's kind of a strategically located air and naval base,

02:12Venezuela has some forces there as well.

02:15As you can see, most of all of these facilities are in the northern part of the country,

02:21along the coastal region.

02:24Not a surprise, most Venezuelans live close to the coast.

02:28Now, according to experts at places like the Center for Strategic and International Studies,

02:34the U.S. does not have enough resources in the area to launch a land invasion into Venezuela.

02:41There are only about 14,000 total U.S. personnel in the region,

02:45and American doctrine dictates not getting into a fight like that

02:49unless you can overwhelm your opponent with vastly superior numbers.

02:54Venezuela's combined armed forces total around 100,000,

02:59and Maduro says the country's militia numbers in the tens of thousands.

03:05So, long-range strikes seem the most likely,

03:08followed up by a potential for some special operations forces carrying out covert missions.

03:14To stop incoming U.S. missiles and attack aircraft,

03:18Venezuela would need to rely on its inventory of mostly Russian-made air defenses.

03:22Systems like the S-300VM or Buk-M2.

03:27They are mobile, but Ukraine's armed forces are taking out those systems left and right in its war against Russia,

03:33so it's safe to assume the U.S. is not going to have a problem with the older, mostly outdated systems either.

03:40Venezuela has 18 older U.S.-made F-16s and 31 Russian-made Su-30 fighter jets,

03:47but most are not operational, and neither could hold a candle to any of the U.S. fighters in the region.

03:56On the sea, Venezuela's much smaller navy would not hold out long against the U.S. either.

04:02Aside from several smaller missile and patrol boats, including two from Iran,

04:06Venezuela's maritime force posture rests on two Corvettes, two frigates,

04:12and two non-operational, conventionally-powered submarines.

04:17If we go ahead and assume the U.S. and Venezuela get into conflict,

04:22all signs point to the U.S. owning the skies fairly quickly

04:25and enforcing a naval blockade without much pushback.

04:30Now, that's not to say there might not be a chance for possible American losses,

04:34but the experts I spoke to while researching this topic said

04:37that the Venezuelan military really doesn't pose much of a threat to the U.S.

04:42Okay, so, the U.S. owns the skies,

04:45say that the U.S. also enforces a naval blockade

04:49around the northern part of the country.

04:52At that point, F-35s, drones, or a combination of the two

04:57could then be used to call in direct fire missions on some precise locations

05:02like military bases or older runways and airstrips

05:06that the cartels might also be using.

05:09But a large boots-on-the-ground style operation still doesn't seem likely.

05:14As we said earlier, most of the Venezuelan population lives in the central and,

05:18or excuse me, most of the population lives in the north,

05:22leaving the central and southern portions largely sparsely populated.

05:28So, U.S. boots on the ground would force most of the Maduro's military that is loyal to him,

05:35and the militia would have really nowhere else to go

05:39but south into the sparsely populated rural areas,

05:44which would create sort of a guerrilla-style insurgent war

05:50similar to what the U.S. faced in Iraq and Afghanistan.

05:54So, while Congress has declined to block the president's current operations

05:58against the alleged drug smuggling boats,

06:02support for military action in Venezuela

06:04could and likely would wane the more this conflict escalates.

06:10For more reporting like this, download the Straight Arrow News app today.

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