Storm Amy is intensifying and will bring damaging winds to parts of the UK. Northern Britain will bear the brunt of this storm and amber warnings are in place. Watch the storm develop and see exactly where the strongest winds are expected.
00:00The big question, I guess, is how bad is Amy going to be? And for that, let's look back at what happened first thing this morning.
00:09And the best way to do that is to show you, Amy, here on this wide view. That's Amy, the storm system.
00:16Here's the UK and the Republic of Ireland. And this is the jet stream, the fast moving ribbon of air high up in the atmosphere that tends to steer and power and intensify these lows.
00:28And that's exactly what's happening with Amy. We'll zoom in a little bit and we can take a pressure reading.
00:35So this is six o'clock this morning. Let's see what the central pressure of Amy is.
00:40977 hectopaticals, 977 millibars. Remember that number. And then let's watch what happens.
00:46If we just play through what's happening over the next 12 hours, firstly six hours.
00:53So this is where we are now. Notice how it's moving in and the jet stream is intensifying this darker zone on the jet stream.
01:00That's the core of the jet. That's the really strong winds in excess of 200 miles an hour.
01:05And as Amy crosses the jet stream, it's really starting to pop, really starting to intensify.
01:11The isobar is just coming out of it. This is what's called a left exit.
01:14So you've got the jet stream here. The winds actually start to ease here.
01:19But this is called the left exit area. And that is an area where storms develop.
01:24Low pressure systems intensify as they go through this particular zone.
01:28So at midday, we are already down to 966 hectopaticals.
01:34So in just six hours, it's dropped 11.
01:37But the real intensification is happening through the course of this afternoon.
01:42So if we just take that off, let's zoom in a little bit and watch again as those isobars really jump out again as it crosses through the jet stream,
01:50comes out the other side. Let's stop it there at six o'clock this evening.
01:54So another six hours have passed. And what have we got now? 953 hectopaticals.
01:59So remember, it was 977 at six this morning, 953 through this afternoon.
02:04So it has dropped 24 millibars in just 12 hours, which is the definition of explosive cyclogenesis, the definition of a weather bomb.
02:15That is a real term. When low pressure systems drop by 24 hectopaticals within 24 hours, then that is a weather bomb.
02:22So we can say that that is explosive cyclogenesis that has occurred or is occurring right now.
02:27As I speak to you, it's in the middle of that. Storm Amy hasn't quite done just yet.
02:32We can probably take the jet stream off now just to show that low popping out, popping out and still intensifying,
02:39probably reaching its lowest depth about, yeah, about there, somewhere near the Northern Isle.
02:44So let's zoom in a little bit. So this is there.
02:48Oh, the warnings have come on. Don't want to show those just yet.
02:50Let's go back in time a little bit.
02:54There's that low in there. Yeah, 944 is the intensity of that low pressure system.
03:00So that is probably at its peak as it's going up towards the Northern Isles there.
03:05And that means it's dropped. 77 takeaway, 44 is 33 by my math.
03:12So it's dropped 33 hectopaticals in just under 24 hours.
03:16But that rapid intensification is happening, as I say, through the course of the afternoon.
03:20What does that mean for the wind speeds?
03:23Let's take a look at that, because as we let's take that off, rewind the clock.
03:31Notice with this structure that the isobars are closest together in this southwestern corner of Amy.
03:38That is fairly typical for these areas of low pressure.
03:41The isobars much further apart here than they are here.
03:43And it's this little core. And as it develops there, that's why we're particularly concerned about initially Northern Ireland this afternoon.
03:50But then increasingly as it pops its way across the far northwest of Scotland, we are looking at those winds really picking up as it crosses Harris.
04:01Actually, the low may well cross Harris. Actually, the winds may not be as strong in Harris as itself.
04:05But further south in this little zone here, that's where the strongest winds are going to be.
04:10Let's then put those winds on and look at that in more detail.
04:14This is as we go through the rest of today. So this is showing the strongest winds as we go through today and tonight.
04:20So this isn't the winds at this time. This is the strongest winds in the period between now and Saturday.
04:25And notice in this little zone here, we've got that corner of Northern Ireland where those winds are likely to be 70 to 80 miles an hour.
04:33But also highlight this zone here on the west coast of Scotland, where the winds are likely to be in excess of 90 miles an hour.
04:39And yes, there is even a black core in there, not across land at this part, but just angling in.
04:45Let me zoom in a little bit. You can see that Sky and Tyree are very close to where those winds could touch 100 miles an hour.
04:55Now, that is pretty unusual. Yes, we know northwest Scotland gets hit by very strong winds frequently, but 100 mile an hour winds,
05:02certainly 90 plus mile an hour winds are not typical. And when the trees are in full leaf like they are at the moment,
05:08that is likely to do some significant damage and some serious problems.
05:13That's why we've got those amber warnings in place. So those strongest winds coming into Northern Ireland this afternoon
05:19and then extending into that northwestern corner of Scotland. That's where we could well see those, the peak of the winds.
05:26As I mentioned, let's just go back a little bit and take, as that storm system moves in, the strong winds pick up in this zone.
05:34Notice that little pocket there near storm away where the winds really haven't got over 50 miles an hour at this stage
05:39because the low is going over the centre, almost like being in the eye of the storm.
05:42But then we will see the strongest winds here in Harris as the low moves its way northwards on the backside of it.
