The UK has experienced more named storms than at any time since the system began. Scientists explain the factors driving the turbulent season and what it means for future preparedness.
00:00It appears that there are more storms than ever before in the UK.
00:04The most recent storm season was the most active since 2015, when naming began.
00:10But what is that? What causes seasons to be more or less stormy?
00:15And, most importantly, what can we all do to keep ourselves safe when a storm hits?
00:20Well, I spoke to the experts to find out.
00:24There are lots of key factors when you look at how stormy a season can be.
00:28Part of it is natural variability.
00:31There's a certain amount of randomness inherent in the system.
00:35But there are some contributing factors that you can clearly identify.
00:38One being the extraordinarily high sea surface temperatures that we saw across the Atlantic during that season.
00:44That adds extra moisture and energy to produce stronger storms.
00:50But another key factor, of course, is the position and the strength of the jet stream.
00:55This is a fast-blown current of air that sits five to eight miles above us in the sky.
01:01And it acts as a conveyor belt for storms across the Atlantic.
01:05And during the 23 to 24 storm season, the jet stream was particularly strong.
01:10But it was also aimed directly towards the UK for a lot of the time during that season.
01:15So it picked up a lot of low-pressure systems and hurled them straight towards the UK.
01:20From the 2022 season to 2023 season, we went from only two named storms to 12, you know.
01:26Is the jet stream part of the contribution towards that sort of extreme year-to-year swing?
01:32Or is it something else?
01:33The jet stream is the most important player when it comes to looking at seasonal variability.
01:38And certainly when you look at the difference in the jet stream strength and its position from 22, 23 to 23, 24, the differences are stark.
01:4722, 23, the jet stream was much weaker and it was typically to the north of the UK, allowing higher pressure often over the UK rather than low pressure.
01:56Then the following season, the jet stream was much more powerful and it was aimed directly towards the UK.
02:01So this season-to-season variability in the strength and the position of the jet stream is one of the key factors when looking at how stormy a season can be.
02:10The UK as a whole is getting wetter as a result of climate change.
02:14A warmer atmosphere around the globe can hold more moisture and we are seeing a 16% increase.
02:22We have seen a 16% increase in the last decade in terms of the UK's rainfall.
02:27And much of that increase has occurred during the winter, especially across western parts of the UK.
02:35So winters are getting wetter and a lot of that increase in rainfall is occurring during stormy periods.
02:42From the public safety perspective, you know, what's the single most important message that, you know, you want people to understand going into future storm seasons?
02:49When storms hit, the weather can be very hazardous, particularly on mountaintops or around the coast and when travelling.
02:59So the key message is to pay attention to the forecasts and the warnings.
03:05Avoid those areas that are likely to be particularly hazardous, such as coasts or going up a hill or a mountain
03:11and heading out and, you know, driving a car and so on when roads can be badly affected.
03:17So the key message is to pay attention to the forecasts and the warnings, step-to-date with travel updates.
03:23And, you know, if at all possible, just stay indoors and wait out for the storm.
03:29And, you know, if at all possible, just stay indoors, step-to-date with travel updates, step-to-date with travel updates.
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