05:49Let me show you that in another way because they're the cumulative winds.
05:52Let me show you the winds as we go through time now.
05:55So this is this afternoon, those peak winds coming into Northern Ireland.
05:58I'll just play it, actually, because then you'll see the strongest winds a little better.
06:01Pause it there, zooming in just that northern coast of Northern Ireland in line for those winds of 18 miles an hour or more.
06:11Then that little pocket of strong winds moves its way up towards the northwest of Scotland.
06:16Notice the light winds at this stage, of course, not light, but lighter, not on the register, so less than 50 miles an hour.
06:22But you kind of get a double whammy across northern Scotland because you get this section of winds coming in this evening
06:28into western Scotland. And then if we fast forward into tonight, notice the winds have changed direction,
06:35but we get a secondary pulse. The low is now up here, clearing away, but we get the secondary northwesterly winds.
06:43So the winds are initially west or southwesterly. And then as we go through tomorrow,
06:48we get another pulse of those strong winds coming in.
06:50Not quite as strong as the ones today, but in here, that gusts, those gusts likely to reach 80 miles an hour
06:57and perhaps a little bit more along those exposed parts of northern Scotland.
07:01So it's a double whammy with those winds. Northeastern parts of Scotland also susceptible.
07:06So that is why we've got two amber warnings now for northern Scotland,
07:10one covering the west through later today and then one covering the north and northeast as we go into tomorrow.
07:16So that's the winds. We also have some heavy rain coming in also.
07:22And notice also further south, there'll be some lively gusts, particularly as this system moves through tonight.
07:27The gusts will suddenly pick up. So we do have yellow warnings covering north Wales, north west England.
07:31But even further south, those winds will be quite lively and gusty, particularly as the rain band moves through.
07:37So let's take a look at that.
07:39Mentioned this earlier. Heavy rain coming in now.
07:46Take the warnings off because we don't need those just yet.
07:49Heavy rain is coming in now. There are warnings in place for that.
07:51It's been a very wet week in the northwest, so more rain coming in could cause some further problems.
07:56But let's just take this.
07:58This band of rain as it moves through tonight across England and Wales could, as I say,
08:04or showing signs of line convection.
08:07So this is the cold front end here.
08:08Just look at this really narrow band as it moves through, comes down across the southeast.
08:13So that is through the early hours of the morning.
08:17You may well get woken up by this across parts of the southeast, and it's going to track its way steadily across England and Wales.
08:22It could just suddenly rain very hard for about 10 minutes or so, and the winds will suddenly gust up as that moves through.
08:30So, yes, that is one thing that could wake you up as we go through the night.
08:34But the strongest winds definitely likely to be across northern parts of Scotland.
08:38And as we go through tomorrow, that rain band does pull away quite quickly.
08:42But notice the rain is still pushing in here.
08:45And that's all because Storm Amy is kind of grinding to a halt across the far northwest.
08:50The storm is moving quite quickly at the moment.
08:53And as we go through, as it intensifies from the jet stream, it develops quite quickly.
09:03It moves through.
09:05But then let's take the jet stream off again here.
09:07It kind of slows up a little bit as it approaches the northwest of Scotland.
09:11So that is something we also need to keep an eye on there.
09:13The winds come down in that secondary zone down across northern Scotland.
09:17It kind of grinds to a halt close to Shetland as we go through tomorrow.
09:21So it doesn't kind of whiz away because it's kind of disengaged from the jet stream at this stage.
09:26Not as much as it was before.
09:27Look where the jet is now.
09:29So the jet is down here.
09:30It's not pushing Amy along.
09:32So it's disengaged from the jet.
09:34It becomes quite slow moving, which is why we keep the strong winds lasting well into tomorrow across the south.
09:40Well, across all parts as we go through the course of the day.
09:44Let me show you the warnings.
09:47If I can do that.
09:50That's the button I need.
09:52So these are the warnings.
09:53Let's just go through the rain warnings initially.
09:57So we've got rain warning for Northern Ireland, rain warning for Western Scotland through the rest of today.
10:02And as we go into tomorrow, rain warning expires across northwest Scotland.
10:08We do need to keep our eyes on that as we go through the course of today.
10:11And tonight, more heavy rain incoming.
10:13The wind warnings now go back to where we are now.
10:19I've gone too far.
10:20I've not gone far enough.
10:21The rain or the wind warnings for Northern Ireland and northwest Scotland.
10:26So we have that wind warning for the northwest.
10:29That's probably where the strongest winds are going to be later today.
10:31Northern Ireland, the amber warning runs out at eight o'clock.
10:34We've got strong winds in this zone through the evening time.
10:37And then as we go through into tomorrow, amber warning as the wind switch direction, covering northern parts of Scotland along the Murray Firth to northern parts of Aberdeenshire.
10:48But we do have wind warnings right now covering the whole of the UK for tomorrow.
10:52The gusts across northern England, north Wales, northern Ireland could still be 60 in exposed areas, 70, maybe even 75 miles an hour as that storm system moves through tonight.
11:03And the winds in the south, 50 mile an hour gusts because it's going to be showery nature through tonight.
11:08And of course, we've got that squall line as that line convection moves through tonight.
11:13So, yeah, the main impacts are going to be tonight.
11:16But storm may be still present as we go through Saturday.
11:22So, yeah, the main impacts are going to be tonight.
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